Autonomous Taxis: The Death of Trains and Buses
The disruption of transportation is enormous. Most of us do not ponder the tentacles of this industry.
What we are seeing is going to ripple throughout all of society. It will take a decade for this to unfold. That said, the impact will be felt for decades.
The obvious conclusion about electric robotaxis is to consider the impact on ICE vehicles. This is logical but only looking at the surface level. If we delve a couple of layers down, we see massive impacts.
How about mass transit? This is something that we take for granted especially in major cities. For the last century, subways and buses were the norm. It is to the point now that we do not even consider them. They simply are part of the landscape.
In this article we will discuss how this is going to end.
Autonomous Taxis: The Death of Trains and Buses
Subways cannot compete. Neither can buses. This is the economic reality.
When it comes to costs, mass transit is subsidized. Ultimately, they end up losing money. Few systems turn a profit. Politics spend massive amounts on these services, citing how they are crucial for the populous.
That might be the case. Societal benefits aside, eventually the economics are going to destroy this. When we have an autonomous vehicle that can pick anyone up at his or her door, the days of mass transit are numbered.
How does this affect urban planning? Most major cities have entire departments dedicated to simply moving large numbers of people around. This is dead by the mid 2030s.
For the moment, autonomous vehicles are a novelty. By 2030, they will be the norm, at least in major cities. Once that happens, it simply is riding the growth curve to the point where most are pulled away from mass transit.
What this means is that any politician thinking about a new mass transit project should immediately resign from office. There is no future in this.
Complete Remaking of Society
Autonomation is going to completely remake society.
Every facet of life will be affected by robots. Automated transportation is really nothing more than robots on wheels. The intelligence that will be added to the vehicles as AI systems improve will only compound the issue.
It will be a repeat of the smartphone era. The number of people using a "dumbphone" today is next to nothing. Smartphones got to the point where most everyone could afford one.
Would you invest in a horse farm today? Perhaps if it specialized in breeding thoroughbreds. However, horses use for transportation died out long ago. The same will be true for mass transit. Trains and eventually buses will decline in use as robotaxis increase. When the cost of a driver is eliminated, the barely economically viable option of mass transit gets crushed.
Why spend a few dollars to ride the subway when one can take a robotaxi instead?
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Subway has no traffic jams - if you are to cross from one side of a busy metropolis to the other, it might still be a better option. Likewise with high speed trains to cross the country.
Highspeed trains can easily go 300km/hr. Cars can't or atleast can't safely. Plus insane capacity compared to cars
I haven't really ever looked at how train systems work — that is cost and all — but I imagine that their biggest benefits is that they reduce traffic burdens, which others have commented below.
How would we navigate the increase of cars on the road?
Maybe we can argue that most traffic jams are a product of human error, which autonomously driving vehicles would have less occurance of?
I am curious on how you see that playing out.
Traffic will be mitigated by autonomous vehicles as their will be smoother traffic flow. We see this in any computer versus human run system.
Also tunnels will become an even bigger part of the equation. It is likely that tunneling usurps much of the need for flying cars, at least in urban areas.
one thing i haved dicsovered is the pace at which private business are working to shut down government free services. as you said, mostly it is for politics. mismanagement sets in later so yes robotaxis will have hedge
In places like Mexico City, where I live, it's really hard to imagine the streets (avenues, highways, and our inter-urban two storied eight-lane Periferico) getting even more vehicles. It doesn't matter if they are self-driving, human driven, or some kind of hybrid. Traffic jams are already such a nearly constant phenomenon, that adding to it would seem infeasible. As for the metro, they are typically just as jam-packed with people, but at least they get you through the city at a decent speed.
All selfdriving cars will be connected and at the same speed so no trafficjam.
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We are really fast developing and moving at a very rapid rate. Technology is just advancing day by day actually
Just Buy Tesla stocks to be prepared.