Full Powerdown Completed Part Deux
I have once again completed another personal milestone!
It is a cringe milestone, but a milestone nonetheless. It's not very often that I complete an entire 13-week powerdown cycle without canceling it. In fact, if this post is to be trusted, I've only done it once before in August 2021. That post is exponentially more cringe than this one ever could be.
To provide a frame of reference for such cringe:
LEO was trading at 27 cents and CUB at 66 cents, and I had the audacity to make the claim that both were oversold and a good buy. I really need to stop doing that, as there is very little to gain and quite a bit more to lose by making such statements.
Even more cringe than all that was the chatter about Cakepop and potentially other IDOs getting launched off the CUB platform. Luckily I'm on record as officially advising everyone on Hive to NOT participate, of course at the last second I didn't take my own advice and aped some CUB into it, which as I recall was immediately rug-pulled by a liquidity pool that should have never existed in the first place.
Quietly moving on:
2021 wasn't that long ago, but my entire mindset has shifted quite a bit since then. I would never even consider participating in some kind of fad meme token these days. I wouldn't even bother to research it, and I would advise others to not waste their time either.
Time is the ultimate resource.
I have considered participating in crypto's next round of FOMO-fueled casino mega-gambling, but even if so I will approach it with a completely different strategy.
I 100% guarantee you there is no point in researching the underlying tokenomics of any new asset that gets launched in 2024. That is normally what I would do, as I like to know exactly what I'm getting into and I enjoy figuring out all the game-theory and such, but at the end of the day none of that matters.
Every new token that launches is going to shill you some majestic story about how it's going to create a sustainable ecosystem with long term staying power. How many of them actually do? I'd say 1% is extremely generous. Given this inevitability, is it really worth it to heavily research 100 new networks on the off-chance you'll be able to identify potentially a single good one?
Of course not:
It's a far better strategy to just gamble your ass off in the casino (if that's your thing), cash out quickly, and then wait for the bear market to flush 99% of everything down the shitter. Then once everything has been flushed (literally now) you take the money you set aside (I didn't) and buy into the real networks that have proven themselves in the field rather than in theory.
So which networks have proven themselves?
Not many, if any. You know I'd make a pitch for MAKER if they had spent this time further decentralizing their asset, but all they did was get more centralized by allowing ridiculous mechanics like the ability to collateralize DAI with USDC. I don't know a lot about Rune or ThorChain but they seem like a solid choice.
That being said, neither MAKER or RUNE even launched in 2020 (the year of the new narrative FOMO and extreme DEFI casino gambling). I don't think I can name a single asset that launched in 2020 that has staying power. Like I've said before: I'm over it. Bitcoin and Hive only from here on out honestly. I doubt I'll be shilling anything else for quite some time.
Also imagine if the new narrative of the next casino rampage happens to be decentralized social media. It would be pretty hard to justify participating in that given Hive's intimate association with deso. Then again if the goal is to jump in and out of a project within the matter of days or weeks it might not matter much. Still it would be a bit cringe to sell Hive into some shiny new thing that's essentially guaranteed to implode after running out of bull market momentum. I guess it depends on how successful the gamble is and if said account has more or less Hive after the dust settles.
The lines are closer now than they ever have been.
BigCorn
Here's a fun little analysis I saw on Twitter today. It's pretty wild to see Bitcoin never even come close to dipping lower than it's 4-year-old spot price on the logarithmic scale. Unfortunately we can very clearly see from this chart that history is not on our side in terms of entering a bull market quadrant (octant?) .
I must admit I was pretty disappointed with this cycle's version of a "summer bull run". In 2019 we went from like $4k to $13k and then bled down back to the doubling curve. This time we've gone from $16k to $32k and the exponential doubling trendline towers above the spot price at $86k. So either Bitcoin is comically oversold due to piss-poor legacy economics/recession or the doubling trendline simply isn't a thing anymore.
Personally I still believe that the trendline is still highly significant, even if it currently represents the peak of the next bull market. For frame of reference this would result in a spot price of around $400k at the end of 2025. I have to expect Bitcoin will at least kiss the curve one last time before I retire it. Too bad I'll have to wait another two years to know for sure.
Because the summer run was so disappointing I've convinced myself that we can still get a "real" run at the end of the year... even though this runs contrary to history. I must admit it could just as easily go the opposite way, with the end of year resulting in a very nerve-wracking bottom-out. It's all a question of what's stronger: legacy macro economics or the 4-year cycle? Is the exponential curve still in play or is it simply a greedy and completely unsustainable target?
Comments are also being made about the DXY today. This is the value of the dollar vs a basket of other fiat currencies. A strong dollar is bad for markets as those markets tend to bleed out against a strong unit of account. This is especially true considering the economic environment that creates a strong dollar: rising interest rates and constant deflationary pressure across all sectors. After all, inflation isn't going to deflate itself, amirite?
Wasn't this post supposed to be about powerdowns?
Ah yes well my strategy for many months now has been to stay above a voting power of 225k. We can see that I've slightly surpassed this goal and currently have a 4k HP buffer. Perhaps now would be a good time to bump up my defense line to 230k.
Would it have been nice if I had just been a responsible adult and cashed out $30k during the bull market to pay for all my bear market living expenses? Sure would! Unfortunately I do not have a time machine so better luck next round. Then again I'm pretty scrappy and have been living well under the poverty line for my entire adult life. Perhaps I will finally learn my lesson and position myself with lower risk next time around the block.
The powerdown
I've unlocked 7k hive over the last 13 weeks, and my HP seems to have gone slightly up during that time. I consider it a privilege to have gambled so poorly on the markets yet still be in such a seemingly good position. I suppose constantly penny pinching has its advantages.
I'm sitting on $4k HBD and the plan has been to push that into Hive and BTC once Rektember is finally over and done with. Unfortunately now with backdoor access to Binance being cut off via Mandala there aren't a lot of places left with any kind of liquidity.
USA doesn't have access to the top five markets by volume. I haven't logged in to MEXC in over a year so that might be an option, but also the spread is half a percent... which means the gap between buyers and sellers is higher than the trading fee; a very bad sign. The 2% depth is abysmal as well, with a 2% slip only requiring a couple thousand dollars of sell pressure. WOOF!
Hell I might start using @brianoflondon's HIVE/LIGHTNING bridge just out of spite at this point. Assuming I can even figure out a way to turn Lightning BTC into actual BTC on Coinbase. In any case it's pretty clear that decentralized liquidity pools that can't be delisted or regulated away are moving up the list of priorities at alarmingly exponential speeds. Wen SPK SIP?
Conclusion
Being a distressed seller during the bear market is not fun! 100% of my income comes from Hive, and this has been the case since I moved to PA in September 2021... right before Hive peaked at $3+ during Thanksgiving. Ah those were the days!
Luckily I can still very comfortably pay my rent and food bills and still have a bit leftover given my current situation, and I'm pretty grateful for that... even if selling any amount of Hive at this juncture is cringe beyond measure. I have many times found ways to avoid such cringe (like selling other assets) but not always. Let it be known that even if my wallet looks like it contains a healthy amount I very much consider myself on financial life-support. Perhaps I always will; maybe that's just how I operate.
At the moment I'm still tentatively bullish into the end of the year, and I expect mid to late November to provide a solid signal as to where the market is going, as is often the case. I'm once again loading up my credit card with debt instead of selling crypto; longing the market by proxy as it were. I'll be forced to pay that down come November no matter which way the wind blows. Wish me luck.
Sometimes Im about to write my opinion on the market I just delete it, feels like I got more to loose than provide value, last market I did ok and on this bear market I did great just because I didnt invest a cent on anything for the past year and half, just work work work and put cash aside, not saying I knew what was coming but I got hit by the bear too, Im optimistic for next year but not bullish, who knows whats going to happen if regulated markets dump
Yeah that's why I try to talk about other subjects that aren't going to automatically expire given a certain length of time. It can be fun to sprinkle in predictions here and there but making a post full of speculation is definitely not my cup of tea.
Probably you will sit on much more HBD when the bear market will end. It can go on for many more months. Maybe even for years. By the way, I also power down. I put the liquid Hive into HBD savings. Then later probably I will withdraw it and sell it to financially support myself.
One thing that discourages me in powering down is that in that 13 weeks lies so many uncertainty. It can be positive /bullish or negative/ bearish or neutral/ consolidation. So for now I just need to attain a very strong Hive Power.
Congratulations on your power down.
As for the next big altcoin, I've never looked for it. Not once. I don't analyze them because, as you said, 99 percent of them are shitcoins. It's like looking for a needle in the haystack. I suspect the next bull run is going to shake the market and you'll half the top 10 drop out of the race. Checking the history of the ups and downs of the top 10 by market cap is rather eye-opening.
It is good to recognize that it is human nature to make mistakes.
Just like trying to predict the rise and fall of cryptocurrencies....
Shame sometimes lasts a lifetime, there are things I did as a kid and I'm still ashamed of it 😆😆😆😆
There is one really big thing… we are still really early on the crypto adoption. (this bull run fer shure!)
Anyway, in the future, the floor of bitcoin will be beyond what you can reasonably spend.
It will soon go up faster than you can spend it.
We are almost there.
If hive does any part of the bitcoin move this bull run, there will honestly be a lot of HIVE millionaires. And that is just the trickle down from the crypto market.
In the future, people will celebrate when a young person finally gets their first full satoshi.
We are all rich, just how long you want to wait?
First full satoshi eh
I simultaneously very much doubt it, but have also confirmed such things with my own analysis.
I guess that's just the power of exponents.
If BTC keeps doubling then by 2040 one sat is over $100.
Only other variable to consider at that point is the value of a dollar.
Binance Smart Chain has officially been added to THORChain. So, you can now bridge over to BSC via LEOFinance BHIVE / BHBD or you could use Splinterlands to bridge over to BSC (there is a lot of liquidity on SPS and DEC on Hive Engine).. you pay fees though... they get you coming and going. You can then trade for BNB or BUSD on Pancake swap and head over to THORChain to trade for native BTC. You can go backwards when the time is right and trade your BTC to BNB on the smart chain and head back into Hive that way. Liquidity is not horrible and you maintain custody the whole time (questionable on Hive.engine and Binance Smart Chain... half custody anyway). Anyway, the option to go from Hive to native BTC without using centralized exchanges is there now... although the path is still kind of rough.
Ah yes thanks for reminding me of all the things!
Been a while since I used ThorChain and I've never even considered HE an option till now.
Looks like I could trade Hive into swap.LTC at a 2%-3% hit... which obviously isn't good but def nice to have the option in case of emergency.
Powering down is just like stress to me. Imagine taking 13weeks to power down your money. It is actually discouraging and that is why I don't power down
I personally don't feel the sting of this thing you're talking about because I can 100% powerdown my entire stack and unlock 14k Hive in a single week (which is twice as much as the 7k over 13 weeks that I just completed). I wish that everyone had enough powered up so that a single week could pay for any kind of emergency that comes their way. Alas, this is not the case.
I appreciate you sharing the details of completing another powerdown cycle and providing insights into your approach to crypto investing. However, I couldn't help but feel the post came across as a bit aimless and self-indulgent in places.
The extensive recounting of past "cringe" calls on assets like LEO and CUB seems oddly proud for someone claiming huge mistakes. And the detailed reminiscing about old token projects and casino gambling doesn't cast the most flattering light. Sometimes less sharing is more.
The pseudo-profound musings like "time is the ultimate resource" also felt a bit pretentious without much substantive follow through. And the firm guarantee that researching new projects is pointless came across as lazy cynicism rather than wisdom. Dismissing potential opportunities out of hand is hardly sound strategy.
On the sections about Bitcoin and the dollar, the armchair analysis felt superficial for someone claiming expertise. Drawing sweeping conclusions from a single chart or metric is risky business. And implied predictions about future prices and cycles seem more ego-driven than evidence-based.
When you finally get to the powerdown itself, the details feel like an afterthought amidst the rambling. And the frequent references to your own precarious financial state, while admirably honest, lend an overall tone of insecurity rather than assurance.
In closing, I'd argue less could be more in future installments. The meandering walk down memory lane didn't necessarily enhance insights into the powerdown itself. Tighter focus on substantive issues, minus the bluster and ego, may better serve your readers. We're all still learning - framed appropriately, mistakes can enlighten rather than embarrass.
Thanks for sharing candidly. I hope these reflections come across as constructive feedback. Distilling your experience into more concise and considered takes could amplify the value for others. Authenticity is great, but judicious editing has its place too. Wishing you prosperity on the next leg of your crypto journey!
Okay well if I said "work smart; not hard" would that also come across as lazy?
There's little point in researching 100 tokens when every token is meticulously designed to trick you into thinking it's going to work. Much smarter to let the bear market act as a filter that allows legitimate projects to rise to the top by way of actual merit in the field. This is a strategy that actually let's people find good projects for a cheap price rather than simply hoping they get lucky during the casino phase. This is experience-based advice from someone who already tried it the other way in two separate bull markets. That's five years by the way.
I also did not realize that I needed to explain the value of 'time' as a resource. If I had said "oxygen is the ultimate resource" would you try to ask me for clarification on that as well and perhaps wonder if you don't actually need oxygen? I've explained time as a resource over many iterations in previous posts. Perhaps I should have linked one.
I've never claimed expertise and there is a running joke going (for years) about how I'm always wrong and should be mercilessly counter-traded. My analysis is always superficial.
Markets are random and totally unpredictable. Even the best most masterful analysis will only give a 10% edge in trading (meaning you lose 40% of the time). I don't need to be allocating more resources in this area.
Also you need to pick a lane. You can't say the post is ego-centric while simultaneously claiming it comes off as 'insecure'. My blustering insecurity is a thing of legend! What are you? A poet tinkering with oxymoron?
All in all great comment it's been a while since someone tried to keep me on my toes.
Good stuff.
In a very similar boat, although I have a regular income, it somehow doesn't manage to cover a sudden 100% tax and insurance increase (gotta love being at the bottom of the bracket), so I've had to dip into those funds a bit to keep things going.
I have been 100% bitcoin ever since.....I guess since my second bull run started and I realized I could do very well without gambling much, as long as I timed my entry and exit points a bit better and played the cycles.
Sadly I think the cycles are coming to an end, at least if an ETF gets approved, so it'll be harder to strategize, but I mean, number go up long term, so I guess HODL good assets whenever possible is still the second best strategy next to being a genius trader.
I am open to new tokens being worth investing in, I just don't have the energy to weed through and listen to "THIS ONE IS DIFFERENT" arguments.
Timing the market cycles is still gambling (just less degen), and I get the feeling they aren't going anywhere, especially due to ETF. Market cycles will always exist but the 4-year market cycle could disappear just because the halving is meaningless after emissions get to a certain level.
At the same time... the value of Bitcoin more than doubles every 4 years (a lot more), so it is possible that the halving event is actually becoming a stronger force on the market rather than weaker... which would actually be pretty odd. I still assume the opposite simply because while it might be worth more USD being sloshed around compared to previously the entire market is also exponentially bigger as well.
I meant the 4 year cycle, not cycle in general.
Either way I guess by 2028 WE will all be measuring things in bitcoin. Whether the normies are is another story but more and more people will
Reading through this post was like looking in the mirror in some ways, it was pretty interesting to see. I'm someone that lives with an insane amount of frugality, I don't spend a lot and these days pretty much all I make comes from Hive. Like you, I've got some funds saved up to buy more Hive in the event a certain target I have is reached.
The stock market is an absolute shitshow, not a thing really worth buying anymore. All volume seems completely fake, options-fuelled nonsense. Anything that isn't big tech seems to get absolutely crushed. Small caps are still fucked beyond belief and with no sign of it ending, so I have zero hope for the broader market sorting itself out in the near future. Holding cash and farming 5%~ is much safer for now. Most banks have that rate, and Coinbase has Coinbase Pro for something like 11% on USDC. The monthly fee should get paid quite easily by USDC holdings which seems quite attractive given the lack of fees you get with it.
I can't help but feel that with this market all you can do is cling to every penny you can get. And only let go of them if you absolutely have to. People often say that bear markets are for building, but in this market it only makes things harder.
By the way, I've noticed liquidity and volume on the exchanges for Hive is, well, quite bad to say the least. It's a concern I have going forward with Hive. Volume's gotta stay relatively decent to keep those easy on/off ramps. Getting a Binance delisting due to low volume would be pretty bad.
Yeah I've never messed with stocks it's really all about crypto for me.
My dad set up a mutual fund for me once... right before the housing crisis, lol.
Although I didn't end up cashing that out till much later in the green.
Knowing me that money probably just went to paying rent during the many years that I never worked.
Hive liquidity is a huge problem and I think we have a lot of incentive to fix it now.
Fingers crossed.
heh yep. While I don't do nearly as well on Hive as you do, the last Bull market was very good to me (as everyone) and I could have been in a much much much better place right now if I had sold some things (shitcoins) instead of being greedy and holding on. I did sell some, but then turned around and put the profit back into other shitcoins. Le sign.
Expensive mistakes. Hurm.
This next time, all profits are going into HBD or other stable coin.
230kHP, what the actual fuck XD.
I feel so identified with the thing about not wasting time with meme coins. I learnt my lesson to in the 20/21 years, what a nightmare.
Keep growing bro, you're a beast 💪
I agree that you do better financially by focusing on proven survivors that are also potential winners, that you know well. One reason I bought Hive instead of Bitcoin was I know how to earn money while holding Hive.
I was impressed when I got to the power down, and you said you powered down 13k Hive yet your HivePower went UP. It’s very bullish for Hive that you earned more than 13k Hive in 13 weeks.
It may seem odd to focus on that, but it actually is consistent with a post indicating only Hive and bitcoin are good investments, and then you clearly illustrate why it’s true.
Cub and Cakepop
I read your article warning me not to invest in CakePoP but I also sunk 1000$ in it late and I also read your post about Cub, I ignored both and lost about 20k.
I know you make fun of yourself for your market predictions, but you were spot on in both those token assessments.
By the way Cub is sub one cent now…
Sign me as
“Beaten and bruised”
by my very expensive crypto trader Education and some other shit here on Hive.