Bitcoin Rampage Continues
As I've been predicting for years now the cycle of the maximalist still seems to be alive and well. We see Bitcoin moving up in a strong recovery after all that FUD while many alts are stalled and struggling to do the same. This is a bad omen and unfortunately makes it a lot more risky to be holding the alt bag. More often than not when we see this kind of pattern anytime Bitcoin loses any ground whatsoever alts tend to bleed, but when it goes back up alts tend to trade flat. There's very little to gain and quite a bit to lose holding alts right now. Too bad so sad.
Of course the risk of holding something like Hive isn't going to deter me from holding it. We all know what this network is capable of and what it can accomplish going forward. All this price action we are seeing these days has nothing to do with fundamentals and everything to do with fear and the idea that regulators are actually at the helm of this ship. They are not. They are powerless in the longterm even if they constantly flex in the short term.
How high will dominance go?
I'm thinking we get to at least 50%. Maybe even 55% honestly. Many have made the claim that these numbers were no longer possible because of the stable-coin market and what-have-you, but that was back when dominance was sub 40%. The "this time is different" vibes are strong. Oh would you look at that. This time was not different.
What has to happen for a shift to happen?
Bitcoin will continue dominating until it starts to get crushed under the weight of it's own inability to scale. While measuring it by operation costs and sats/byte on-chain is a very basic and over-simplistic metric it still happens to be the best that we have. All I can say is that if it costs $50-$100 from one wallet to another and the cost doesn't go back down during the bear market then it's pretty safe to say that's the beginning of the end.
Many would point to all the increased traffic on chain as the beginning of the end of Bitcoin as well. BRC-20 tokens? Really? As if anyone needs such a thing. Many see this move as an attack on the network. It's not an attack; it's just dumb. Just being operation costs are heightened to day because of some fad BS doesn't mean that's going to be a thing forever.
What we actually need to be looking out for is real adoption and real use-cases that cut out the plebs from using Bitcoin. That means banks, governments, and corporations using Bitcoin everyday so much that normal people can no longer use it. Of course the maximalists will spew their nonsense about Lightning Network and whatever else, but we all know that LN Bitcoin and actual Bitcoin are two different things. There are a dozen reasons why that situation isn't going to work out like the proponents seem to think it will.
2021 was the rise of the EVM chain.
This is the natural progression of scaling issues in web3. Fees get too high and then devs scramble to catch all the overflow. Sure, networks like Polygon and BSC are inherently more centralized than ETH (and ETH is arguably centralized already), but people don't care. People care about convenience. They don't care about decentralization until they learn the hard lesson and lose everything they put on a centralized entity like exchanges or dev teams or whatever else.
What belongs on-chain?
Does this post belong on chain? I seem to think it does because that's exactly where it's going when I'm done, but maybe one day that will stop being the case. It's all about priorities and resources. When resources are abundant, priorities are less important and we don't have to think about the order of operations we want to be doing things in. Only when we run out of air and are gasping for breath do we realize that rationing may be necessary going forward.
When you talked about normal people can no longer use it because of those bigger companies, will it be possible? I'm not an expert or well-knowledgeable about crypto things but I've seen numerous people own bitcoin already. Maybe Bitcoin will be centralized in the near future?
The dream:
We all know what this network is capable of and what it can accomplish going forward.
The reality:
https://dapp.review/explore/hive?category=all
UTILITY = USERBASE
SPLINTERLANDS to date is the only real development that puts Hive to use.
I don't think your vision of "RCs will cost millions of dollars due to chain activity overflowing" and making you uber rich is happening anytime soon.
The only activity that stays up on numbers is the amount of HBD that the so called "HIVE BUILDERS" continue to extract for themselves.
It's a small club.
And you're not in it.
Or me.
But then, I don't care for money. I just thought that after 3 YEARS hive would have better framework to attract users to.
The thing is stale man.
I stacked some more seats a few weeks ago, but not enough of course.
FWIW, the RHODL ratio suggests that the deep accumulation phase ended late winter or early spring and the bull is in its early phases. YMMV.
No. BlackRock is moving into BTC. They have more money than God, and are pushing up the price, at least for now. The US is introducing FedNow next month. What will BlackRock, who very much intends to benefit from CBDCs, do with BTC then?
Whatever they want. The larger stake they hold, the more control they will have. I suspect they have made large investments in miners, which is where the real control of BTC price is. If they want BTC to be seen as a safe haven from CBDCs, they'll keep that price moving up, and encourage folks to jump in, and ya'll will gleefully count your profits as number goes up.
And when BlackRock wants to end BTC and turn you all out into the mean streets of the FedNow they will also control, they will be able to do that with utter facility. Remember: you only profit when you sell. Don't wait too long to lock in gains by selling, is my (worthless) advice. In fact, I really hope I'm wrong, for your sake and that of everyone that wants to be free from legacy financial profiteers enough to have a bag.
But I don't see how I can be. Overall I remain confident that investing in goodwill is a strategy BlackRock cannot game, and where I hold my value. The first rule of investing is not to lose your capital. However, we must be resigned to the fact that everyone loses 100% of their capital the day they die, if not sooner. I have lost 100% of my capital more than once, and I know several ways I cannot prevent my capital from being utterly drained.
Goodwill, however, I will take to the grave with me. An interesting fact about goodwill is that the more you give it away, the more you get.
Best of luck in the exciting days ahead.
Hmm, alot of insight @valued-customer
I guess one major thing grayscale have over Blackrock and any other financial institution that will apply for bitcoin ETF is that they currently own over 600000 bitcoin, which is major, If Blackrock wants to compete they will have to either start buying bitcoin which will most likely set the bitcoin price well over $100k or they will have to buy GBTC from grayscale both of which will be a huge win win for GBTC and bitcoin holders. Cause I'm seeing it happening.
Could be. As I pointed out, I have learned several ways all my capital can disappear, by having them happen to me. Something else I learned from those events was that fraud happens, and there is more than one way to skin a cat, because I never got skinned the same way twice. Is grayscale a stock corporation? BlackRock owns a majority interest, together with StateStreet and Vanguard, in ~90% of stock corporations in the world. Let's hope they're not vulnerable to being bribed, blackmailed, or bamboozled, either.
You only profit when you sell. Sell high, my friend!
Ohh, yeah that's true anyway. I guess selling than buying will be the best option right now and now to avoid story that touches the heart.
Thanks so much @valued-customer, your words has really been insightful.
Don't take my advice! I'll lead you astray. I dunno how long BlackRock will keep pumping the price of BTC. You have to judge that yourself.
Good luck!
I've already died countless times
let the game begin
I like your optimism!
I guess that, having lost everything I owned more than once, I am well aware things could be very much worse than they are. Maybe this time I'll get to squander my fortune properly, rather than being stripped of it by nefarious means.
Thanks!
And you just keep on beaming the happy sunshine!
It's a beautiful day!
https://leofinance.io/threads/josedam/re-leothreads-2v3b9tdzc
The rewards earned on this comment will go directly to the people ( josedam ) sharing the post on LeoThreads,LikeTu,dBuzz.
Maybe we must cross our hands and wait a little.... I mean little patience can change something. It would definitely follow suit if the mother coin is going.
Two opposing forces are currently influencing the crypto market. On one hand, there is a favorable development for Bitcoin, specifically the BlackRock spot ETF application. On the other hand, the market faces regulatory challenges that pose risks to the overall crypto market. While it is true that convenience often takes precedence over decentralization, it is important to note that the corporate market, which is gravitating towards Bitcoin, is creating a layer between users and the Bitcoin network to mitigate inconveniences. As a result, I agree that Bitcoin is likely to strengthen its dominance. However, I have concerns about the actions of major players once they enter the Bitcoin market. It is possible that they may attempt to modify the protocol to better suit their needs. Only time will reveal their true intentions. Thank you for providing an insightful article.
Lets see how high bitcoin dominance will go from here.
I was a non-believer in the year of the maximalist. Asking for forgiveness ser... I still expect my alts to outperform BTC nevertheless :)).
#MeToo
I can't wait for the system to crash.
When things look bad for altcoins, things start to look good for stablecoins. We are seeing this now. People HODL stablecoin waiting for BTC to dip or alt coins to bottom out.
Subiendo nuestra moneda madre a 30K, hasta el infinito y más allá.
Subiendo nuestra moneda madre a 30K, hasta el infinito y más allá.