Auf Polymarket wetten Anleger auf zukünftige Bitcoin-Kurse/ On Polymarket, investors bet on future Bitcoin prices

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Wie hoch steigt Bitcoin 2025?

Auf Polymarket wettet eine Mehrheit der Menschen, dass BTC in diesem Jahr noch die 70.000 US-Dollar (USD) anläuft.

Zum Zeitpunkt des Schreibens notiert BTC bei 84.000 USD. Das heißt, 70 Prozent der Menschen wetten auf einen Abverkauf von weiteren 16 Prozent.

Doch auch auf steigende Kurse werden bei Polymarket Wetten abgeschlossen. 7 Prozent rechnen noch in diesem Jahr mit 150.000 US-Dollar.

Immerhin 4 Prozent wagen die Mondprognose von einer Million US-Dollar pro BTC.

https://www.btc-echo.de/schlagzeilen/steigt-bitcoin-auf-1-million-usd-noch-in-2025-203790/

Wer hält dagegen?

Ich Wette: Bitcoin erreicht bis Weihnachten die 200.000$ Marke.

Ich Wette 100 mal die Fairste Rente der Welt. Wer traut sich dagegen zu wetten???

Ps. Um die Fairste Rente der Welt zu erhalten musst du unbedingt einen Account auf Hive besitzen. Solltest du gewinnen sende ich an @steembasicincome 100 Hive. Daraufhin erhälst du täglich auf deine Blogbeiträge wertvolle Votes von einen der 10 SBI Bots und verdienst zusätzlich Hive Coins.

Vielleicht wirst dann du der wahre Prophet?

English

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How ​​high will Bitcoin rise in 2025?

A majority of people on Polymarket are betting that BTC will reach $70,000 this year.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $84,000. This means 70 percent of people are betting on a further 16 percent sell-off.

But people are also betting on rising prices on Polymarket. 7 percent expect $150,000 this year.

At least 4 percent are daring to make the lunar prediction of one million US dollars per BTC.

https://www.btc-echo.de/schlagzeilen/steigt-bitcoin-auf-1-million-usd-noch-in-2025-203790/

Who disagrees?

I bet: Bitcoin will reach the $200,000 mark by Christmas.

I bet 100 times the world's fairest pension. Who dares to bet against that???

P.S. To receive the world's fairest pension, you absolutely must have a Hive account. If you win, I'll send 100 Hive coins to @steembasicincome. You'll then receive valuable daily votes on your blog posts from one of the 10 SBI bots and also earn Hive coins.

Maybe then you'll become the true prophet?

Posted Using INLEO

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32 comments
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Gerade noch gelesen, und bin dennoch der erste, ich halte dagegen!!

BTC erreicht bis Weihnachten NICHT die 200000 $ Dollar Marke!

Lg aus der Wachau mit nem !BEER chen 🤠

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Na dann die Wette gilt. 😉

Ich bin gespannt ob du der wahre Prophet bist 😇

Bist du auf Urlaubsreisen?

!WITZ

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Ja, zur Zeit in der schönen Wachau...

lg !invest_vote 🤠

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Wachau ist schön. War dort vor Jahren im Juli, als die Aprikosen reif waren, lecker.

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Im Juli ists auch besser, weil wärmer und den Marillen (Aprikosen) ....
Zur Zeit hat es um die Null Grad bis 5 Grad, aber am WE soll es ja wieder 15 geben ... :)

lg !invest_vote 🤠

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I happen to know what the actual terminal price and date for Bitcoin have been calculated to be ... I wonder if we are looking at the same data. But, I am neither a prophet, nor a prophet's daughter, nor do I bet, and someone else may need that pension if they can get it. I say "if" because the "spread" between your prediction and the calculation is not that big on either time or date.

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I've already made that bet with @reiseamateur.

But I'm still very interested in your data and how it was calculated. 😉

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(Edited)

I noticed that bet ... he has a chance for that pension, though a slim one.

  1. You have said Christmas -- Weihnachten -- and that gives you three days to work with in Germany if memory serves, but YouTuber No BS Crypto in 2023 counted how many days there have been between the last two halvings and Bitcoin's top. There are 548 days exactly, with 550 days showing up in an earlier cycle but, suffice it to say: 365 days plus 183-185 days, or, 18 months. Because the halving was predicted to be April 16, 2024 then, No BS counted out the run as lasting until October 30, 2025. Because the halving did not actually occur until April 20, the end date would shift too. So, the market top would occur before Christmas: more like November 2, Mid-Autumn Day. This would require Bitcoin, from here, to more than double -- to rise about 150 percent in eight months. Not beyond the pale of possibility, because ...

  2. The terminal price of Bitcoin has been predicted to be approximately $190K. YouTuber Benjamin Cowen broke this down with math I can't recite from memory, but like with No BS Crypto, one can follow the math while he explains it and back track it. The key part he said, though, is that cycle trends show that Bitcoin may begin to underperform the terminal price, because the steps that get one there are all getting less steep because of the law of diminishing returns manifesting itself in successive cycles, and thus Bitcoin is likely to get just to or just miss below.

So: because I am conservative in outlook, I am inclined to read all that as Bitcoin reaching around $180K-190K by mid-autumn. 10 percent of $200K is $20K; subtract the smaller from the greater and you would see why I said the spread on your bet is about 10 percent, because Bitcoin could wander between $180K-200K for quite sometime if is hits around 190K in November -- maybe even to Christmas, given the stupidly long consolidation periods we have seen this cycle. So: you and @reiseamateur may indeed have to ride it all the way out to the morning after Christmas to see if he gets that pension.

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So I didn't bet with reiseamateur that Bitcoin would reach 200K exactly at Christmas, but by Christmas.

This is of course a personal analysis based on my personal experience.

in 2017, i visited new york for a fortnight and in those two weeks bitcoin reached its cycle high...

it was similar in 2021 when bitcoin also reached its cycle high just before christmas...

therefore i conclude that something similar will happen in 2025. I estimate that in mid-December bitcoin will again experience its last ATH at the end of the cycle...

Whether it will actually reach 200k is pure speculation

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

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Well, by Christmas gives you until that first day ... and I agree with you on the four-year cycle bit. It is easily observable and the cycle math backs it up, more or less, except that the cycle tops are drifting backwards a little in time.

I generally try not to speculate, because to hear some folks tell it, Bitcoin speculation would have had us at $250K in the last cycle. I consider the market caps, and in the last cycle, I was all, "NO ... Bitcoin alone would have to get from here to here, and there isn't that much money in the whole crypto market multiplied by X and no inflow even close to that amount!" I learned in stocks, charts of which I have been reading off and on for 20 years, and from Enron before that: fundamental and technical investing are both very important. The fundamentals of crypto, and why it should do well, are very good. The medium-term technicals, through the majority of 2025, should agree.

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Da ist der Optimismus derzeit etwas zurück gegangen, ich war ja so zwischen den 17 und 27% angesiedelt, sollte er vorher wirklich nochmal unter die 70k gehen, stört mich das auch nicht.
!BEER

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Wir werden sehen müssen welche Propheten recht haben. Auch bei 70K bleibe ich mit Bitcoin noch im Plus.

Dieses Jahr habe ich leider eh kein Geld um in Kryptowährungen zu investieren...

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Ich leider auch nicht,
soviele Urlaube stehn an und dann ist da noch das Big Hive Meetup in Graz ...

lg !invest_vote 🤠

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Ich wäre gerne dabei gewesen! Aber ich hab dieses Jahre eine neue Verpflichtung zugelegt 🤯

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Dieses Jahr habe ich leider eh kein Geld um in Kryptowährungen zu investieren...

Bei mir ist auch das meiste schon drinnen, aber bei Rücksetzern kaufe ich immer noch kleine Mengen dazu.

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Die Wette ist etwas ungenau formuliert. Wer gewinnt, wenn BTC im November die 200k knackt, aber an Weihnachten dann wieder bei 180k notiert?

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Also ich Gewinne wenn der bitcoin bis Weihnachten die 200k knackt ,@reiseamateur gewinnt wenn bitcoin an Weihnachten oder danach oder garnicht die 200k knackt.

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