Four Long Years

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(Edited)

Being in crypto, we are used to the four-year cycle and lots happening in a four year period. Maybe not lately, when people may have gotten anxious to see something (positive) happening for a while now. And it probably will.

We have then seen AI, with a rhythm of development many (I'd say most) people can't follow. It's simply mind-blowing what's going on in that field.

Who thought governments are too slow (and they are), are nowadays exposed to a new way of making politics, ignoring all the rules, regulations, customs, and even treaties. Is that a good thing? Time will tell, as nothing is what it seems, and everything is potentially subject to change. What I know is we will have four long years, after which, we may or may not recognize the world we live in. And not because of the AI and robots, although they will play their big part, for sure, in other ways.


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At the end of this, some may rejoice, others may cry, but no one will be bored. What action movie or entertainment? We won't need those, they are guaranteed... Almost every day. Let's see... 365x4 = 1460 days (more or less) of "entertainment". But after a while it gets tiring... It's only been a month and I've got tired of this. And it's only the beginning...

Plus, of course, given how things evolve, they can turn into real positive things on some aspects or for some, and into real tragedies for others and on other aspects. But who cares about the tragedies, as long as pluses can be counted on the targets followed, right?

We often contemplate what will the future of crypto or AI look like. It's unlikely we can influence either of them directly, even if we are small contributors. But in real life, for countries that are unfortunate enough to be potential bargaining chips when great powers may renegotiate their spheres of influence, geopolitics has a bigger impact.

Probably the further away one is from such a situation, the more relaxed they can be, and think about something like... what will the benefits for crypto be, which I admit, I did at first too...

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11 comments
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I want my space back, but they won't allow. They are good at posturing, but when it comes to public service, they fall short, not to mention the widespread corruption that afflicts bureaucratic agencies.

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Sorry to hear about that. Corruption is a scourge in most societies and often fighting it is only a slogan.

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I don't know what the future will be for crypto or Ai, geopolitics are getting not very good, internal tensions in countries are ramping with industrial crysis, if the technological states collapses everything will stop

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geopolitics are getting not very good, internal tensions in countries are ramping with industrial crysis, if the technological states collapses everything will stop

They certainly don't look very good. We may have major shifts that would completely change the world as it is right now, and it is from what I see what is desired from the highest levels. And in those shifts there will be casualties (and I don't think they will be counted in millions of people, but rather in number of countries, when everything settles and historians look back).

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Anything can happen in the future, but I am skeptical about the 4 year cycle because of the ETFs. I have a feeling that things might not stay the same forever.

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I am skeptical about the 4 year cycle because of the ETFs

Normally, I don't think the 4-year cycle will be broken. But after I had the look at the BTC-D cycle the day before, and knowing the pro-crypto administration in Washington which just started, I have to wonder: will we just skip the next bear market? I don't give a high probability to that, but it is a very small chance it is what is desired (gold had 8 years of growth after their first ETFs have been approved too, so that would be another coincidence).

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I think a lot of crypto buddies including us are hungry for something exciting and somehow these hunger leads to impatience. We weren't as sentimentally attached in 2021 as we currently are, so it makes sense why we're here at the moment

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Hmm, I'm not much worried about crypto at this point. It will do what it will do, probably quite well. But there are other things in the world that could mess some of us up really well. Many won't see it coming until after the fact, if even then. Probably being in Africa is a good place to be nowadays, from this point of view.

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Probably being in Africa is a good place to be nowadays, from this point of view.

Perhaps some selected countries in Africa, certainly not places like Nigeria, Sudan or Mozambique.

I think we've not seen the end of events like COVID. Like you, sometimes I'm concerned too.

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Yeah, it surely varies in Africa too, but somehow from the global interests point of view, focus and games are elsewhere. Often this is a good thing, but when things shift, they never go down easily, and there is potential for conflict and major disruptions in people's lives.

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I'm inclined to think that the bigger the crypto market grows in terms of adoption and market cap, the shallower these cycles are going to get... we're now a little over $3 trillion... it's going to take a lot more fiat inflow to move the market even just 100% than it did in 2017, or even 2021...

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