Why The Altcoin Market is "So Broken"...
America is trying by all means to pump our bags, constantly bragging about opening corridors never seen before for this industry and endlessly talking it up. Yet, CT is in the trenches... Why would that happen, you might ask...
Well, it's pretty straightforward. For most of the bull market (and I called it right back in early 2023 when I said we’d entered a new bull market), Bitcoin has hogged the spotlight from investors.
Spot ETFs got approved in the US back in late 2023, and since then, heavyweights like BlackRock have amassed close to 800,000 BTC under their management. They might even hit a million during the parabolic phase of this bull market.
I nailed calling the start of the bull market, but damn, I fucked up by not buying BTC back then and instead over-diversifying into altcoins. Don’t get me wrong, I made some cash over the past couple of years, but nowhere near what I could’ve made.
Most altcoin buyers are in the same boat as me. When it comes to Bitcoin, it seems the price is driven either by ETF providers hoarding massive amounts of BTC or market makers flushing out degenerate traders.
Retail is almost completely out of Bitcoin, if you ask me. The institutional players pumping Bitcoin for years now aren’t giving a shit about our altcoins.
We’ve had a few alts here and there doing great, riding waves of hype, but we can’t say we’ve had a proper altcoin season this bull market like we saw in past cycles. Not all cards are on the table yet, and we could still see alts run high if BTC hits something like $200,000, but...
Man, even if that happens, Bitcoin will still look like the safer bet, and any altcoin rally will likely be short-lived. BTC.D is sitting at 62% now but has been hovering well below that for a while, looking pretty weak.
We won’t see a proper altcoin season until ETH breaks out of the descending broadening wedge it’s been stuck in for a year and a half. It could happen, it probably will, but even if it does, I wouldn’t expect altcoins to pull off anything like we saw in 2017 or 2021.
There are just too many altcoins now, and the main stage isn’t big enough to include all of them for the final dance. I’d still bet on ETH, and I believe we haven’t seen BTC’s top for this cycle, but I don’t think every shitcoin will perform like in past cycles. Bitcoin has matured enough to render most altcoins pointless.
We’ve got a different breed of investors in crypto now, and that’s why the altcoin market is “so broken”... Have a great day and catch y’all next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
At some point, we will have to stop chasing pumps and seek growth that are aligned with meaningful developments.
Won't happen anytime soon.
I have a feeling that's what they want us to believe: that there won't be an alt season or it won't be like before, and so on. And when enough (as in most) people give up, then we'll see a quick and spectacular alt season. Just a feeling, though...
Might be true
YOu are right .... that is why alts have not maid something big yet , but when they make , it fill be fast up and fast down .... so be ready when it happens .
I'm ready
I fear the Alt market is still too dominated by "Lambo Bros" looking for the next thing to go 10x in three days... but they all have nervous trigger fingers and pull the plug as soon as alts are up 10%. IF they are ever substantially flushed out of the markets — reducing volatility — I would expect Alts with viable fundamentals to enjoy a gradual rise.
Not gonna happen anytime soon, I fear.
Hard to predict anything anymore...