Splinterlands Conclave Arcana pre-sale analysis

Conclave Arcana Presale is complete. While we didn't sell out of all the available pre-sale packs 2,410,120,000 which at the time of writing is worth almost $2.4 million dollars is a VERY respectable result!

Here is what was available in terms of packs in DEC:

Standard Packs: 2,000,000,000 DEC
Alchemy packs: 1,200,000,000 DEC
Legendary packs: 1,200,000,000 DEC

So the total was 4,400,000,000 DEC or around $4.4 million dollars worth of pack. We fell short about $2 million dollars worth of pre-sale sales. That is unfortunate that the team will not get the full revenue from the presale, however $2,4 million is still a very good result.

I logged in three hours before the end of the presale and the total of pre-sale pack sales stood at around 1.7 million. In the last three hours there were around $700,000 spent on presale packs! Out of these $700k about $200,000 was spent in the last nine minutes. Azircon posted this image that shows leaderboard positions and amount of DEC spent nine minutes prior to the end of the sale:

The final tally stands at $2,410,120,which means $202,628 were spent in the last nine minutes. This is most likely people trying to get positions for maximum rewards in terms of titles, the right to design summoners and the type of cards you get.

If we look at the final leaderboard we can definitely see the movement in the top 10:

Hanv appeared in the third position while he was not in the top eight nine minutes prior to the pre-sale end. JeffOpensCards also appeared in the fifth spot while he wasn't in the top eight nine minutes before the end of the sale. The same thing was probably happening at all levels of prize cut-offs.

If we look at the top 10 pre-sale pack buyers we see that the top ten buyers spent $660,308 or 27.4% of all the money spent on packs in the Conclave Arcana Presale. The next ten buyers spent 13.17% of the money spent in the pre-sale. This means that over 40% of the money spent in the presale was spent by only 20 accounts. We should exclude YGG Pool out of those which was around 2% and while account in the twenty first position was at 1.13% it means that top 20 accounts excluding a pool account spent around 39% of the funds. That is a big number! Splinterlands pre-sale was definitely top heavy!

This is great that we have such big spenders to support Splinterlands as a game. It really helps during the bear markets. And Splinterlands already survived two big bear markets. Top Lorkus who is at the 20th spot spent almost $28,000, top fifty is almost at nine thousand dollars which is still a big investment:

At the same time we need more players for the game to be healthy. If we had more players buying during presale to the point where top 20 spent the same amount and accounted for only ten percent instead of forty percent then we would have had a pre-sale sell out.

The last ten in top 300 presale buyers spent around $1,200 which is still a significant investment into a game:

More players also means better match ups in the ranked play so that players are playing an opponent in one hundred points of ranking instead of getting four hundred to sometimes a thousand ranking points higher than your ranking that I see right now. Yes we have liquidity bots now even at Modern Diamond / Champion levels, but those are often harder to beat than human players.

So it all points to the need to bring in more new players. We might not need a lot of new players, but five to ten thousand new players would have been really nice.

Another piece of good news is that SPS stayed above the one cent level, yes there was a steep drop as the presale ended from around 1.33 cents to 1.17 cent level but at that point it stabilized and even seems to be trending slightly higher:

In general, I would say that Conclave Arcana pre-sale was semi-successful. Now the question is how will the general sale go? Do you have any predictions?

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