I'll buy back in later.
It’s been almost a year as active blogger on Hive now, and I’ve come across a few speculators that sell all their Hive immediately, and say that they’re going to buy it back later, when it drops to whatever, like 5 cents. It felt kind of wrong to me reading that, but I couldn’t put the finger on it.
My mentality is that of a holder. I don’t have experience in crypto, only in stocks, and in general I hold positions for a long time after finishing my research on them and buying in. I never got into trading, so this is not about the mechanics and trends and all that, but more about an ethical dilemma and an approach that we all know from childhood:
What if everyone did the same as you?
As to most figures of speech that are overused and become platitudes, there is more to this then just the superficial “Don’t follow the herd” that our parents use to keep us from using the “But XYZ is allowed to!” argument. Because if you really think it to the end, and really answer the question, there is a lot more to it.
There are many outcomes to that questions, scenarios that can indicate whether an act is a good idea – or not. If everyone jumped off a cliff (hanging over a black hole, so you don’t come with that “but the bodies will start forming a hill that will de-cliff the cliff” logic), humanity would cease to exist. Depending on the perspective, that’s a disastrous outcome. That’s how our parents used it.
There's the other side that I encountered studying environmental sciences and the impact of mass production of meat on the planet. What if the whole world went vegetarian or 1-per-week meat eaters? The impact on almost everything would be extremely positive. Less destruction of rain forest and other parts of the environment, less nitrate in drinking water, CH4/CO2 emissions, less spending on the healthcare system, less hunger in the world (if the distribution is solved), less nutrient migration, … The list is long.
Not everybody is going to do it, I know. But this exercise can help categorizing acts as “good” and “bad”. If the outcome is disastrous, it’s a bad act. If it’s beneficial, it’s a good one.
Since Hive represents different things for different people, the answers vary a lot here. For me, it’s the community, the writing, the fun. I do like playing with those numbers, statistics and stuff, but it’s not a monetary issue for me. Hence, my “what if everyone did it?” is more likely to use the perspective of a community.
What if everyone sold their Hive immediately, powering down with the prospect of buying in when it’s lower?
That’s the end of the Hive token. It would never recover, as there would be no buying pressure at all. Nobody would want to buy Hive as it would be in constant free fall and hence worthless. As a community, that kind of behavior is damaging, as it seeks personal gain over the well being of the ecosystem. From an egoistical standpoint, it might be a very smart move to do so (if it plays out), but even if it works out, not everybody will have won, but many will have lost.
What if everyone held their Hive indefinitely?
The price would skyrocket. Remember that this is a theoretical game, so everyone means every single Hive stays in the accounts. There would be no selling pressure, and the bids would go up, making everyone wanting to buy in – which they couldn’t as nobody was selling, they could only join and create high quality content to earn their own Hive, which then they wouldn’t sell, either. Everyone in the community wins, and the community as whole wins.
But that's just me...
Not just, I know many holding on to their Hive, even buying more. Sometimes I hope that the "I'll buy back in later" will never get the chance. That they will miss the boat. As a punishment for their greed - or what I perceive as such. But that's not for me to judge. This whole exercise did help me with one thing, though. As my stake is growing, so does my vote value. And now I know who I won't support with it.
What are your thoughts about this topic? Please feel free to engage in any original way, including dropping links to your posts on similar topics. I'm happy to read (and curate) any quality content that is not created by LLM/AI, as well as read your own experience and point of view, I love to learn!
I don't think HIVE is being sold by a few speculators. Hive is being sold by many good writers with a KE greater than 1.
For example, a speculator like me (with a KE of 0.18) is transferring HIVE (bought at a higher price) to Solana (because it has good growth potential).
Of course, there are many reasons to sell, and I don't think that it's speculation in most cases - most won't buy back in, ever. This post is focused on the few that actually do speculate that way. And about a theoretical tool to judge situations and behavior.
I know that you're waiting for the price to drop, so you can buy more, too (if you're plan hasn't changed), but you're not selling every bit of hive you own now to buy back in later. Or at least from what I know :-D
I don't think my KE will go above 1. There are good people here, I won't sell their upvotes :)
But seriously, dalz recently posted where he shows the huge amount of HIVE on exchanges. There are 150 million HIVE on the Korean exchange alone. We need to think carefully about whether we have enough buyers to buy up tens of millions of HIVE.
Don’t you know the greedy shall inherit the earth? I was educated in a Catholic school, where we were taught to keep the consequences of our actions for others foremost in our minds. I’m not sure people think that way anymore. Now it seems to be all about personal gratification, and bugger the consequences.
Yes, I was raised with that consideration, too, and it unfortunately is one of my most important values. Unfortunately, because I see what you see, and it's hard not to be bothered by the egoistical behavior of so many. It's normal now, nobody even notices. Even people I think of as "good" are firstly focused on themselves.
Wasn't there a band that took that as a band name? Me first and the gimme gimme's or something like that...
It's the constant cry here: hold, buy, don't sell. Us diehards that love the platform and see it's worth hold, and sell if we need the money (although probably not now, as it's not worth much). But there's many who are just in it for financial gain, and don't see the point of it otherwise. More fool them. I do hope we aren't in freefall. I am sure there's many of us who will stay as long as we can. I can't imagine Hive not being in my life. Too many cool and interesting people.
Yeah I noticed the focus on Hive price on some blogs. Not the ones I read, though, I rather read about real thoughts. It was a good reminder of how the "What if everyone" works, and the conclusions that one can draw from that.
When there's free money to be made, it doesn't attract the best in people, nor the best people. Taraz just wrote about that yesterday, too, though a different angle.
I hope that hive price maintains itself at some level, so the servers still run. That's my only concern about the hive price, the witnesses have to be able to work. I really don't want to go back to Facebook...
Timing the market is very hard, it many cases, it just doesn't pan out as expected, either one sells too late and isn't able to buy back at expected price because price didn't drop that low, which ends up becoming a lose-lose scenario. I'm more comfortable with staying in the market, taking a bit of a long term view, too much noise in the short term, especially as of late.
That's my market approach, too - a lot more relaxed :-D I gamble with options from time to time, as a little hedge, but it's never more than 0.01% of my portfolio - just some fun, nothing serious. If I get lucky, great, if not, doesn't matter too much.
Yes, nice to have some fun with the markets, it's not that deep :)
I do also try out risky trades with very little size of my overall portfolio, and I tend to see it more as a way to have a pulse of the market or sharpen my trading skills even though I seldom trade seriously even as a hobby :D
A lot of people come here with the wrong mentality... to earn... as if this is some place they extract a bit of money every week. To them Hive is just free money coming from nowhere and that really pisses me off.
I don't mind the earning so much, but the amounts. How easy it is. Whenever something is free, the scavengers come. And it is one of the things that attract everyone to Hive, not only to express, but to earn directly - and in some regions, that's a lot of money. The keyword is the and. The balance. Without the earning, Hive would be just another platform (at least on the content creation part), and then it gets hard to compete with other spaces that already exist and are huge. But with too much weight on the earning, as it is now, it attracts too many that come just for that. "It is crazy easy to earn a small amount of money at hive" is what AZ once wrote me, and he's right.
I sometimes wonder about the definition of What is Hive? What is the purpose? A blockchain where everyone can develop and build on? A mechanism for people to earn money in economically beaten down countries, as a social endeavor? A social media platform?
What is the endgame? What is the Hive Utopia?
I'm pretty sure there are many answers to that, depending on who is asked. I just enjoy the awesome content for now, being already quite "settled in" and having my favs that I read and watch frequently.