Plans, plans, plans…

It’s good to make them—it’s even better to actually act on them.

I’m no stranger to the trading game. I was in the stock market long before I stumbled across Hive and crypto. I know the golden rule: buy low, sell high. And I know how hard it is to actually follow that. When euphoria is in the air and it feels like prices will keep going up forever, selling seems stupid—like you’re leaving money on the table. It becomes the hardest thing in the world to do.

I know Warren Buffett’s twist on this classic advice, intended to make it a little easier to follow (because even he—the most successful investor of all time—admits it’s hard): be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. In other words, when everyone starts saying it’s going to $200k or a million (sound familiar?), that’s when you should start thinking about selling. And when people are depressed from all the red they’re seeing, that’s when you should start thinking about buying.

I know this stuff. I’ve acted on it. But with Hive…

I can forgive myself for missing the 2017 pump up to $14 or whatever crazy number it was. I had only just joined and hadn’t actually invested anything. The best I could do was sell what little my posts earned (and believe me, I did). Sure, I can wish I had joined a little earlier and put real money in, but… might as well wish I’d bought Bitcoin back when it was pennies. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.[1]

But the 2021 pump up to $3?

Did I power down and take profits—or even just move everything into HBD to wait out the pump? Nope. I sat there like a mindless golem,[2] watching it go up, smiling all the while… then watched it go back down again, doing absolutely nothing besides mentally willing it to rise.

Hive being a social network in addition to a blockchain adds a weird layer of pressure not to power down. Many of us do eventually get over it, but the pressure is real. That’s what got to me last time, I think.

In addition to the usual trader’s mindset (or speculator, to borrow Benjamin Graham’s word) telling you to hold because it might go higher, Hive adds this social guilt. If you power down, your votes aren’t worth as much, your KE ratio goes the wrong way, and people start to call you an extractor. It can look like you’re abandoning the project or turning your back on your friends here. You see this attitude every time someone posts a “Why I’m Powering Down” explainer post—trying to assure followers they’re not going anywhere, often including a plan to power back up in the future.

Last time, I didn’t have a plan. I let both those forces—fear and guilt—get to me. I know I’m not alone. I’ve talked to plenty of other Hive users who missed out on the last pump for the same reasons.

So this time, I’m making a plan. It may not be fully automated (though that would be best), but writing it down like this helps. Because when the next pump comes, I will act.

My plan this time?

• If HIVE pumps close to $1, I do a full power down.
• Even at only $1, I’ll start moving some of my HP to HBD.
• At that level, it’s not about taking profit—it’s about optionality. My average buy-in price is well below $1 thanks to last and this year’s 20¢ HIVE, but there’s no rush to cash out. Some into HBD, most liquid to see which way the wind blows.

If we break $1 and keep rising, I’ll DCA more of the liquid HIVE into HBD. Again, mostly just sitting there, waiting.

If we hit $2? That’s my trigger to finally take a little profit and move some off-chain.

Yeah, if we keep going higher, I will miss out on some of that by selling early, but hey—better some profit than none like last time. I will still keep a little liquid just in case that moonshot comes.

And if we get near that $1 mark but the bears come out? Well, I’ll convert what I can to HBD before it falls too much.

And to keep the plan going, when we inevitably fall back below $1, I will trade that HBD back to HIVE starting around the 50 or 40 cent level and power my account back up.

1. Because I do like this place and want to support it.
2. Because there is always the next pump to plan for.

😃

After all, percentage-wise, HIVE pumps are far more lucrative than BTC pumps. As long as Hive doesn’t die—and I don’t think it will—we’re sitting on a rare opportunity. Just gotta be smart enough to act next time.

❦

David is an American teacher and translator lost in Japan, trying to capture the beauty of this country one photo at a time and searching for the perfect haiku. He blogs here and at laspina.org. Write him on Mastodon. 【Support @dbooster with Hive SBI】