The Evolution of Oil Prices in the Coming Days

The oil market begins 2026 with marked volatility, influenced by geopolitical factors and a global oversupply. As of January 5, 2026, the price of WTI crude is around $57-58 per barrel, while Brent is hovering around $61, following a 1-1.5% increase in the recent session. This slight recovery comes amid the uncertainty generated by the US intervention in Venezuela, where the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and Washington's temporary control over the country have fueled speculation about oil flows. However, experts agree that the short-term impact will be minimal, as Venezuelan production barely exceeds one million barrels per day, representing less than 1% of global supply.

In recent months, oil has experienced a sharp decline, with annual losses of 20% in 2025, the largest since the COVID-19 pandemic. This downward trend is primarily due to a supply surplus: US production in the Permian Basin continues to rise, and non-OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana are contributing to the excess. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that supply will exceed demand by about 3.8 million barrels per day this year, even after OPEC+ decided to maintain stable production levels in the first quarter.

Analysts anticipate mixed performance in the coming days, but with downward pressure. The price of WTI crude is showing signs of stabilization after reaching a key support level of $55.40, which could indicate a temporary bottom and a possible short-term recovery towards $58-60. However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent crude will fall to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, remaining at that level due to rising global inventories. Firms like ABN Amro and Capital Economics anticipate even lower prices, around $55, while BNP Paribas and JPMorgan do not rule out drops to $50 in the spring if the supply-demand imbalance persists.

Other factors to monitor include weakened demand due to slow economic growth in China and trade tensions inherited from the Trump era, which have reduced consumption in the world's largest energy importer. Furthermore, a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could flood the market with more Russian crude if sanctions are lifted, exacerbating the glut.

In optimistic scenarios, if intervention in Venezuela facilitates US investment and revives the local oil industry in the medium term, it could stabilize prices. But in the short term, technical analysis suggests a bearish trajectory, with descending moving averages acting as dynamic resistance. Forecasts such as those from LongForecast indicate a peak in January around $58.11 for WTI, followed by sideways movements with a downward bias.

In summary, oil prices in the coming days will be dominated by geopolitical volatility and oversupply, with prices likely fluctuating between $55 and $60. Investors should pay close attention to OPEC+ meetings and weekly inventory data for rapid adjustments. This dynamic impacts not only producers but also consumers, with forecasts predicting cheaper gasoline in the US, potentially the most affordable since the pandemic. 2026 is shaping up to be a year of low prices, benefiting import-dependent economies but posing a challenge to the extractive industry.

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