[βππ§ππ£] ππππ ππ π¦π£ πΉππ₯ππ ππ - Does An ALT Summer Make Any Senseγ?γ
ItΒ΄s crypto time!
Ughhh, yes itΒ΄s beginning to look a lot like Crypto.
Oh ,and I was right with calling that ATH last week, but who cares?
Nothing really changed, still the same boring ALT shit.
Friendly Advice
If I were you, I would stop reading my posts, because I need a holiday, a break away, but the Cryptoverse does not agree.
We all have different reasons to be in crypto, and I am sure most of you are here for the tech, the adrenaline, and the sense of community.
Not me, I got in because I like to buy low and sell high.
Always did and probably always will. I enjoy the game, the profit.
But currently, the crypto verse is like Disney Channel.
Nothing sharp, no blood, no pointy thingies.
Most alts are nowhere close to where I plan to sell, nor down enough to buy.
And itΒ΄s not even summer yet!
Give Me A Break!
Based on previous years, this is only going to get worse between Jul-Aug.
Then why do I hear people calling for an ALT Summer???
I donΒ΄t see it!
If itΒ΄s me, I know what's wrong with me:
I have crypto fatigue
I am just no longer able to take a step back and look at all I accomplished.
I guess the fact that I am typing this intro on a Monday is not really helping.
Come To The Point
Okay here I go,
This guy James made millions trading and now thinks he understands the cycle....
Even though I love James, itΒ΄s following messages like these that get you REKT,
He claims to be a billionaire and has made some gutsy moves, but this guy is all about the casino, and it shows as he is running through the Wall Street Cheat Sheet with 40X:
These moves are expected to take many months, and bottom-to-bottom should take 4 to 7 years, not 8 months....
But is he wrong about that Top?
Come on!
A July top?
This is what a summer top looks like on me....
He must have been reading my posts, and then stopped before I said itΒ΄s been extended by 6 months due to the tariffs.
The difference between him and me is.....
He made millions being a degenerate, I made thousands thinking I understand.
The other thing is, I would be careful calling an ALT summer with a peak in July or August.
ItΒ΄s just too freaking hot to get excited those months. But Van Poppe is calling an ALT Summer as well, and that is a bit more of a reliable source.
On top of the fact that nobody likes trading in summer, if I add 6-month tariff delays to the peak I expected by May 2025, the top should be after the summer.
Hence, I am ready for it, but not so sure it will come.
This Is Why Not
Personally, I am tracking several other things:
The Cycle - Based on the cycle, the top is not in a realistic conservative top, should be around 125-150K, and then some time to trickle down.
Macro - Tariffs are messing with the market, but the overall situation hints at more printing. If printing is approved over the summer, it takes a while to really make an impact.
Money Supply - More printing is what I look for most, because as you can see that Bitcoin follows the money supply to the tee.
Just look at when BTC hit bottom, in Dec 2022:
And the M2 Money supply hit its lowest point two months later:
Now, if Bitcoin follows that trend and that trend is my friend, let's see the expected forecast for the next 6 months:
| Month | Forecasted M2 | |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | 21,985 | |
| July 2025 | 21,906 | |
| August 2025 | 22,026 | |
| September 2025 | 22,174 | |
| October 2025 | 22,250 | |
| November 2025 | 22,429 | (FRED, Wikipedia, Number Analytics, Forecasts) |
November 2025 looks mighty tasty to me, so my bet is clear: if that trend continues, BTC will keep moving up, and then the idea of having another 2017 PARABO is in the stars:
The only doubt I have is, do we peak in July, by November, or do we wait till March 2026?
For that one, all you need is just a little:
But it will play out over these next six months, just make sure you are in, and not sidelined.
The real question remains: when we peak, what do I do?
What would you do with 50K
I guess itΒ΄s the million-dollar question? What to do with the profits?
The thing I know for sure is, I will not keep it in ALTS and ride it back to the bottom.
I have not bought any serious amount of ALTS in months, I did my shopping way back in August 2023.
Do I sell it all???
I will sell all my ALTS, and I donΒ΄t wait for a season or a top.
If we do not season or top prior to May 2026, I will sell whatever is left.
DonΒ΄t think I need to, as I expect Q4 does its thing, and all I need is a 3X on my ALTS to be satisfied!
Do You Sell Your Bitcoin?
Indeed, that is the million-dollar BTC question!
The thing is, there is nothing as easy as jumping on the hype train and calling for a million-dollar BTC. But BTC ainΒ΄t perfect, it beats fiat, and has a leg up on gold, but it ain't perfect.
On top of that, itΒ΄s known to do the manly thing, go soft, and dwindle after it peaks.
Now I have been around way too long to say never sell your Bitcoin, I will definitely sell mine if that allows me to buy my future.
But what to do when you do not need the money?
Does it make sense to take, for example, 50% of the profits of the table, move them into gold, and buy the next bloody bottom, just like I did in 2022?
If it were 2021, I would say Yes!
Did Bitcoin Become A Big Boy?
Is it real?
Has Bitcoin moved on?
Or is the idea that BTC now is more resilient, and less volatile, as much as a fairy tale as the extended cycle we were promised in 2021?
ETFs hold 6% 1.2 million BTC, and have just started....but ETFs can sell as well!
Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges has decreased significantly, dropping from around 3.1 million BTC in 2020 to approximately 2.2 million coins by March 2025, a reduction of about 900,000 BTC or roughly 29%.
Now that tells me more, as it shows that even throughout the bear market, but certainly from bull to bull, the total volume available dropped significantly.
Another myth, The Supply Crunch...that never came. I have been hearing about that one for years, but if only 29% got taken off exchanges in 5 years, even with these ETFs scooping up BTC as if it were an all-you-can-eat buffet....
It will take another 5 to get to the crunch, if it ever happens.
Bikini Bottom Line
I try not to look at the Doom or Boom scenarios.
I look at trends, at the past, at the market, at my plans, and my square pants.
So yes, I believe I will sell all my ALTS, take between 12K to 24K for them, say thank you.
That will cover my investment, and that money will go into gold and stables. But I need easy access because I will buy some land with it before May 2027.
Do I really care how much I make on my ALTS?
No, if itΒ΄s 12K, I did a 3X and I walk away smiling.
On my BTC? What will it be worth if it drops 60% from a 150K top? At 60K, I will still have a nice little profit, but I am a player. So I guess I will sell some and take the risk if we go beyond that 150 K.
I would take out 25% - 30%, and let the rest ride, a little risk management because...
Ehh, no, the other one:
I hope we come to peak ASAP, I want clarity, a Break, a new life..... been here, done her, now itΒ΄s time for the next big thing.
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love, and I am out of here!
Posted Using INLEO
Crypto fatigue is definitely real. I have felt it myself a time or two in the past. I am still curious about the idea of using BTC for collateral. I don't quite understand how it all works, but I am willing to learn and I think it sounds interesting.
BTC for COLLATERAL, borrowing against your BTC, to buy what, more BTC? Loooking at the cycle this summer might be the time to buy the AUG / SEP dip, and sell in NOV. But I will use my stables for that one.... lending my BTC is another story I did that in the past on Kucoin and that was kinda interesting but Celsius scared me away from anything that involves me not holding my keys !PIMP
Yeah, I haven't been able to totally figure it out yet. The posts I have read in the past have made it almost seem like there is zero downside to it, but I know that can't be the case.
We do not need to read to know that there is never 0 downside, but share one over next time please
A very sober look at the markets. One thing about Bitcoin is that people think it's expensive so may buy alts instead.
ItΒ΄s expensive and looking at the cycle did more Xs than most ALTS. Maybe people are lesser fools than I give them credit for! !PIMP
I still cant sell to hold fiat, but your plan for land and some physical gold makes sense.
Fiat is a means of exchange but only short term, because unlike Bitcoin it has no intrinsic value !PIMP