[ℕ𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕣] 𝕊𝕖𝕝𝕝 𝕐𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝔹𝕚𝕥𝕔𝕠𝕚𝕟 - 📈ALT season 40% vs No ALT season 60%📉

Ouch!
Still no ALTSZN!
March is the last month in my book, as April normally sucks.

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April Sucks

For two main reasons, tax season (people selling to pay their taxes).
Secondly, frontrunning the sell in May and go away sentiment.

This has been the case pretty much since I got into crypto, but April wasn´t always that bad....

Now May till September has been horrific these last 7 years, I have lost faith in the idea of ever having a crypto summer. It´s a myth like a white Christmas we all want it and it never happens.

But Peeps Love Hopium

And even though crypto looks like it´s going to hell in a handbasket and

There are still Peeps posting about a 250K BTC top in 2025:

And even Non People predict that shit:

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Three years ago I calculated that BTC should hit about 128K at the top of this cycle. A conservative calculation based on cycle lows and highs, and the diminishing returns trend.

I thought I was conservative but, now I think I might have been spot-on or even aggressive.

2021

In 2021, the BTC price broke out in January in 2024 it was November

Price in 2024

You see, we are late.

Up in Jan, Down in March 2021.
Up in November, Down in Feb 2025?

To go up, we need to go down, we need a correction and that dip should go to about 80K and take everything down with it.

We just hit the 3-month low and although I expected 80K this might have been enough to copy/pasta Q1 of 2021.

BTC finally had a correction.... kinda

Based on that I expect one more breakout before May, and probably within the next 3 weeks.

After this recent dump, it´s almost evident that this is what could be next:

I could be wrong because this is based on the 2021 trend and Macro for Crypto is a lot better now than it was 4 years ago.

What Changed

I do not have to tell you what changed!
We went from being criminalized to being idolized in less than a year.

That impact is of course mainly showing on BTC, alts still did not catch up.

The Hard Part

Those alts are worrying me. The FUD & HOPIUM are making it almost impossible to think.

Looking back all will be clear but I am up till my balls in alts and right now it´s one big blur.

We have dealers selling hopium, saying that everything has changed. Pushing that everlasting super cycle theory again.

And Fudsters telling us the market nowadays is not to be compared to the market from 4 years ago. Basically saying, no mo cycles, no mo ALTSZN.

Are they right? Is this cycle contaminated by Pump.Fun $TRUMP & $LIBRA, and that hot chick coin sucking out all retail money, and not pumping it back into the real crypto market #PUMP.NOFUN.

Plus the ETF profits do not flow back into smaller ALTS, like BTC profits used to.

Yes maybe cycles are dead....but that is only certain when the pattern breaks.

What Good Does All This Info Do Me?

It tells me that for now, we are still in the cycle, that there is still time.

There is no reason for that 120K not to be reached before May, especially because next to this Tuesday Dump we had some minor setbacks these last couple of Fridays.

Friday The 13th Events lately:

Black swans like these happen every cycle but not all in Q1.
Secondly, all famous BTC Top Is In signals are showing red.

That is why I still expect a pump.... but at the same time: this is crypto and that is why I am selling.

Just selling those who peak but sell nonetheless.

Not Panic Selling

Last week I told you how I did 7X on OM:

[ℕ𝕖𝕧𝕖𝕣] 𝕊𝕖𝕝𝕝 𝕐𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝔹𝕚𝕥𝕔𝕠𝕚𝕟 - WEN ALT Season

This week I decided to sell at least half of my OM.

It is peaking and with its Airdrop coming mid-March I think I will use the current momentum and maybe sell it all.

Then maybe buy some back in September.

Right now I sold 28% of my Bitvavo ALT Coin Holdings.

Yup, this dip and selling some OM pushed me to holding 28% of my Bitvavo portfolio in stables.

I hear you thinking:
But...but ALTSZN has not started!

My Reply: "but....but"

I called out the reasons for no ALTSZN this week and last, so I would not be surprised if ALTSZN is truly canceled this cycle.

Results Of A Dumbass Baby Selling His BTC:

Let´s See:

Last week my $600 BTC that I swapped for ALTS would have been worth $683, down 10%!
So $615!

That can not be right, I am sure I sold at a better price??

OOPS, that means just checking the weekly changes is not good enough....

Doing The Math

I sold my 600 euros in BTC at an average price of 94.5K Euro and currently BTC is at 84K Euro.

That means my BTC should now be worth.... 532 euros, thank god I sold???

Oh no... I swapped....
What would the math on that look like?

Let´s see what my swap is worth this week:

Ehh I just checked and

ETH Start $150: last week's worth $140 down 10% = $126 but actually:
I bought $177 ETH and it went down 36.5 % since buying so it should be $112

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Beam Start $125: last week's worth $61.5 down 21.5% = $48 but actually:
I bought $125 BEAM and it went down 74% since buying so it should be $32

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SUI Start $175: last week's worth $193 down 12% = $167 but actually:

I already sold $100 at a profit, so only holding $75 which is down 43% and should be worth $43

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SOL Start $100: last week's worth $114.5 is down 18% = $94, but actually:

It went down 43% since I bought it and should now be worth $58

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Curve Start $50: last week's worth $36 down 15% = $30.5 but actually:

I bought $57 it went down 51% and should now be $28

This week's total: $273

There is some good news though, yes in BTC my $600 would now be $532 and I would have a 12% loss.

While the alts I bought with the money from selling BTC are at $273, which is a 49% loss.

What Good News?

Those who can do math already noticed that I only have $534 invested in this swap.

So I still have $60 in stables from selling my BTC and I used those to buy BTC at a lovely 12% discount.

My plan to swap BTC for ALTS in December seems to have been a really bad idea.... especially if ALTSZN will truly be canceled.

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Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!

Posted Using INLEO