Making money on predicting US Measles cases! Weird? Yes!

4 days ago

Hi HODLers and Hiveans,

Nowadays, you can literally bet on anything!

As any gambler, I have tried my luck in sports betting. Believing I was better than the professionals or the market.
Spoiler alert: I was not.

Nevertheless, I do have better insight than your average Joe. Especially when it comes to analyze some data and have a rational thinking process. I am extremely good at predicting Political Elections (predicted both Trump wins and his loss, as well as Brexit, etc...).

Measles are on the rise and it has been a luccrative way to make money on my end. Trading the news dpeending on latest reported cases, vaccination rate and so forth as been good to me.

I used different websites to do so and Kalshi is one of my favorite. The only issue is that the liquidity is quite low (a few thousands $)

This is what it looks like. In my opinion, the 1,500 to 3,000 are a lock. US health department has done a GREAT job isolating cases and preventing the spread. The only county it really spread in is a Mennonite religious community in Texas. A part from that, cases were under control.

Currently, US as of May, 30th has reported 1,088 cases year to date. With a slowdown in the recent weeks.

Nevertheless, Canada has been overwhelmed over the past few weeks by hundreds of weekly cases. Same for Mexico (which is under reporting). Naturally, we had a rise in cases through air travel in Denver Airport recently. Also, northern US states which share the border with Canada have seen a spike in cases.

North Dakota just reported 30+ cases in the last 10 days. It had 0 cases in April.

That's all. I just love that I have the opportunity to be a part of these predictive market where I believe I can beat the house.