RE: Overwhelming FOMO... Is Bad for You!
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Instead of FOMO and FUD, what I am looking at during this bull market is these 30 indicators: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/crypto-market-cycle-indicators
Considering the exposure CoinMarketCap has, these indicators could end up being a self fulfilling prophecy. With zero indicators triggered, I would say we are in a safe zone for FOMO.
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For crypto, in general, yes, we are probably just at the beginning (maybe toward middle, depending on where you consider it started) of the last phase. And the indicators you linked probably offer a good-enough image, unless people wait for too many indicators to trigger. For specific tokens, I'd be more careful, since not all of them will top at the same time.
One thing I have come to realize is that the biggest correlation ETH and BTC has with is the money supply. Any interest rate cut could have massive implications.
https://inflationchart.com/eth-in-m3
Just curious, when in September does Fed announce its decision on the interest rate?
You can check them along withe the prediction market bets here: https://polymarket.com/dashboards/fed-rates
Thanks! Looks like the betters expect a 25bps rate cut in mid-September, which would be good for crypto.
Yes, but somewhat high interest rates are needed to keep the market from speculating on too many bad investments. Theres is a good chance that very low interest rates could mark the blow up top for this bull market. 25 BPS cut will not do much. We are at 4.5%. Anything under 1% will be very dangerous IMHO.
We are pretty far from 1%! Even if Trump manages to replace Powell sooner rather than later, I don't think we'll get that low this cycle. And I agree, very low interest rates will make more funds available for risky investments, which will push prices up in a spiral, and then crash them. Kind of what we expect in crypto anyway...