Tit for tat escalated quickly. Trump slaps 104% tariff on Chinese goods. European VAT is not a tariff, it's a high sales tax in the EU, affecting all products, hence neutral.
Quid pro quo-Strategie ist schnell eskaliert, nachdem China seine Zölle auf US-Produkte ebenfalls auf 34% angehoben hat, hat Trump die Zölle auf chinesische Produkte jetzt auf 104% erhöht.
Eigentlich würde man jetzt viel Popcorn brauchen, aber sobald die Zölle in Kraft treten, werden die Amerikaner nicht mehr viel zu Lachen haben, wenn sie sehen, dass sich damit viele Produkte ohne günstige US-Alternative spürbar verteuern werden.
Kann die Motivation hinter den Zöllen verstehen, aber denke man wird die Welt nicht mehr in das 20. oder 19. Jahrhundert zurückdrehen können.
Die Produktions-Jobs werden auch mit hohen Zöllen wegen dem technischen Fortschritt und den hohen Lohnkosten in den USA nicht mehr zurückkommen. Automatisierung und KI geschuldet.
Die Arbeitswelt entwickelt sich immer mehr Richtung Dienstleistungen weiter, die in der Handelsbilanz überhaupt nicht berücksichtigt werden. Dazu kommen die Investitionen in den US-Kapitalmarkt. Die ganze westliche Welt investiert in US-Aktien und Anleihen, wovon auch Amerikaner profitieren, und dann hat die USA auch noch den Leitwährungsvorteil. Können US-Dollar drucken und damit weltweit günstige Waren einkaufen.
Das Fiat-Problem lässt sich mit Zöllen auch nicht lösen.
Sollte sich die USA im Zuge des Zoll-Kriegs zunehmend isolieren, könnte das massive Auswirkungen auch auf den Aktienmarkt haben, weniger Exporte und weniger internationale Investoren bedeuten niedrigere Kurse bei 401K-Sparplänen, die viele Amerikaner für ihre Pension ansparen.
Die tatsächlichen Zollunterschiede mit der EU waren im Durchschnitt eher im einstelligen Prozentbereich.
Die EU hat höhere Anforderungen bei Lebensmittel und versucht ihre Märkte ebenfalls zu schützen, das stimmt, aber dafür punktet die USA wieder bei IT-Dienstleistungen und hat eine etwa ausgeglichene Leistungsbilanz mit der EU, wenn man Dienstleistungen mitberücksichtigt.
Auch muss es nicht mit jedem Land der Welt eine ausgeglichene Handelsbilanz geben.
In einem Interview hat der US-Zollberater Navarro die hohe Einfuhr-Umsatzsteuer in der EU kritisiert, aber die VAT (Umsatzsteuer) in der EU gilt für alle Produkte und ist daher neutral, kein Zoll.
Denke insgesamt, dass der von Trump und seinen Zoll-Beratern vom Zaun gebrochene Zoll-Krieg grandios scheitern und zu einem großen Wohlstandsverlust führen wird. Vor allem für die USA.
Was sagt ihr dazu?
Made in China
https://x.com/AdameMedia/status/1909692269902676388
EU VAT tax is not a tariff
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1909458154443981123
Musk vs Navarro
https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1909614713106751989
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1909676876580504014
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1909676572191400065
https://x.com/mrp/status/1909414607741243710
"There will be plenty of jobs for robots"
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1909455315520876950
English
Quid pro quo strategy has escalated quickly, after China also raised its tariffs on US products to 34%, Trump has now raised tariffs on Chinese products to 104%.
You would actually need a lot of popcorn now, but once the tariffs come into force, Americans won't have much to laugh about when they see that this will make many products without a cheap US alternative noticeably more expensive.
I can understand the motivation behind the tariffs, but I don't think it will work, it's not possible to turn the world back to the 20th or 19th century any more.
Even with high tariffs, manufacturing jobs will not come back at all due to technological progress and high US labor cost. Automation and AI doing the rest.
Work is developing more and more in the direction of services, which are not taken into account in the trade balance. Additionally there are also significant investments in the US capital market. The entire Western world is investing in US stocks and bonds, which also benefits Americans, and then the US also has the reserve currency advantage. It can print dollars and use them to buy cheap goods worldwide.
The fiat problem cannot be solved with tariffs either.
If the US becomes increasingly isolated due to the tariff war, this could also have a massive impact on the stock market, fewer exports and fewer international investors mean lower prices for 401K savings plans, which many Americans are dependent on for their retirement.
Actual tariff differences with the EU have been more in the single digits on average.
The EU has higher requirements for food and is also trying to protect its markets, true, but the US scores again in IT services and has a roughly even current account balance with the EU when services are taken into account.
And not every country in the world has to have a balanced trade balance with each other in the first place.
In an interview, US tariff advisor Navarro criticized the high import sales tax in the EU, but VAT (value added tax) in the EU applies to all products and is therefore neutral, not a tariff.
Overall, I think that the tariff war launched by Trump and his economic advisors will fail miserably and lead to a major loss of prosperity. Especially for the US.
What do you think?
Posted Using INLEO
Tariffs are not going to work, at least not the way Trump hopes for.
This is a trade war. In wars, the majority suffers. In the postwar period, a few become rich.
I have a feeling these trade wars will have a lot of effects Trump didnt think of. One positive side effect seems to be that his action drains Putins wallet
eally interesting take — especially where you mentioned how services aren't properly factored into trade balance debates. That part’s so overlooked, yet it's a huge strength for the U.S. with tech and finance exports. Makes the whole “bring back factories with tariffs” thing feel kinda outdated, especially in a world driven by automation.
Also hadn’t really thought about the impact on 401Ks if foreign investment pulls back. That’s a solid point — trade wars can hit way closer to home than people expect.
Do you think the rise of BRICS and digital currency alliances could speed up the shift away from the dollar if the U.S. keeps pushing this isolation route?
I think the "secret strategy" that Trump is attempting, is while talking big about tariffs, I believe his real goal is to equalize and minimize tariffs, even eliminate them if possible.
By pushing tariffs up, it forces countries to test the rhetoric to see if he's serious. Yes, he's serious. Trump would put 1000% tariffs on China if need be - with the ultimate goal of settling on something mutually beneficial, like a modest 10% / 10% reciprocal. That's my theory anyway.
Yep, absolutely and actual threat, without allies you cannot win a trade war against China, BRICS, rest of the world will unite and continue trading, with minimal tariffs, even threatening the USD dominance in the long run, when investors will turn away from the US stock market because of tariffs, and lower export, growth potential of US tariff protected companies. Also innovation will suffer with protectionism. Shielding oneself from global competition cannot be good in the long run.
I hope so I want to have negative dollars and positive assets so i can watch it decrease in value and pay it back when its been debased a bunch more.
things are getting tight/hard.
Things would continue to get worse if this kind of decisions goes on
It's not great to start a trade war on China, other countries might knee to trump, but Chinese are too proud to do that, they would rather die
!PIZZA
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@davideownzall(3/15) tipped @vikisecrets
Moon is coming
The tariffs back and forth are a lot…does trump know the pains he wants to put Americans through if they are isolated because of this crazy…I don’t think he would achieve his aim..hopefully not
I think it's Trump's opening bid, outrageous as it may seem. "Oh no, trade war!!!" is the response he wants from everyone. "Oh no, it's BAD, fail miserably" is the response he expected. If his goal is a trade war, it'll go badly. But I don't believe he wants a trade war, he wants trade PEACE. He just wants everyone to believe he wants a trade war, after all it's TRUMP.
Trump knows that nobody wants trade PEACE more than... well every other country besides the US. The first country agreeing to 0/0 tariffs will be the bellwether for other countries to follow suit, maybe even including China. Zero tariffs would super-charge the world economy.
But countries looking to retaliate to save face will risk everything and cause great pain in the meantime. They are really hurting themselves more than anyone else the longer they are stubborn. It'll be more embarrassing when they have to compromise in the end, which they will have to do eventually.
Trump's response is basically, "Come make it in the US. It might be cheaper to pay US workers, then to pay US tariffs." But he knows that's not practical. Next best: "Let's work out a deal."
!BBH
I think globalization is dead and Trump is just a symptom of what's coming.
Oh noo. Looks like the Chinese are fighting back against Trump
Looks like stocks would go down even more :(
Herrlich so ein Krieg der FIAT Währungen gegeneinander. 😅
!BEER
Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass der "Plan" von Trump aufgehen wird. Ich weiß nur, dass die Begründung sehr zweifelhaft ist.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1jvbasj/tit_for_tat_escalated_quickly_trump_slaps_104/
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Higher prices for Americans won’t bring jobs back. Robots and tech will do the work instead. Tariffs is basically like an old solution for a new world
Wenn Trump sich da mal nicht ein Eigentor geschossen hat oder gar ein paar mehr.
Alle Länder müssten nun verstehen, sie müssen versuchen sich von den USA unabhängiger zu machen.
Yep, bald steht die USA ohne Verbündete da, zuerst Zölle gegen Nachbarländer, dann gegen die ganze Welt. Das kann nie funktionieren.
Und mal schauen was die Bevölkerung sagt, wenn es ihnen richtig ans Geld geht, das ihre Aktien in Keller sind ist bestimmt nur der Anfang.
This is quite a ride for the economy. Hope we can survive this!
The good news came a while ago that the tariff has been suspended for three months, which is why we have seen prices rise again in the markets.
I have no idea. With the current plans to reduce the tariffs on every country except for China, I think anything can happen. It's more focused now, but I don't think the tariffs will work if its against the entire world.
So this actually a war between us & China.