The 90 day US tariff "pause" is not a pause: The US slaps a 125% tariff on China, 25% on Canada and Mexico and a 10% on the EU, UK and the rest of the world.
Was bedeutet die "90-Tage-Pause" von Zöllen in Wirklichkeit: Die Pause ist keine Pause, sondern eine Steuererhöhung.
Die USA verhängen einen 125% Zoll auf China, 25% auf Kanada und Mexico und einen 10% auf die EU, UK und den Rest der Welt.
Das was jetzt als große Erleichterung an den Börsen gefeiert wird, ist im Prinzip eine massive Steuererhöhung auf importierte Produkte. In 90 Tagen könnte das ganze Drama dann wieder von vorne losgehen.
Mit den 10% Zoll auf die meisten Länder wird man vermutlich leben können, aber die 125% Zoll gegen China, ist eine wirtschaftliche Kriegserklärung auch gegen die eigene US-Industrie, die von Importen abhängig ist. Selbst der 10% Zoll werden viele Produkte in den USA verteuern ohne eine wirkliche Alternative zu bieten.
Sollte der 125% Zoll auf chinesische Produkte bleiben, würde das eine massive Verteuerung bedeuten.
Andere asiatische Länder könnten davon profitieren. Firmen würden nach kreativen Lösungen suchen, wie sie chinesische Waren über andere Länder in die USA leiten könnten. Billiger wird es dadurch aber nicht.
Trump möchte auch so wie Biden China erpressen, TikTok einer amerikanischen Firma zu verkaufen. Chancen sehe ich derzeit als minimal.
Was ebenfalls ein bisschen untergegangen ist, ist dass Trump den Zoll auf Kanada und Mexico wieder auf 25% erhöhen will.
Ausnahmen von den US-Zöllen gibt es derzeit teilweise auf Energie, Pharma-Produkte und Halbleiter.
Die 90-Tage-Frist sind auch eine tickende Zeitbombe. Mit der Pause und Anhebung der Zölle auf 125%, 25% und 10% ist der Zollkrieg auch nicht beendet, sondern fängt gerade erst an.
Das ist eines der skurrilsten Dinge der letzten Jahrzehnte, die ich wirtschaftspolitisch erlebt habe.
Denke, die USA wird mit dieser Zollpolitik gegen die ganze Welt und ihre Verbündeten grandios scheitern. Das kann so nie funktionieren.
Was denkt ihr?
Pump and Dump?
90 day tariff "pause". Canada and Mexico will face a 25% tariff, EU and UK 10%, China 125%.
US Tariff War
https://x.com/RepHorsford/status/1910055230945087913
https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1910019818910015687
https://x.com/GeopoliticsDH/status/1910034166420537747
https://x.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1909825569660772654
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910068984457597166
https://x.com/tahrajirari/status/1910025902144233624
English
What does the “90-day pause” in tariffs actually mean: The pause is not a pause, but a tax increase.
The US is imposing a 125% tariff on China, 25% on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on the EU, UK and the rest of the world.
What is now being celebrated as a great relief on the stock markets is in principle a massive tax increase on imported products. In 90 days, the whole drama could start all over again.
We will probably be able to live with the 10% tariff on most countries, but the 125% tariff on China is an economic declaration of war also against the US industry, which is heavily dependent on imports. Even the 10% tariff will make many products in the US more expensive without offering a real alternative.
If the 125% tariff on Chinese products remains, this would mean a massive increase in prices.
Other Asian countries could benefit from this. Companies would look for creative solutions to channel Chinese goods to the US via other countries. However, this won't make it cheaper.
Like Biden, Trump would also like to blackmail China into selling TikTok to an American company. I currently see the chances for this as minimal.
What has also gone under the radar a little is that Trump wants to raise the tariff on Canada and Mexico back to 25%.
There are currently partial exemptions from US tariffs on energy, pharmaceutical products and semiconductors.
The 90-day deadline is also a ticking time bomb. With the pause and increase in tariffs to 125%, 25% and 10%, the tariff war is not over, it is just beginning.
This is one of the most bizarre things I have seen in terms of economic policy in recent decades.
I think that the US will fail spectacularly with its tariff war against the entire world and its allies. In my opinion it can never work like that.
What do you think?
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I think we have a bumpy ride ahead. This tariff thing aint just gonna blow over and everything goes back to "normal". I am also not so sure that China just folds that easily.
A relief for crypto community.
I said he was going to change it a couple of times. It's like a random claim generator :)
Haha, random number generator 😂
This is outright market manipulation. But we all know that the rules are made for the weak.
World is too dependent on each other nowadays, you can't come up taxing the whole world, and products from China are needed... One must have first the alternatives
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Moon is coming
125% on China is huge 👀 if the idea is to make everything way more expensive than what it already is then good job to Trump, this is getting ridiculous. I'm not sure how companies will handle it at this point
Yes, what got missed is that countries that retaliated (ie Canada) don't get the "reduced" 10% tariff.
Also the "reduced" 10% tariff is still more than before.
Brilliant Art of the Deal by Trump.
Heaps of countries lining up to do deals with US and get zero or very low tariffs.
China is totally f-cked.
They cannot survive without selling into the massive and still growing US domestic market. Their own domestic market and Europe is shrinking because of ultra-low fertility.
This is disruptive for sure but Trump and the US hold a winning hand.
BTW your Leavitt related meme totally disproves itself.
Going nuclear then shifting to a more moderate position once your opponents have shown their cards is precisely The Art Of The Deal.
People are happy for the pause but these are only going to accumulate more issues after the 90days…the drama is already a lot …I don’t know how Americans would survive the impact this would have on them
I heard an interesting theory recently that he is intentionally creating turmoil in the market to directly benefit himself and his family through market manipulation. Basically his family members short stocks right before he declares massive tarrifs and then they watch the entire market drop and make huge profits. Then they buy stocks before he announces the removal of tarrifs and watch the market go up and make themselves more profit. then repeat - short the market before the tarrif announcements and then buy before they announce the removal. Its speculation but its pretty easy to make money in the stock market when you know exactly what it's going to do.
Wouldn't that be insider trading on a state level?
I don't know if that is considered insider trading but I definitely dont think that its legal. I don't think that matters really anyway though. His administration has already broke the law multiple times since coming to office and has pushed the boundaries of whats legal on others. This is all just speculation. I can't confirm it. It just might be an explanation of what's going on. The notion that this is all an expert negotiations tactic just seems absurd to me given that most countries seem to be turning away from dealing with him and are instead working out alternate trade deals with new partners that exclude him.
I don't know if we will ever know the true plan he has with all of this nonsense, if there is a plan.
It seems as if he has eliminated tariffs, but in reality they are much higher than before he took office.
Oh noo :( could this get any better :(
The tariff on China is a big deal and it might affect the US in some way
The tariff war still continues. And who will be at loss here, it's the consumers :(
I have no idea what will happen with the tariff wars. I don't think it will help too much, but only time will tell.