The Fall Of The Blood Moon

So it was the Moon after all?!

Some years back I looked at the Moon-Crypto connection. The idea was that BTC rises and falls with new and full moons. There was some really good correlation for several months in like 2022? (is it really that long ago already?!), but when I looked at a 1+ year time span that connection looked rather weak. I stopped looking at it since I thought it was a purely spurious correlation.

But yesterday I stumbled upon these charts! Shout out to Osemka @Osemka8 and doji crow @conviction_meta on X for making them public. The correlation is so good that it cannot possibly be explained away by chance.

What we see is this: Blood moons occur in sets with a relatively long hiatus in between. Bitcoin goes up on average whenever we enter this hiatus and goes down when we enter the period with blood moons. You can see the blood moons marked with lines in both charts.

Linear Chart

Log Chart

Say WHAT?!

This is too crazy. We can see an essentially perfect fit for the blood moon-BTC connection (with the BTC peaks being somewhat less reliably predicted than the lows). The important difference here is that it only counts the blood moons and I only looked at the moon phases. So the next blood moon is on 3/3/2026 which means that this could actually end the bear phase. Every single time so far Bitcoin started to rally after a set was completed. The next blood moon is on 12/31/2028 which would leave us around 3 years of a potential bull phase.

If this holds true once more, BTC should in fact not go much lower than what whatever price we get in March. That doesn't mean there won't be deeper corrections along the way, but price should on average go up. We can also see that this hiatus we are about to start is the longest so far. So perhaps there is plenty of room for "bull market sentiment" to form and perhaps even usher in a true "ALT season".

Conclusion

The data for the blood moon-BTC connection now covers around 15 years with 5 full sets - it doesn't seem very rational to simply discount it. While I doubt we will ever truly know why this connection is there in the first place (perhaps traders are Astrologers?), we should probably use it in our favor. In other words, don't panic sell for the next 3 years! It will also be interesting to see if either this pattern or the roughly one year bear phase for BTC plays out...

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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