Still No Growth For Alts After 4 Years
Rise of the Few
The Alt market this cycle is different to the last ones mainly because only a select few have been able to make any significant gains. Overall, on average the Alt market has been flat for 4 years. Then, there are also coins like Hive that have continuously underperformed (except for very brief pump and dumps). If you haven't been lucky to have held some of the "select few" that have actually grown, your portfolio looks likely quite bleak. I guess the main reason for this is that we have exponentially more coins and tokens than in the last cycle. Money therefore spreads to more "stuff" and gets diluted. The interesting part now is that I don't really know how Alts will look when the bear market starts. Because how do we go 95% down from prices that are already 95% down? Should that actually happen and we don't get any sort of bull euphoria int he coming months, it's going to kill most coins/projects. Even Hive would be struggling with the debt level getting too large should Hive be worth only a couple of cents.
I have no idea if that's actually going to happen, but it does make sense overall that the crypto market simply can't sustain thousands upon thousands of projects that also compete with one another. We are already seeing many web3 games capitulating at a time when they should be striving (or at the very least not crashing).
The set up of this cycle is very similar to the last one (1-2-3), but we can see that the MC is still under the previous ATH. This is why this cycle feels so different. Moreover, there are now only a few months left for the classic end date of winter 2025 for the market to peak. Yet we can see a big potential to around 5T - which would coincide with the late stage of a bull market.
Conclusion
Since March 2025 the market has at least been in an upturn. Should the market rise a bit more, I am quite confident that we will see some sort of a parabolic move overall. Will it go to around 5T? If so, it would trigger a sell event and not selling here would be unwise. But we can already see that it simply can't happen at the classic end date. So it would already be novel that the market would need to shift to around middle of 2026. But that still seems more likely than a downturn overall which would be catastrophic for investors (but not necessarily bad for crypto in the grand scheme).
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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" 2026..... downturn overall which would be catastrophic for investors " - Hmmmm... If HIVE doesn't get at least 1 or 1.50 dollars in this bull market what start to end in next 3 or 4 month time... then many apps will not survive in this HIve system. And this is a serious problem, 99.99% of apps depend on our HP which we hold.... what they print out and they sell every month + They depend on the market price, they need a high price to create reserves for the next bear cycle, ...and next bad thing with this low price they will print this platform dead in a few months . We have too many bots under many projects that just pull coins out of here... like there is no tomorrow. If HIVE stays at $0.20 or go mega low here , rewards become worthless → users leave → ecosystem collapses.
I don't even have to prove , I just have to be patient and wait .... you fill see if they want go here more low and this scenario play out when some big idiot on top continues to sell knowingly and intentionally. Many of our whales have all these expensive BTC coins now, and they won't put them back here, but continue to use their AI and robotic pages to extract something from us more every month .
well I guess one could point to Steem and see it's still running although it's being completely exploited with a lower price even. But I agree that it would be hard if not impossible (at least in the practical sense) to continue this chain if we don't see at least $1-2 this cycle.
Yes steem is still out there , but they not have users , it just is like a dead zombie wanders alone in the dead hayfield waiting to be shot in the head.
THey users left long time, now they ecosystem slow moves 0 ... step by step . And we fill go like this also if we not fix are bot problems soon ... and hold normal price also up in bull market time , so that users can also make themselves strong, not just sit here and clap their hands together, saying that we are happy when just dust is flying around us.
@tobetada The situation with altcoins has been frustrating to watch because the growth really hasn’t matched the time that has passed. Bitcoin keeps pulling the spotlight, especially with the ETFs bringing in steady money, while so many alts remain flat or even fading. Oversupply and lack of strong new narratives seem to be holding them back. Still, history shows cycles do turn eventually and capital rotates again. Your point about four years with no change feels like a reminder that patience in crypto is both hard and necessary
Its been better to trade than hodle this cycle as for now, but it can change fast. I hope the Total market cap chart breaks out soon! We don't need more than 2 months to go vertical like last time for the final wave.
yes indeed! The TOTAL2 chart does look a lot better and I guess 2-3 months could actually give those kinds of returns. Although last time the season still went into late 2021 when we look at the pattern (a quick reversal in BTC.D and a long period at the bottom), which would implicate mid 2026 (although it would run counter to the classic end date). It's going to be interesting to see which way it'll go.
Yes we better get going!
Euphoria is fast, distribution is slow.
I am hoping for a good finish this year for Hive
Yes alts are in a bad way this cycle, especially Hive. If it doesn't peak by late Q4, then i see only bear market for 2026. It's looking bad right now.
Very good points/concerns here.
Damn, I can't wait for December, too many talks and analysis of Alt season so far and I'm in too much suspense, I can't wait for it to be over with.
don't forget to sell :D
Certainly 😀