Okay, Let's Talk About The Bear
Seems like we may not be able to avoid it
In my last post about BTC, I argued we could see a very good upcoming year. I haven't really entertained a big bear scenario since that would spell doom for Alts. I mean, where would that leave the Alt market when almost all coins are already at All Time Lows? But I also recognize that this clearly is a bias on my side and the market doesn't care about my feelings. In a way, it would actually be interesting to see what happens should the markets tank for some time. I am assuming that
- many projects would fail if the downturn is anything like we have seen in the past bear markets
- there could be a historic buying/hodling opportunity for projects that survive it
But there are also two caveats for them: Without a massive Alt season in 2025, is it really reasonable to assume we will see a 95% correction in the coming years? Although this is limited to Alts, since BTC had a somewhat reasonable rally. The other point is that it will be a challenge to know which projects will fair well. I assume this actually takes a very deep look at the projects to see what they have been doing previously and how well they are equipped to deal with upcoming hardships. E.g., looking at Hive would require knowledge about the Debt level and how HBD could crash because of it (and also knowledge that HF28 actually reduced that risk).
TA for BTC & Hive
Let's look at two relevant projects (we are all obviously exposed to Hive). These would be scenarios following previous declines. One would be almost identical to previous corrections (red) while the other would be a less severe turn out (blue).
A -77% correction would place BTC almost exactly at $30k. It would peak at around Q4 of 2026 before reversing course. A more mid sized correction of around -50% would take price to around $60k at the same time frame. This scenario imo looks more probable since we didn't get the normal blow off top for BTC. It therefore seems likely that the correction wouldn't be too severe and if so, price now at around $87k would already be half way there. In other words, the correction would already be almost over.
For Hive the picture is more difficult to paint. Would we see another 95% correction? In fact, one could argue that the bear never ended for Hive (and other Alts as well). It has essentially been one painful move down for 4 years with a short relief rally (?) in 2024. If so, then we don't really have a reference for a previous downtrend and price is now down over 97%.
Previously, I have argued that we have so far always seen a "U-shaped recovery" after a price crash as we have seen in recent months. There is some horizontal support in the 9-10 cents area - so the question is: has Hive bottomed? If not, there is no support. A 95% correction from the relief rally would take price to around 3 cents. This price would seriously test the network and seems to be a breaking point. Will witnesses continue to run their nodes? Will HBD collapse?
Price is already down 85% from the former peak and it seems too depressing to think Hive could actually drop down into the low cent area. But that is what I would call the max bear scenario. To be blunt, I never expected Hive to actually revisit 10 cents, but here we are. So I am open to this bear scenario - if so, Hive like all other Alts will become a conviction game: do you actually belive in the tech, the community, the promise? If it survives, buying or hodling should in principal be very rewarding.
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Until the power bestowed by the ninjamine is transferred from those that currently have it to the restivus, more of the same is all we can expect, imo.
Buy more hive, it's on sale.
but it's used for the DHF right? Not having a funding mechanism would be a serious flaw - I have seen a project fail because of it
It has a funding mechanism, they call it the hbd stabilzer.
I am not an expert, but can't help sharing thoughts, lol.
30K is almost the bottom of the last bull run of BTC. After 2021 ATH, BTC fell to 16K, and that was above all previous highs (except for 19.8K of 2017). Why will BTC perform worse in 2025-2026 in its full glory time?
BTC has become less volatile, but it's not only about highs but lows too.
BTC won't fall lower than 50K or so. It will reach it in 2026 and then turn into accumulation, and bear market fear may fade out. That's when ETH might start climbing/surging to new ATH and that triggers people buying weaker alts - in 2026. Even without ETH, as soon as BTC finds the bottom in 2026 and bear market fear ends, people will start buying alts to speculate. And now - fear makes the small alts market dead.
Altseason isn't about a 4-year cycle, it's about circumstances.
DYOR 😄
I think you make some good points. I am expecting the same thing essentially
I think that next real support for Hive is around 6.5 cents after we fill that gap down in October... There was support at 10 cents but that is now definitely broken and it looks like we will see Hive under nine cents soon...
but it actually went to 3 cents on Binance :D
Well, that is not what it shows on Trading View, I guess if it goes to 3 cents I would have to buy even more Hive :)
If we go in bear ( i was say it lost last 4 months 🤣 ) , you can take Hive and go f..k off 💁💁 , This coin will not survive a bear market at such a low price when everyone has been stripped of 99.90% of their value, funny man 💁
the thing is, however, that you can say this about almost all other Alts atm. The best of projects are struggling and seeing ATLs constantly. As long as the nodes keep running and HBD doesn't break for long periods I think we are actually fine. The community has proven to be quite loyal... Are you invested in any other Alts that you are more hopeful?
Agree. If Hive costs 0.02$, I won't sell as 20$ for 1000 HIVE is nothing. I ll keep posting, hoping for the better. I am sure some competitors of Hive will die out meanwhile - all those endless layers 2 of ETH, all those traders of promises. The problem is how we can climb to top200 at least - this is the problem, but this problem isn't new, it is not about current ATL.
Polkadot, ATL, #45, backed by huge money and marketing:
My Hive node will keep running even if we are at half a cent Hive, I don't sell any of my witness earnings anyway, so the price doesn't matter.
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STOPThat's such a painful realization, that the markets don't care about our feelings and that no depth would be considered too low by the market if that's where the wind blows it 🤣. Damn!
If that happens, hopefully an Altseason would come to save us down the line, maybe after three years or so 🥲.
just another 3 more years :D
🤣🤣😭😭
I hope there would be some a period of recovery next year
I have hopes that HBD will not collapse in the coming years