If We Head Into A Bear Now...

Q4 is dead?

Sure, there are some weeks left and perhaps some more in Q1, but at this point I don't think anybody is expecting much anymore. I don't think it's too soon to call this cycle a complete disappointment. Yet, in a way at least BTC has had an average run. So perhaps we just have to blame it on Alts. And this raises an obvious question: what is going to happen to Alts if we actually head into a bear now? Since most projects have never really recovered from the last bear market, a "normal" bear market where we see everything going down by like 95%+ would absolutely obliterate the crypto landscape. But perhaps it makes more sense that without a major pump and Altseason, Alts will also not go into such a deep recession. But this is crypto, so anything is possible...

An acid test for crypto

In a very real sense the start of a bear market could be an acid test for Alts. If we already see many chains/projects going out of business at the "height of the bull", I can't imagine just how many will fail if we get a deep and prolonged correction. We recently have already seen many crypto games collapse and even bigger chains like Kadena hanging up the dial. There is going to be chaos and a massive reshuffling among the market should there be a big outflow of cash. I guess the main benefit for this would be to see what projects could actually survive such circumstances. Because if they do, not only would competition be eliminated, but they would also prove that their core concepts actually work.

Expect the unexpected

Should the cycle do its thing, I would still expect the unexpected. This could either be a complete crash in which 90%+ of projects fade and get replaced by the ones that survive (with some obvious new comers) or a bear market without any teeth. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a deep or prolonged correction and a floor that would be much higher than most expect. In that case it would seem that the crypto cycles are a thing of the past. Either way, it still wouldn't be great since I am pretty sure everybody wanted to take some profits this cycle. At this point everyone seems exhausted and tired. Many won't make it through the next 4 (?) years.

Conclusion

The absolute worst scenario for Alts seems all but certain. It's either quit or hodl and hope for the best. Some diversification and reallocation could make sense as well. Who will have the strength to persevere? It will probably be a mix of a strong community, funding capabilities, a good roadmap and a vibrant ecosystem. Hive has all of this - so I am not really worried that we will make it. Do you feel the same?

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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