HIVE/BTC - It's Been A While

Has it been a year already?

I used to regularly cover the HIVE/BTC chart, but since the ratio just kept falling I didn't see much sense in covering it anymore. Apparently we are sitting on 0.00000109 in case you were wondering. We just kept adding zeroes. I remember one guy pointing out that this ratio was going to ultimately keep falling. It turns out he was right all along. I guess it just depends on the time frame, and his main argument was that Hive was inflationary and BTC was not. It's a solid basic argument to make, but I argued that Hive would be putting much more to the table in the coming years (in other words, innovation could trump tokenomics). Perhaps with @VSC / MAGI launch on 11.11 things could be heading in that direction again.

-99.63%

That's the percentage for the value loss of Hive against BTC in around 5 years. At this point we might as well say 100%, although there are still a lot more zeros before hitting the ultimate 0.

The chart becomes a little more interesting when we structure it with some trend lines and we can spot a bear pattern that is seemingly just repeating over and over. And btw it is obvious from this chart that there has never been an ALT season since 2022.

We can see a descending wedge with essentially no support (which is why I left the blue line dotted). But I do find the pattern from 2020 and 2025 very interesting - they look essentially identical (it can also be drawn into the middle part).

The only chance for a revival is that we somehow follow into the footsteps of the 2021 reversal. the pattern for that has at least been set up, what is now "only" missing is the reversal. Curiously, we even seem to be aligning with the time frame as well: We saw the reversal in January and it looks like it could happen again. Perhaps one more last correction?

In my Hive post I argued that we'd see a trend change at the turn of the year as well. This would coincide with the chart here. Just for fun: this is how it could look.

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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