Have You Started To Power Down Hive?
Q4 is a comin'
Sure, it's great to power up Hive, especially when thinking about the long term future this platform has. But even if you think Hive has a bright future, it might be a good idea to start powering down as history has shown that one can get stuck in the 4 year cycle. Take 2021: selling only a fraction at the top could have gone a long way after the more than 3 years of bearish price action. Or to put it another way, selling part of your stake could be used to buy cheaper Hive in the years to come. Sure, this strategy could be a disaster if Hive should "make it", but so far it has always been the smarter move to sell at the end of the 4 year cycle.
As posted before, I think the mid term outlook for Hive might look like this:
While I am not certain about a higher second peak for 2026, some sort of peak at the end of Q4 or beginning of Q1 is almost certain. The tricky question is how much should one sell at a possible top? If we are greedy the answer is 100% since we can buy it back a lot cheaper. But obviously we don't know how it will play out. Personally, I think I will power down 50% of my stake. Since it takes 13 weeks to do so, it essentially means that I have to start in the coming weeks.
Selling Hive doesn't feel good
In my older charts I still have the target of $20-$25 for Hive :) Yeah, I think that's probably not going to happen anytime soon. We all know that the true valuation for this network is a lot higher than 20 cents. And even at $1 it seems undervalued. The ecosystem is large and active, it's use case is unique in crypto. Perhaps price would be a big higher if we already had the smart contract system in place by vsc - it is a feature that has been missing for too long and the absence of it has probably had its toll.
While I don't like the idea of "losing" half of my stake in the coming months (should price go to $1+ again), I think it would be even worse not selling and seeing Hive at 10-20 cents in 2026-2027 again. In fact, I am certain about this. Should Hive go for a higher peak in 2026 I will still have at least 50% to sell then... Not looking forward to becoming a dolphin of course, but I guess the longer strategy is to buy back cheaper. On the other hand, I totally see this not working out and Hive breaking its ATH and me losing my stake as is usual in crypto. Don't get me wrong, I certainly want to grow my stake in the long term as long as Hive is still active, but for now it would be crazy to not sell at least 30-50% in Q4.
Conclusion
I guess I might have become a crypto realist after all. 100xs seem to be a thing of the past or it requires extreme luck to buy the right coin at the right time. Taking profits is a skill that most lack (me included) and this cycle could be a good place to start honing this skill.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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oh wow, you have 0 HBD. my question is rather on should I sell all HBD now now or wait.
the same as your, taking out half of our stake seems to be a well calculated approach. The big question is always be, when?
sell for Hive?
yes, to flip so we get multiplier
I wouldn’t. Not when we are going below .15 cents , 25% plus lower in 2026/2027. Hive is in a bear market now, while most the rest the space is up in bull run up 500% on average from 2022 bottom. Hive is 25% below its 2022 bottom. It’s obviously going much lower when the cycle turns for the main tier crypto’s. Not a chance Hive acts different and goes up when everything else comes down for that part of cycle. Just obvious we see most liking going to a dime USD, but definitely going below the August 2024 low of .14 cents. Might as well hold the HBD longer since it’s earning 15% APR and u can get Hive cheaper. !PIZZA !ALIVE
I have a little HP in my account so I will not power down. I'm thinking about buying more Hive instead :)
Oh, yeah! I think I will too. It really feels like the right time to start building on Hive — trying to create projects and actually think about moving forward (without forgetting about profit, of course).
Thanks for the post, it gives me hope 🙂
Q4 indeed historically should be the best quarter although crypto space and its cycle doesn't feel the same. When it comes to Hive strategy, I am planning to start powering down only if the price will get close to $0.50 which I don't see it. I understand that by doing so I will not have free Hive on my hands to trade, but if there will be hype I will still get some liquid to sell. We'll see...
I guess that makes sense. Historically the move up only lasted a couple of months, but at least it will prevent you from selling too much 😅
That's also the ballpark percentage I've come up with, seems reasonable but what's left to be decided is selling at a specific price point or gradually as the price climbs higher and higher. Might do the later to get better exit points.
I would definitely "ladder sell" over several weeks
I agree that is it is also important of thinking of taking some profit
Same here, I will power down and convert to HBD instead.
Yes.
Last time we only had one day to sell everything at $3.42
It comes and goes in the blink of an eye.
Be prepared ….
I have not powered down anything but converted some hbd to hive and waiting to a good price when I can convert back to HBD
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@geneeverett(10/20) tipped @foxkoit
geneeverett tipped dewabrata
geneeverett tipped tobetada
Come get MOONed!
I sold 125K Hive in 2021 , leaving me with 5K left. I bought most of it at a dime in 2020 plus some from the Steem fork and earnings, When we went above a dollar I powered down and ended up getting two weeks out above $2.75 It literally changed my life!
Those days are over. My point being if hive pumped here you’d be a fool not to sell some. Hive is currently in a bear market while the space overall is in bull market. Hive will be going much lower in 2026/2027, anyone pretending it being way below our 2022 bear low while 99% of space is up 500% same period is just not being honest. !PIZZA !AIIVE
I only mention my luck in 2021 with us going to $3.33 top and me getting a power down our at that price because you’d be a fool at that time to think we would not crash back to .50 cents fast. We did months later. Only other time I powered down was when we pumped to .68 in January, it was artificial and obvious we’d be in teens again later in 2025, we sure did. It’s just being smart to sell if something is up 3000% from what u paid for it 18 months prior. We have bled users and the DHF is printing way too much and it puts pressure on Hive. You shouldn’t feel bad about selling a crypto token, that’s just silly. It’s cult like to shame people for doing so. I never ended up buying back the 100K plus hive I sold for average of $1.90 when the power down cycle ended, I have earned a lot back with my time and effort, but if Hive went to a dollar tomorrow, it would be 100% obviously a manipulated pump and back at .20 cents within a month, u wouldn’t take some off table? Don’t let anyone make u feel that way! You earned and or bought taking a chance on it. You have every right to sell some and it doesn’t mean u are anti the community or something, that’s silly.
yeah I agree, it's just that I actually am a believer in Hive and its principles. So it hurts potentially selling the majority of my stake soon. Fingers crossed we get $1-$2 again!
Not likely unless chdnges are made.
I also invert effort and time into Hive not for money , my rewards aren’t that great, I love this place. But we have to admit something is very wrong. #DHF #HW #WhalesLetUsDown
Ssss.... not say it here 😆🤫🤫🤫 , We have people up there among the whales, watching in the shadows and waiting for such commanders to be targeted. - I completely agree with your commander, there is something very wrong with the HIVE system, even I have seen over the years how more HIVE is printed every month how projects come and go just to add robots to the system what are printers, but this is done by a very small group of people with their AI and robotized pages that were created here in the first Steem and HIVE years by the hundreds, these pages have not been taken down yet. but they work every day like there is no tomorrow 🤷♂️. But small users are being raped for not using every AI tool properly, just to increase the HIVEpool size so that the robotized pages can get more HIVE from there. They not help HIVE world in long run, and they not help HIVE price .... very sad to see. Some of them even come to Discord rooms to post ideas on how to prevent small users from to unload their HP, which top whales they have never uploaded in large quantities. :))) But the last thing I can say is, HIVE must go to $1, because 95% of the system depends on the price of HIVE, all app systems get their money from price movements and + from selling coins every month, they have no other income than what they get from us. Not going for $1 is a catastrophic end to this HIVE world, app systems don't survive a bear market, it doesn't matter how successful you are, you can't survive without food.
$1.00 by when? There is no chance we go to a dollar this cycle. !PIZZA !LADY !ALIVE
That's a good question, even I always ask myself when it can happen ... very hard to say , but I also know that if we don't do this, this new bear market will be the end of many on this platform, a quiet and peaceful death. I don't even have to prove it, I'm just have to be patient and you'll see it in the long run.
Agree 100%
I think anyone who has been on hive for a bear-bull-bear bull cycle would agree with you.
It is incredibly depressing to miss the short bull market cycle because you are powered up, and the long bear market will be full of could haves, should haves and would does next time.
It's next time now.
And...while all will agree that it's challenging to time the market, I think it's important to pick your exit prices now, and DCA out based on your average cost of Hive...
... and most importantly try to stick to the decision when the number gets hit, no second thoughts about waiting until it goes a little bit higher.
Second guessing yourself is another no no...
Make a Plan, stick to the plan, execute the plan.
Easy to say, hard to do, unless you rehearse those words.
:)