Entering New Territory
So... we are half way through Q4
and the markets have completely demolished any shred of hope for a recovery, not even speaking of a "bull rally". This hasn't happened before - Q4 of Q4 so to speak has always seen the best months. But that is probably exactly the reason why it hasn't worked this time. It was way too predictable. Essentially everyone way waiting to sell the top. But how can that work if every seller needs a buyer?
X still seems quite evenly divided about recent developments with half shouting "the top is in" and the other "the best is yet to come". Perhaps for the first time it really could go in either direction when in hindsight Q4 of Q4 was always the time to sell. Personally, I am equally confused since I perhaps blindly refuse to believe that this was it - 3 years waiting to end up in an even worse position (lol). In a sense, I only got humor left. But then again, it seems outrageous to think that we are just going to have a "normal bear" now. The market has never started the bear with a 90% sell off. At least that is what it feels like for most alts.
In a way I think this could be a great way for the market to present us the only real projects that matter. There is no way that most projects/chains will come out of this should the market sell off another 90%. We already saw quite a few capitulate and go out of business at these levels. The market will test the chains whether they can operate at ultra low token prices or not. It will also test the communities since there might be little to no return.
Going back to utility would be healthy after we got memes and useless NFTs. there are many projects out there that have them. Hive being one of them of course. In fact, we got so many good dapps here that if they can be maintained in these difficult times they will eventually pull a spot light on themselves. Maybe all of this is one big endurance test. Every project that still stands in 1-3 years is a winner?
The main risk for Hive seems to be the debt limit. I am not sure if these numbers already reflect the changes in HF 28, but even at 10 cents, Hive is fairly solid.
Conclusion
It seems to me that crypto is all about living through the impossible scenarios. Never would I have thought we'd sit here in Q4 of Q4. I also didn't think the BTC Corona crash would happen. Maybe we should start learning to plan for the impossible. Because these events seem quite frequent in crypto.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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Crappy run, I think it's over, I talked about HTF bear divs etc in my last post https://ecency.com/hive-167922/@digi-me/codex-vii-bear-trap-done and the last push was maybe the 126k? It aligns with my wavecount from the 75k april bottom and what we saw might have been the 5th wave. Now that the structure is broken and we close weekly under 50w ma just like all other cycles is the next hunt the macro LH, the wave B. Sitting and working on my last Codex post for this cycle unless BTC sets new ATH. Several alts have broken down 1 year descending triangle and H&S, that was probably the distribution 2025. Sad but most likely, next is PEPE the memes to follow SUPER the gamingcoins..
What do you think happens with Alts now? 90%+ sell off?
I think those in the weekly downtrend will continue in it, outliers holding the uptrend might have a little more power left? If BTC will formt the LH in coming months they might give us a run. Just like the previous cycle, SUPER should come all the way down to where the bulls started, also PEPE, they just mirror what it was Inu Shiba or what it was in the previous cycle, a big dead bounce will occur when they hit it at 50-100% and then sell off to new bottoms and accumulate again 2 years before the next run. In that case they just mirror the previous cycle. Only hope now imo is BTC makes a new ATH and the bull can resume..
It will hit the neckline from the ih&s that startet the bull, made its 5 wave, bear divergence at top on wekely timeframe, broken and confirmed neckline in the H&S now in is 1 week of continuation and SUPER is in its 4th.. Fast move up during bull fast move down during bear, big deadcat bounce to retest is expected in the end, just as last cycle its a mirror. Im just sad i diddent get in the B wave, already marked my LH box 🙈
Here is my post, would love to hear your thoughts. 😀
https://ecency.com/hive-167922/@digi-me/codex-viii-another-trick-the
This crypto cycle is completely different this time. Previously, it followed a single pattern but now that old pattern hasnt been followed. Right now the market is in a bearish trend but a bull phase can come at any time. It depends on investors mindset when investors get tired, the bull may come. This market always moves contrary to investor sentiment.
I agree that anything unexpected can happen on the crypto market
!BBH
Agree planning is vital in the current situation of the crypto market