Crypto Analysis | R.I.P. HIVE/BTC?

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

Hive is in a bit of a crisis

The biggest issues are:

• Difficult to access Hive: it's currently very hard and inconvenient to buy (large amounts of) Hive. This is even more so for users living in the USA which is where Hive's largest audience resides. There is also only limited DEX integration and most fiat on ramps require KYC.
  • Solution? Since Hive has no centralized entity, getting CEX listings will prove to be very difficult; luckily we can circumvent this with DEFI dapps and @vsc.network will be a big start when Hive will get wrapped BTC

• No smart contracts: having had no real decentralized SCs on Hive has put the network at a big disadvantage in the crypto space. Luckily, again @vsc.network is intending to provide this crucial infrastructure this year. It will also be interesting to see how Hive will compare with other blockchains that have their SCs mainly on L1.

• Stalled price growth: For over a year Hive has been in the 20 and 30 cent area while the rest of crypto has been soaring. It is clear that larger whales/investors have (temporarily) lost interest in Hive. We haven't seen the big volume associated with price reversals in this cycle and there is no guarantee that it will ever come back. I don't want to sound overly alarmist, but there is a real chance that Hive could never reclaim its ATH, continuing in the 300+ ranks of crypto. The blueprint for that movement could be what Steem did in the last cycle

HIVE/BTC chart looks awful

6 weeks ago there was a glimmer of hope for Hive to reverse its descent. But that hope turned out to be misplaces and worse, it is now looking as if the whole chart is being turned upside down. The breakout to the downside will have consequences for years to come and it is questionable if Hive will ever reclaim its ATH HIVE/BTc ratio. It will only happen if we get a breakthrough in one of the mans dapps we have (3speak, VSC, SPL, V4V etc.)

I have based all of my HIVE/BTC charts on the idea seen in the next image, which unfortunately has now been invalidated. A 3 wave pattern and a falling wedge that would ultimately lead to a reversal pattern and bring us back to the target trend line.

But at least it means that the pattern I spotted seems to have been correct, otherwise we would not have gotten the strong pullback seen after breaking this wedge and the completion of the 3rd wave.

A breakout to the downside in a falling wedge is rarer than a reversal, but here we are. The target trend line will bite the dust, and the only support I see is from the fib ratio 0.236 as well as the horizontal support from 2021 (there is ofc another area below that, but...) Also notice that we haven't had any real volume since mid 2022.

So the new chart looks like this now (red is resistance, blue support):

Ouch... Not great at all. It's almost predetermined that HIVE will continue to fall until reaching the first support lines; if we go down to the lower ones, Hive will essentially give up all the gains it had.

Conclusion

The only silverlining I can give you, is that Hive performed better in 2021 than 2020, the year of the cycle peak. For this cycle we can expect that to be 2025 (so the reversal is still to come...). So we can probably expect more downward/sideways movement for another year. But it also means that even if we get a reversal in 2025, we will likely never reclaim the ATH ratio of the last cycle...

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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