Crypto Analysis | Is Hive Gonna Steem?

avatar

Some provoking thoughts (and why it's probably not like that)

Yes, Alt Season is upon us. I have little doubt that we will keep seeing BTC.D fall and eventually reach around 35-40% in the coming months or in 2026. But so far that drop hasn't really gone to many Alt-Alt coins... ETH has been eating that up and we can already see the couple of green weeks being erased with the latest down turn (lol I am not even getting frustrated anymore - is that a good sign?).

Last week I posted about Hive's structure and how it seemed that we were repeating the 2021-2024 time period again. So far the small "D" in the yellow area is coming along nicely. But that also means that this pattern is getting stronger the longer we stay in this zone. Not very exciting!

@digi-me pointed out:

Oh no your chart reminds me of what we spoke about years ago, repeat Steem fractal 2nd cycle 🙈
My thoughts https://ecency.com/hive-167922/@digi-me/the-final-wave-when-structure

Yeah, so looking at Steem's chart is not very inspiring... And it gets even worse that Hive has been moving in its shadow almost to the point!

What does that mean? But first the chart comparison:

Here is Hive with Steem drawn as the blue line. The main difference is in the 2021-2022 time period. But it's clear that we could shift that first peak and almost get a complete match. While Hive is outperforming Steem by a bit (only around a 7 cents difference atm), prices have been moving along the same pattern since late 2022.

grafik.png

But hold onto your hats - it gets even worse when we look at Steem's chart and overlay Hive. Here Hive is shown in blue. Yelp! It's exactly the same chart (relatively speaking and shifted)!

grafik.png

It's not even close to being debatable: Hive has exactly (again relatively) matched Steem's chart. We can even see the small "D" peak for Steem in 2021 as the "D" peak for Hive in 2025. It's just shifted!

So, obviously this doesn't forebode well, since Steem has not moved since 2021 - flat for 4 years. If that is the future for Hive... we'll be at 20 cents in 2029 :))

Obviously, the two chains are different

It's also not even close. Hive is far superior on a technical and fundamental level. But it seems that this hasn't really translated into price performance. Perhaps whales just don't see a fundamental difference...

Don't get me wrong; I am super excited for Hive's future:

  • VSC
  • LEO (DEX)
  • SPK
  • V4V
  • SPL

the list goes on... But the chart looks awful (not that other Alt-Alts look different).

Conclusion

Although we are in an Alt season, I can't get excited about it. I am pretty sure that fatigue is setting in for many and I am sure this will translate into people rotating out of crypto. Not that crypto is going anywhere since mainstream adoption hasn't even started yet. But I am uncertain about the future for most Alts: Many, I suspect will simply never recover and fade out.

For Hive, at least, I am still optimistic since we are far from a dead chain. Quite the opposite actually. And that is what ultimately matters: do people actually use the chain? For Hive this is a clear yes! So I am certain we are not going to share the same fate as Steem; but perhaps the 20-30 cents area is where it's going to be at for quite some time.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

Bottom.jpg

⛅🌦🌧🌦🌧🌨☁🌩🌦⛅🌧☁🌤🌥🌪🌧🌨🌩⛅🌦☁🌤🌥🌤⛅🌤⛅🌦⛅

lovetheclouds_community_banner.jpg

Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!

⛅🌦🌧🌦🌧🌨☁🌩🌦⛅🌧☁🌤🌥🌪🌧🌨🌩⛅🌦☁🌤🌥🌤⛅🌤⛅🌦⛅

Bottom.jpg

proofofbrain bitcoin trading crypto blog gems hive steem
0
0
0.000
11 comments
avatar

Good analysis! BTC.D drop not benefiting alts... ETH eating it all up is so true! 😅

0
0
0.000
Reply
avatar

Great post! Thanks for the mention sir. And liked you visualize it, dam its fractal repeat I hope not! Im watching for Hive to break above daily 200ma also neckline in a weekly W-bottom 0,27ish, it needs to happend now so we can mirror our previous cycle and get our C-wave to the peak, if not im afraid we do as you say we might be stuck below 0,3 for a while..

0
0
0.000
Reply
avatar

It's a clear analysis. I hope Hive is with us for a long time, and if we can help and attract new users, even better.

!LADY
!PIZZA
!HUESO
!ALIVE
!BBH

0
0
0.000
Reply
avatar
(Edited)

Thanks for sharing your analysis. I think what we are seeing here is the results of usability. As I see it, hive's main use is not speculative. So since there is no big fluctuations there is little market speculative profit, which leads to a more stable price evolution. But that is not necessary a bad thing. That means that the attention and work related to Hive is more focused in the development of the project that in price speculation. So IF ( and I think this is a big if) usability and adoption protects continue and go further we may see a discrete but somewhat steady price increase as a result of necessity increase. This is, people buying hive for use it, not for sell it a few days later. Let's hope that's the case, if so we will be seeing in the medium future. It is certainly my hope.

0
0
0.000
Reply