Crypto Analysis | BTC 30% Correction
And just like that 3 months passed again
Seems like my last post about BTC didn't age too badly, although I admit, I had that meme as a joke. Since then, the market has gone down, so much so, that people are now actually considering that the top was in. ALTs are in shambles, and I completely admit that this has taken me off guard. A bear in a bull year feels like 5 sigma event - and yet, we can't really make such a statement when we are only in March...
BTC is still very much okay
In fact, it's been perfectly on track so far. Back in 2023 I gave this outlook which was completely validated:
We know from past cycles that correction do occur quite often leading up to the peak. Take the 2015-2018 period: BTC saw regularly 40% corrections:
Currently, BTC is sitting at a 30% correction and if I were a BTC holder (yeah I am an ALT guy...) I would be not alarmed at all.
I am gaining confidence that BTC will hit around $300k at the end of this year. There is a really nice trend line coming from the peaks of the 2nd and 3rd cycle that signal that area. As we can see from the 2021 peaks that give us the ~$100k resistance, these trend lines are pretty relevant.
But here is the twist. I think we could see a second peak in mid 2026 (a lower high) that could give us an ALT market peak. In other words, the cycle could still fit in the 4 year window, but slightly shifted into 2026. In 2021 we saw such a double peak as well, although the first one would be in spring this year - so it's essentially shifted by around 5-8 months.
Conclusion
While the house has almost burnt down for ALTs (at least it feels like it), BTC is still in a very good spot. BTC.D is also now again at almost 62% and just shy of the 66%+ target I have called for earlier. This could, perhaps, signal a trend change.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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Well I don't trade in bitcoin but seeing the chart and analysis u are right.
The difference with 30% corrections in the past is that they generally came on an uptrend background. It wasn't the case this time, when we had range at below 100k before the correction. But is can still be a bull year, it just started quite badly, especially for alts.