Are You Shorting Bitcoin Right Now? My Bear Case For a 40K Bitcoin
I hate to be a bear, but, the Weekly candle close on Bitcoin held the SELL signal of the Logical Trading Indicator PRO, which is really not a good thing for a bull market. On this long of a time frame, these signals can be very strong indicators of the direction the market is moving. So I would be taking this seriously and if you are not shorting BTC, you might think about starting. If you are not in the shorting camp, then start thinking about some 40K buy orders, because we are heading in that direction. But of course this isn't financial advice, it's just my bear case for a 40K bitcoin!
The 40K range was the last real range of support for Bitcoin before it took off to 74K back in March/April. In my opinion, we went too high, too fast and we are due for a correction to build more market structure at these levels. You know the old saying, what goes up, must come down.
Moving down the time frames to the daily candle, you see that we have begun a pretty strong down trend with the next big demand order block being in the 40K zone. Unless something massive changes, it's best to stay with the trend until it ends. By the looks of it, this downtrend is not ending soon.
Even the massive gap in the volume profile tells a big tell. There was really no volume at the price ranges between where we are now, and the 40K level. This means very little action at those price levels in the past, meaning there probably isn't many orders hanging around and waiting. If we can't hold our current levels and break down, there is nothing stopping the drop to the next big order block where there will be some big buyers waiting.
And as if you needed any more confirmation, here is the 4 hour candle chart showing the bottom falling out and order blocks at the 40K range. The prediction model on the Logical Trading Indicator PRO is even showing a continuation based on past data and a linear regression calculation.
Could I be wrong? Absolutely! And have been many time, but, it's hard to argue with this kind of chart data screaming for more downside. That is why it's important for you to do your own research on any asset you are trading. Bitcoin just happens to be my main trade, so that is why I am so laser focused on it's price movements. So until the trend, and moral improves, I am a short bear.
Are you on the bearish side too? Or are you a perma-bull and believe that Saylor and Wall Street are going to save your bags? Because if that's the case, I would like to slap you around a bit to wake you up to the truth that this is caused by Wall Street and government sell offs and they are not here to help pump your bags. You just have to ride their wake and scoop up what you can when you can. That's the retail game.
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Many of my cryptocurrency related articles as well as trading articles can also be found on my crypto research site, Coin Logic.
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Disclaimer:
The information in this trade journal is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
That double peak looks not good. Probably, people with big money will wait until a serious price drop (to 43.000?) to start buying again. (Not a trader). Hope it will happen sooner so $HIVE will (fall) and recover sooner.
Hive needs a lot of help, haha.
Yes, this awful lower low, $0.169 :(
Well, be ready to go back to the all time lows of near .11 if we drop again. That .16 needs to hold as support. Hopefully the entire market can start to consolidate, if not, then yeah, it's gonna suck for a bit. But that's the time to buy more. Except, I don't buy crypto anymore, I earn what I have so unless I am trading it, it doesn't matter as much. I just keep posting, lol.
So do you think $HIVE might reach, let's say, 0.5$ as support this year? I mean you can't know for sure... but do you have expectations of that sort?
Like you said, nobody knows for sure. But if I were to just do some analysis on it, I am not optimistic of .50 as support. One of the major problems is lack of user base and incentives to actually BUY Hive versus just earning it. Most of the active users at this time are people who are just trying to earn bits and then selling. They don't care about having stake or governance in the network.
I hope traders will start buying HIVE low to get a profit in several months (but first BTC must seriously grow to make people believe alt season is coming). But... too many coins nowadays, and $HIVE isn't the most popular with zero marketing in the age of marketing, and now it has this ugly lower low below 0.3$. :(
What do you mean? No marketing? We have a really expensive rally car that the DHF pays for, 😂
I mean that sarcastically, haha
😁 DHF pays for this car?? I thought they just enjoy good support for their posts, like, a rally car, cool. 😀
Looks like some people use DHF giving back unclear benefits to the blockchain. Like, the travel map had 50$ daily for the simple map app with travel pins which never tried to become anything bigger. I loved that map but it was way too expensive, honestly. Meanwhile, this money would be enough to hire a marketing agency to do work daily for the Hive blockchain.
It is also possible to create a marketing agency on Hive to pay 50$ a day to Hivers. But how to guarantee it won't become another lazy enterprise for passive income lovers? A rhetorical question.
From what I understand, yes, but I may be wrong on that. I think it's not a very good use of marketing funds myself. There are much better ways we can market the platform. There is a bunch of nonsense getting funded but it's all just a big whale circle jerk. I know some good projects that tried to get funding through proposals get turned down, because they weren't in with the circle of whales. I know because I was one of them when I tried to get some funding for Hivelist back when I started. So I bootstrapped it and every other crypto related project I have done with my own time and money.
Sad. We really need changes on the blockchain.