RE: LeoThread 2026-01-27 20-07

Rate Cut Pause or Rate Cut End: Forward Guidance on 2026 Fed Rate Trajectory

On January 28, ahead of tonight’s Fed rate decision, CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is just 2.8%, while the odds of a pause in rate cuts stand at 97.2%. Markets are now growing concerned whether the Fed will enter a prolonged wait-and-see phase after this “on-hold” pause—and if the pause will quietly shift to the end of rate cuts. Current data also reveals: - 10.2% probability of no further rate cuts for all of 2026 - 28.8% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut this year - 33% odds of a 50-basis-point cumulative cut - 19.8% probability of 75 basis points in total cuts - 6.8% chance of 100 basis points - 1.3% odds of 125 basis points