Hollywood Feeling More Pain
We are witnessing one of the most devastating declines we have ever seen. The events surrounding Hollywood are baffling.
It was about this time the writers and actors were on strike. Not long after that, agreements were reached where people thought the unions got a good deal.
Since that time, the reality of the world hit them. Hollywood is in steep decline. It is not going to slow anytime soon. A few major studios were already swallowed up, with more in the way.
Workers in all aspects of the industry are feeling it.
Here are headlines from the Los Angeles times from the passed couple days:
Reality Television Following The Rest Of The Industry
Many thought there would be a repeat from 15 years ago.
At that time, the strikes caused an uptick in business for reality television shows. Not this time.
But around the time writers walked out again in 2023, something strange happened.
“I thought because of the strikes there might be an uptick in reality TV because most of my jobs haven’t been union,” said Celeste Diamos, a TV editor who has worked on “House Hunters,” “Property Brothers” and “The D’Amelio Show.”
From April through June, reality TV production in the greater Los Angeles area plummeted by 57% compared with the same period last year and 50% compared with the five-year average, according to FilmLA, a nonprofit organization that tracks on-location shoot days and filming permits in the region. (The five-year average excludes three months in 2020 when production shut down because of COVID-19.)
That is quite a hit.
While many will offer up a variety of reasons for it, I believe it is fallout from the fragmentation of entertainment. The industry never adapted to the fact that fragmentation was taking place. Studios kept operating like it was the 1990s, without regard to how things were emerging at the edges.
This is not a local issue either:
“People have asked us ... ‘Are we losing it to Georgia?’ or ‘Are we losing it to New York?’” he added. “Well, they’re all screaming the same thing. They’re all seeing a loss of production. It’s global. It is national, and it is also local.”
There still seems to be a resistance to what is really taking place. The industry is not going to return to "normal". It is changed forever.
At the same time, jobs are going away in a major way. We already see many leaving the industry due to the shutdown.
Which brings up the next major disruption.
The AI Shift
Part of the dispute during the strikes, aside from money, was the threat of artificial intelligence.
Here we saw the believe that unions had won. They got contracts that promised not to use AI costing people their jobs.
Of course, this only applies to what is contracted with. Many of the studios have global operations. Thus, in addition to cancelling projects, the also have shifted development to other areas.
Even within the ranks, there is a deep divide taking place.
The challenge is that, no matter who this unfolds, there are entities outside which are not going to be affected. Their interest is from the start. They are new relatively new entrants in the game.
However, this is not the major threat.
What is the Hollywood killer is the move from many to one. Presently. video is consumed by many. This is true for YouTube, a Hollywood feature film, or a television program. It is the realm that Hollywood dominated for many decades, both with film and television.
That is not the future.
Generative AI has a different idea. Prompting and the idea of video creation is going to provide the ability for individualized content.
This means that some video can be individualized. In other words, one can generate a film for the family based upon a simple storyline that is input, with a full film as the output.
Of course, this is likely a few years away but that is the direction things are heading. It is possible to do it with text and images. Audio is already possible in short clips. Video is a bit more cumbersome but it will get there.
None of this bodes well for major studios.
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I think a big part of the decline, is because there are a lot of options available to viewers. Back when there was only American Idol or Survivor, they were the biggest thing. But now, there are different singing shows like the Voice, X Factor, and America's Got Talent. There are also different types of survivor shows to choose from. The growth of YT and the customization of content means shows that are for general audience are losing out.
Maybe. But a more likely factor, in my view, is the technological disruptions, i.e. the Internet and AI, are starting to really have an impact. This means that we are only going to see things get worse as the tentacles spread even further.
Disruption does not ebb at any point once it starts on an industry.
Honestly; I'm a little bit confused on some key points, I get the media fragmentation but have a little rough time understanding the movie creation process.
Hollywood create movies, same goes for normal content creates but the list of actors and themes are quite limited for individual content creators, I don't see how AI upsets that and put Hollywood out for good, I do get it will reduce their earnings but it will compensate them by reducing cost of production.
What about the issue of copyright, not everyone will be allowed to use certain items which are essentials for movie, cost must be involved, AI doesn't upset that, Hollywood and other movie studios will still be needed to handle this, I believe their activities is being revolutionarised but it's somewhat still needed.
I'm I wrong, I need more light ?
What do you watch during the day that doesnt have Hollywood actors in it? Are there Youtube videos that is different.
For example, what about animation films. Have you seen the first iteration of what is taking place with AI? Why is that only now relegated to the Hollywood studios? There are companies popping up all over the place that are starting to make them. That will pull even more revenues.
There was a time when newspapers dominated the print media. Now, where are they? How often do you get news from elsewhere? I would say most of the time.
The same disruption process exists, it just took longer for video. It is a more difficult medium.
I think Hollywood will lose a lot of its market such as the animation films, but will maintain actual humanlike movies.
Why do you think they will maintain that? Arent we seeing films arising from other areas?
And how are these studios going to survive? Did you see the write down that Warner Bros took? $11B.
Yes, I just read it and it was associated to the loss of NBA streaming rights to amazon and advertising as a whole, in my opinion I believe Hollywood will be valued for the following reasons after losing a huge market capitalization;
I really do hope you get my point.
I get it but I disagree. My view is you do not grasp technological trends. The write down was because their media properties are becoming worthless. Right now it is centered in television. If TV networks can go that way, why think production of films will now follow a similar pattern.
And you do realize the future of video is not one to many (meaning one video for many). Much of it will be one to one.
Honestly this concept your sharing is new to me, I will look more into it, to fully understand.
Disney is forced to bring old actors to it's marvel franchise in dr doom and this year disney has not been sending the usual "The message" in its movies hence its movies have made over 3 billion dollars thanks to inside out 2, deadpool & wolverine and new planet of apes but still like your piece suggests hollywood is really struggling as a whole.
It isnt just my view. The streaming from Hollywood studios are all struggling, most losing huges amount of money. Jobs are being decimated. AI is starting to be used. YouTube is the largest streamer. Cable news is dying.
The film and television industry, as we know it, is being obliterated. This is what disruption does.
We really need to make a shift and I think the shift is already happening in the movie industry actually
It started long ago, it just wasnt noticeable. With video, the disruption is slower since it is a harder media type to deal with. Technology is such that it is now catching up.
You are absolutely right on this one. Well let's hope for a positive change
Just because people are finally realizing that 'reality' TV is crap doesn't necessarily mean that Hollywood is dying.
That itself doesnt but there is a huge trend. I have been covering this for the last couple years.
Movie and television studios are in trouble. Two have been bought out. Jobs are going away.
Hollywood is dying and it is due to technology.
Maybe it's just the word 'dying' that I disagree with, which implies that at some point, there will be no Hollywood. Even if it 'dies', it's likely to come back as a zombie franchise.
What do you think of Sears? That is basically dead yet was once the epicenter for commerce in the US.
What about video rental? That is no longer here.
I see Sears as a good example of a zombie that won't die. I live in the boonies, we still have video rental through Redbox.
Well Redbox did just file for bankruptcy so it might be coming to an end.
Hope Netflix or Tubi works out there.
Yep, sounds like the hillbillies in the shacks will be getting streaming services now!
I am sure they already had it. The homeless here had Netflix on their phones a decade ago.
They probably have internet, but not the streaming subscriptions yet. Swear to god, we still had VHS rental here just 5 years ago. Some of the rural gas stations might still!
Well some resist change.
Speaking of which, it's about time for the locals to start hanging their Confederate Flags again.
LOL well we are going to see some rough times ahead. My guess is that, no matter who wins in November, the other side will not accept it. Historically, when the confidence in government collapses, war is the result.
The US could really face something it hasnt seen in a long time.