Are We About To Enter Crypto Summer?

People are constantly trying to size up where we are. This is done by looking at technological trends, market cycles, liquidity moves, and even astrology.

The world of cryptocurrency is no different. Since we are dealing with a heavy focus upon markets, people are wondering when "price go up".

It is common to reference different cycles based upon the seasons of the year. We know Winter is cold and dreary. It is a dead time. Spring is when things start to sprout, there are some signs of life. Summer is the take off period while Fall is the reverse of Spring.

So where are we in the crypto cycle and what could stimulate an explosion?


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Forces Aligning

There is no doubt that Winter ended. We are far from the last of the last bear market. The price of Bitcoin moves up in a powerful way before suffering a significant pullback. This is not uncommon.

At this point, we have a number of forces that could align.

The first is the fact we are in election season. Many are in the process with the big one, the US race, coming up in November. Why is this important?

Quite simply, it becomes giveaway season.

The modern politician is nothing more than Santa Claus, regardless of party. Campaigns are promises of who can give away the most. Handouts are the currency that is used, producing ever increasing deficits. This is true regardless of which party takes control.

We are also coinciding with the wavering of central banks. A few have already started to cut rates. The Fed is now on the clock with many trying to project when they will join[the party.

This has an impact upon liquidity, even if it is perceived. Many economists will claim that it is an increase in liquidity for the general economy which is untrue. Central bank can only directly affect the money supply via the printing of banknotes. That is the only legal tender it deals in.

However, as with most things from the Fed, it is a propaganda organization. When it states something, the market can pick up the ball and run with it. Hence, the result can be more liquidity as market participants jump in, often trying to front run the central bank.

Another piece is we are seeing some signs of economic growth. This is not widespread and it certainly isn't powerful. If that were the case, there would be no move by the central banks.

Instead, they are seeing some optimism amidst the weakness. Unfortunately, like real estate, it is a varied picture. Some are starting to see improvement while others are heading for more trouble.

The result of this is some have earning enhanced. This helps the markets especially if it is from some of the larger players. Amazon and Apple hitting it out of the park grabs headlines. Time Warner having a poor quarter barely gets noticed.

The Game

We have to realize there is a game being played.

Underlying all of this is the business cycle. While many deny that it still operates, it is easy to see where it has impacts. There are times of expansion along with ones of contraction. For much of the world, we have seen contraction in many areas.

There is a currency issue being played. The Chinese and Japanese both see their currencies being destroyed against the dollar. Japan went over 160 on the yen. This is a problem. It is also where we see a lot of intervention.

Globally, there is a dollar shortage. But China and Japan need dollars. So how do they get them?

This is where the game starts to emerge. A lot of coordination is going to occur to stimulate things by moving the currencies that foster more growth. This means bring the yen and yuan down. Yellen is out there making the rounds for a reason.

Notice how none of this has to do with "fundamentals". Markets, for the most part, could care less. With crypto, the number of wallets, applications, nor number of users is of no consequence.

Certainly, the media will point to the issuance of the Ethereum ETF. Or they will point to the development of something it deems spectacular. It might be Trump or some other politician talking about it.

Whatever their reasoning, it is a sideshow. The real action is what is taking place globally. Predictably, central banks are going to really push to move things in a higher direction. This will benefit crypto since it is going to be a coordinated effort.

A lot of what we are dealing with boils down to confidence and what people think. If enough people believe the central banks are providing liquidity and it somehow gets into their wallet, they will act accordingly.

Of course, crypto is volatile and this is going to be enhanced during the election cycle. There will be a lot of movement based upon what the candidates say or do, much of it noise. After the election, regardless of who wins, if the other factors are in play, things will take off.

My Forecast

The way things are aligning, I forecast for a major crypto run from the end of 2024 period into 2026. This will be a bull run that will set all time highs in many crypto related categories.

We might be seeing some signs in the next month or so (Ethereum ETF going live?) that helps to feed into this. The narrative from the Fed already changed, with more neutral stance. When does that move to dovish?

Then we have Trump. He is out there seeking to become the "Crypto President". It is ironic how this became a campaign issue. Will the majority of the Democrats, including Biden, take a softer stance? If that happens, we will have some talking points that could be optimistic about it.

This is ultimately what drives market. Nobody cares about the number of wallets or steady growth. For things to boom, it takes macro forces aligning with the actions of the major players in the world. That seems to be happening.

It is also a way that crypto can benefit.


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14 comments
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Not sure we about to enter a crypto summer.
With the manner in which bitcoin is moving hell no😂

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Wow what a level to analyze the course of cryptocurrencies is somewhat impressive but you are forgetting the human factor and the unpredictability of the economic environment you never know.
A new war, a sudden collapse of an economic area leading to a lot of panic or a massive hack and my favorite a court system attack on some enter or director related to cryptocurrencies that shakes the market.
I still think your projection has a high probability as long as something unforeseen doesn't happen.
Good analysis 👍

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I think we see a drop back to around 40K before we do lift off. With all the ETF hype earlier in the year, we went too high too fast, at least the Bitcoin price because that is what I watch and trade.

With the boom of the retarded memecoins earlier in the year also showed that many retail traders that are coming in do not care at all about fundamentals. People only care about their fiat number go up, and not the fact that their fiat supply is going up and up and up as well. We need to get back to more of a fundamental focus in the space, but that will take shaking out some idiots.

If you look back at 2019, we went from like 3K to 15K pretty fast, then back down soon after to around 6K before we launched up and over the previous 19K-20K ATH. This cycle is playing out somewhat similar as far as percentage movements, but now with Wall Street basically in control over the price action, there's no telling. My thoughts are they want some more of that $40K price action if they missed out, so they are shorting futures to lower the price to where they want to buy either on-chain or ETF shares at a discount. Just my dudely opinion.

Who knows what is going to happen, I just want people to be ready for anything with this insane geopolitical landscape, or more like hellscape. I am stocking up on 3d printer plastic to make things I need, seeds, bullets and things to launch bullets from, haha. Tools, solar panels, batteries, etc. Crypto is great and all, but can be incredibly disrupted if the ISPs are ordered to shut down. But again, just a dude living in the woods talking shit on the internet, lol.

But I digress... I think this cycle is going to run differently than others now that Bitcoin and soon Ethereum with ETFs are giving the big boys a big way to manipulate the markets. They have WAY more patience than most people in the crypto space, so they are okay letting the smaller guy freak out and capitulate before they let the price lift.

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I forecast for a major crypto run from the end of 2024 period into 2026.

I wish your forecast comes true!

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I believe your forecast for a major run aligns well with current global economic uncertainties brother. Let's hope it plays out as anticipated. !HUG

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@theringmaster, sorry!

You are out of hugs for today.

You can call the HUG bot a maximum of 3 per day.

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I forecast for a major crypto run from the end of 2024 period into 2026.

Interesting. I just saw a chart that says almost exactly the same thing.

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I don't know about Crypto Summer, but this has been a wonderful White Boy Summer so far.

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Hello Sir! Long time no comment a post of you.

I'm agree with you in some speculation thoughts.

I think we will have a minimum bull run this end on 2024. But the international situation in politics to be specific is really tourble.

Well, thanks for sharing your ideas. I'll take in count.

Greetings.

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The price of Bitcoin moves up in a powerful way before suffering a significant pullback. This is not uncommon.

As the market cap grows the pullbacks are to be likely less significant in my opinion.

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Getting positioned is the most important thing at this point. Those who have the money are buying. For me, its safer to earn through my social activities on Hive.

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Wow, I've seen a good amount of posts and articles also point to 2025 as the start of the bull run. You mentioned a lot of things to support your forecast. I hope it comes true, and we get a bullrun where a lot of altcoins also go up.

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I forecast for a major crypto run from the end of 2024 period into 2026., this has also been my views too friend. I don't think bitcoin most especially will rally again this year. Instead, there will be slow but strong step to regain stamina. The blossoming awaits the coming year.

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Totally here for it. Every time BTC hits a new all time high, I've bene holding all along, taking little profits to build new bags all along the way. Getting out at 70 and back in at 58 is not bad at all. Might even go lower with the Gox selling still to come but the market is running out of sinks.

Now it is all about choosing the projects with your capital, time, and attention that will deserve to go to the next level. I'm here with you on Hive. Let's Go!

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