AI is changing everything.

This is a statement I could start every article with. It is the central theme of a large portion of the writing I do. We are entering a period where we will see societal change like never before.

Most of this is due to the accelerating nature of AI. Because of my view that AI and crypto are intertwined, the latter will follow a similar curve.

The best summary of this is the Exponential Age. Things are moving rapidly, far outpacing the progress of the past.

One of the fundamental pieces is computing. We are 4 decades into the microprocessor era so this is nothing new. That said, we are seeing a radical difference.

In this article we will dive into how we, humans, are ill-prepared for keeping up in an accelerating age.

AI And Crypto: Keeping Up In An Exponential Age

One of the biggest takeaways that I hope to convey is that what you know is pretty much useless. So many are holding onto old ideologies and concepts that are outdated. The entry into digitization changed everything, something that went unnoticed by many. However, the next phase is simply to rapid to overlook.

Therefore, we have to try and fill our minds with theories and ideas that are applicable. Harkening back to the 1920s and some theorem from that period yields nothing.

To repeat, Ai is changing everything.

One such theory is Martec's Law. Grok explains it is as follows:

Martec's Law states that technology changes exponentially, but organizations change logarithmically. This means technological advancements outpace an organization's ability to adapt, creating a growing gap between what's possible and what organizations can implement. It highlights the challenge of aligning rapid tech progress with slower institutional processes, culture, and structures.

To get a better understanding, we can use a visual.

Source

The "Technological Change" curve is an exponential. The gap that is formed is the net between the new acceleration pace and the constant of "Organizational Change".

We have to take a closer look at the latter. Under this category is not just companies or businesses. It equally applies to individuals as well as society in general.

Accelerating Change

Earlier I mentioned that compute was at the core of this. Here is where exponential curves get wild.

Moore's Law is actually an exponential. This covers the observation that number of transistors on a semiconductor double every 24 months. That means we will have 32 doubles over the course of a decade.

This is probably the single reason for the advancement in society over the last 40 years. We are now in the computer age, with mobility being a large factor. None of this would be possible with 1985 semiconductors.

The challenge is that humans have a tough time conceptualizing this. Moore's Law has run for more than 60 years. That means the next step is simply mind blowing.

AI compute is doubling an estimated 5.7 months months. For mathematical simplicity, we will round off to 6 months. That provides us with two doublings per year.

Remember how we showed that Moore's Law results in 32 doublings over a decade? With AI going at a 6 month clip, that is 1,024 doublings over the same period.

To illustrate, think of this as a return. If you invested $1,000 in an account, if it doubled every two years, you would have $32,000 after a decade. Using the AI rate, that would be $1,024,000.

Do you see the difference?

Removing Mental Limitations

When it comes to money, I firmly think the future is crypto. It is the only form of currency that can keep pace.

We long exited the world where money was physical. The number of transactions, globally, that are done in cash, is minimal. Most take the form of digital transactions. This means the monetary system is accounting on digital networks. It is true whether we are focusing upon crypto or legal tender issued by the commercial banking system.

This means the underlying component (the digital network) is crucial. This is something that is advancing and expanding at a pace described in this article. Every layer of the stack is being affected. Obviously, there is not a 1:1 correlation. We are not seeing the capabilities of telecommunication systems doubling every 6 months. However, we cannot deny there is an impact, as we are starting to see in most industries.

It is often said humans think on a linear scale. The result is the second line in the image above. Since AI is operating on an exponential, crypto will ultimately follow suit. Transaction volume will explode over time. Once we enter the agentic age, the situation will become clearer. Right now, progress there is in how, developing "helpers" for humans.

When we reach the state where agent-to-agent interaction is the norm, the speed and quantity of money required will grow. Networks are enabling faster transactions yet there is still utility. If only one payment is required per month (or day) for the service, that is all that is required. The money will not leave the wallet at any greater pace.

More agents obviously increase the need. That might still be a couple years out as agent-to-human (or vice versa) is the construct.

The starting point is to stop thinking in a linear fashion. Companies that are operating like it is 2015 are done. They will be swallowed up in the next decade. The same is true for individuals.

We are seeing the massive shift to exponential. The unfortunately reality is few people understand what this means. Keep this in mind when reading some article or seeing something from the media that goes to the contrary.

Posted Using INLEO