On Borrowed Time
There is always uncertainty, because change is the only constant and we aren't very good at predicting, or dealing with change. Of course with practice we can improve, but getting better at something doesn't necessarily mean that it becomes easier, but it can be accepted. Over the last few weeks, there has been a lot going on.
Like much of the world, Finland is going through economic changes and as a result, a lot of the companies are adjusting for the conditions, with increasing layoffs and furloughs, as they look to save money. However, these changes aren't always about saving money directly, it can also be about structural change to shift an organization to better meet market conditions.
And often, these events align with a struggling economy, because essentially, need is the mother of invention and in hard times, a lot of companies will pivot. This means that an organization look to change direction, but find that they don't have the right people in place to make the changes or support them once made. So, they have to either internally shift people to new roles, or get rid of unsuitable people and fill new positions.
The challenge with internal transfers is that if it is for an all-new position, there might not be the in-house skillset required, so even if they want to shift people, they can't. Then, it is possible that the people who are in defunct roles don't necessarily have the skillset to move anywhere else internally, so they find themselves without a role at all and will be removed from the organization. In many cases, it isn't a direct statement on whether the person is good or bad at their job, just that due to the changes in the direction, they don't have a seat.
I sound impersonal.
It is very personal. It always is for those affected by changes in the organization where they lose their job, and for those affected that keep their job. While a corporation doesn't care since it is soulless, the people making the decisions, and those who are forced into conditions they didn't choose, do feel it. But, the fact of the matter is that if there is no need for a job to be done, there is no point paying for someone to do nothing.
Just think about taking your car that runs perfectly and has no issues at all, to the garage. And then paying the mechanic to stand there next to it, doing nothing, just so that you can keep them employed. Would you pay?
But, business can be hard, so decisions are made that don't always work, or something that was going well, suddenly changes because the market conditions have somehow shifted, or a new technology has been introduced. People can find themselves no longer able to add value, and when that happens, they don't last long - at least in private business.
Over the last few weeks, the company I work for, along with hundreds of other companies, have been going through labor negotiations globally, getting rid of some people who were underperforming, some who were no longer required, and shifting as many as they could into changed roles. It has been a hard time for many people, especially those who have reason to be worried for their position.
Today I found out that I am currently safe, as is my team, because we are a high-performing unit that delivers value. But again, this isn't about money. The reason that the team is safe is that we enable people to be better at what they do and help facilitate change through the organization. Change has been a constant in the technology sector and becoming comfortable with it is necessary to be there long term. However, not everyone is comfortable, so even if they do their job well, they can't cope with the constant disruption.
We all want stability.
But we are never truly going to have it in our lifetime. This means that whenever we feel safe, we are running on borrowed time, because it won't be long until the conditions change again, and that feeling rapidly evaporates and we are disrupted once more. Nothing is stable, even when we think it is. And even though I had a rational sense that I was going to be okay and keep my position, especially considering the cuts weren't that severe, there was still that emotional side saying, "bad things happen to you".
It speaks from experience.
Putting the emotional pain aside, I think that these cuts at all the companies are a good sign for the economy in about a year from now. In general, many of the companies that are making the cuts aren't in overly dire financial positions, which means that that they are setting themselves up for what is to come in the marketplace. If you look back at the GFC in 2008, it was soon followed by the longest bull markets in history. The previous longest was in the 1990s, which came after another difficult period of high inflation and interest rates.
As I said, there are alignment factors in play.
Right now seems to be the time that businesses are setting themselves up for that run on the markets and it will be no surprise if through the back half of 2024, there are going to be quite a few IPOs happening, as well as VC investment opportunities. I think a lot of 2024 is going to be dominated by an expansion of the AI-powered business models, and support networks. It is going to be a bit like the dotcom boom in the mid to late 90s.
Are you ready?
I am not. I am still in the frame of mind that I am glad to have a job I can add value to still. A lot of people might find in the not too distant future that this isn't the case, as a generative AI does 50% of their role, meaning that 2 seats, becomes one seat, like a game of musical chairs, at a mass scale across industries and the world. Like it or not though,
We are all on borrowed time.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Becoming unemployed can be a dilemma, and at this time of year it must be worse. In my country, there was a time when many companies closed and people became unemployed. Some people took benefits and reinvented their lives, others looked for jobs elsewhere, but also a large group committed suicide. They had to patrol some viaducts where people were throwing themselves off. While it is true that if a company goes through a rough patch and has to do without some personnel, there must be a way not to leave people on the street, especially if you have dedicated a good time of your life to the company. Well, that's my humble opinion. Regards
Quite common these days it seems. I guess when there seems to be no way to live, it might be better not to.
Companies are companies, they have one goal in mind, profits. The problem is, we let them make profits at any cost, not just in the way they treat employees, but how they make money at all.
I kind of feel like I am lucky enough that I am close to retirement. Hopefully this way I can hold on just as long as I need to before my job were to come into question.
I think you are lucky too - other than being so old. ;D
Yeah, yeah, I'm really not that old though. I mean being able to retire at 50 is something a lot of people dream of.
I had a colleague flatter me the other day - she’s a skilled technical person in her role but she’s tired of what she’s doing and she asked me for advice for her next step. I was taken back by it for sure. I really appreciated that she asked me of all people, even people she’s worked with for a long time. I think she’s in the right mindset to see where she can grow and make changes in her life so that she can adapt to the coming changes. I certainly hope to be adapting as well though that’s a little harder to nail down being busy. I’ve started dipping me toes into using the AI I have access to and it’s been an interesting road for sure.
I do know that it will be important to figure out who the good players are going to be from an investment standpoint in the coming changes. It would be nice to find the next amazon type company and ride that wave a bit.
being able (and willing) to move is important. I am glad that this employer has a pretty good attitude toward this and encourages internal shifts and career growth. Sometimes though, it isn't going to be enough to cover the changing dynamics of the industry.
It is probably out there now, waiting to be discovered.
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I have never been unemployed for almost 50 years (1968-2018). OK, maybe only 47 years as from 1958 to 1971 I was still in school (Naval Academy). But I was paid.
At one point, in 1992, I was told that I should look for another job outside the company. The owner of the company I was working for wanted to sell it, and the buyer made it a condition that they should get rid of a number of engineers. But I had good support from powerful people in the company, and after three weeks, they told me that I was OK to continue to work for the company (a software house).
That is when I started to think of emigrating to North America, which I did in 1994, with my 4 children. I had already a job here in British Columbia.
I fully retired at the end of 2018. I was 69 years old.
My dad was the same - a qualified teacher by the age of 16 in Malaysia, taught his last art class (volunteer class) at 81 - because he had a stroke whilst teaching it!
This is one of the massive problems people don't seem to get with the working from home culture. Sure it is more convenient, but it is far harder to build the relationships that matter in the workplace.
I have been working in some way since I was 12, but there was a period from around 18-19 where I was working on and off due to health issues, but was also at university. I don't like the prospect of not being able to work, which is why it scares me to lose a job in Finland, as they are harder to come by for me here. This is why I started my own business a decade ago, otherwise I would never be able to do what I am capable to do. It also led me to have other options, so now I have two jobs :)
Do you miss it?
No, Not at all.
It's a tough economy and I do think that AI will definitely change things over time. A lot of people will lose their jobs as the companies replaces them with AI or software. At some point, I think we think we can do except adapt. I just wonder how things will move in regards to the government as less people get employed.
I think people see some aspect of their job that AI can't do, and think they are safe. But, they will consolidate jobs, so two becomes one, and ten becomes one eventually.
Government are already struggling with lack of tax. They have done it to themselves. What we need to do though, is get rid of a lot of the government :)
From what i have been reading about the economy and the market there is going to be wide spread job losses across Europe. I thought the mass culling would have already happened, but it seems like it will be now for many. Companies have changed over the last 3 or 4 years and it is noticeable as an outsider.
It is likely that in the next 6 month, there will be a lot of cuts I think. I am glad ours are happening now, because there is still a chance to get another job for most of these people. They are skilled.
Ever since I joined my first job at a big corporation many years ago, I started an emotional relationship with the layoff of older workers who were "not needed" anymore and always have thought it is one of the worst managed issues big companies do. It always impacted me to see someone who had been working many years at the same company being told they had to leave in their late 50s when it was clear they would have a very hard time trying to find a new job. Companies and those responsible for making the decision just evaluate financial aspects, forgetting about personal, and many times knowledge aspects the workers have and can use wisely somewhere else.
We see HHRR departments spending lots of money on off-site events to create a team culture. Training programs to keep workers up to date, evaluation programs to make sure every issue is scaled for managers and workers to do better their jobs, but when dealing with someone "not-needed" anymore, they are unable to evaluate all the assets that worker has, find other roles they could create and work with that worker to get the most out of the situation in benefit of the company and of course the employee.
I understand there may be situations where this is very difficult and even impossible, but when I think about big corps with lots of resources, dealing with a small group of employees, it has no sense at all to throw away all that expertise and send a person to an emotional and sometimes economical critical situation.
I agree. This isn't that at this place though - it isn't age or even skill, it is more that the direction of the company has changed. I was looking at the support for those who will leave and it is very good!
This is a big problem in many organizations, especially those which don't build career paths. Again, this place has been better with this (I have seen some horror companies), as they tend to encourage internal transfers where possible and job growth. People shift from team to team often here, building out their knowledge of the industry and organization. The average tenure is very long, especially for an IT company. This isn't a big corp though, most people know most people.
I like your approach here. Jobs and working place are a matter of productivity but also how harmonious they are into the rest of the company.
Here in Italy I am proposing Yoga practices during working time as it's proven to be a great catalyst of productivity but also relieving stress and reducing conflicts
In the summer we have a yoga in the park session each week. It is nice!
I think we should be ready for such changes in the future as AI will replace some work fields. It will be like shooting on foot for humanity.
We kill ourselves in the desire for convenience.
Company reshuffling and layoffs are always painful. I was part of two such events in my job history. In the first one, we were just laid off, and given severance pays. Our jobs were being offloaded to India. The second one, we were laid off, but immediately absorbed by the company that would handle our work. My biggest advice is always make and keep your 'receipts'. By receipts, I meant a list of work that you do, and accomplishment you have. You always want to be indispensable to the company. Not only can this be used in that scenario, it can be useful when looking for a promotion. If it looks like your work is becoming redundant or can be replaced by AI, it would be ideal to get ahead of that by getting training, starting projects, or transferring to a more stable department.
Everything needs a paper trail. I try to ensure that the work I do has visible tangibles that if checked, will show that not only have I been doing my work, but I have been value-adding to what I do throughout the organization. The other benefit of this is, work is more enjoyable :)
It is really crazy and things will be very hard for anyone who is not performing well in a workplace. The same thing happens here too and we have to be up and doing.
I guess this is not only happening I’m Finland but other countries too
The world economy generally is not very good at the moment
There is one advantage though, always be around people who are technically slow and those people will always exist. We are the link between AI and the people of that type. I used to be afraid of AI too. Now I make AI tutorials and gamedev to explain the AI to such people and it is genuinely giving some returns.
Will it last for a life career?
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