Limited Downside, Near Unlimited Upside
At this point in time, my trading experience mostly revolves around observing chart interpretations of those actually making trades in this unforgiving yet still opportunity-rich market.
Part of me can't fully stomach the reality that all traders lose money, it's among the cost of entry into this game and the race to the top, as in having wins relatively outweigh losses takes a different set of thinking as opposed to the race to the bottom, where going with your emotions is a surefire way into account extinction.
Sometimes, when I consume such type of trading content, I always have this impression of basically trying to make a decision (entry/exit) from unfolding and conflicting information.
Of course, traders mentioned that they're looking for a confluence of factors, and some such as price action and volume are held in higher regard than others such as social media sentiment.
When macro is bullish, there's a bearish factor lurking somewhere on a lower time frame, that may or may not come to pass, depending on other factors that are way beyond one's control.
And vice versa, bearish macro tends to create relief rallies that can last longer than fundamentals suggest, which always traps those who assume correlation always holds.
It kind of goes back to the idea that the market operates on a different kind of logic. Being right about direction means nothing if your timing is off and obvious trades often fail precisely because they're obvious.
But there's logic nonetheless as in the background it's all basically just collective human behavior creating patterns within the chaos of existence.
Uncapped Upside, Seemingly
As a skill, I think trading sits somewhere at the top between having a high cost of entry and offering potentially transformative returns on that investment, not just financially.
I don't think it's a necessary skill to have but definitely it's an important tool to add onto one's toolbox.
Beyond that, especially when it comes to the training part, true understanding will only come through direct exposure to the emotional weight of having money at risk.
The market will become my most-expensive-teacher that charges tuition via drawdowns and then offering lessons in probability, psychology, and humility that no textbook can provide.
Learning to trade badly can cost you a defined amount, i.e whatever capital you're willing to risk during your education phase.
Committing to learning to trade well could open doors to financial independence, deeper market understanding(not just finance), and decision-making skills that compound across all areas of life.
From that context, there's a somewhat limited downside and a near unlimited upside in terms of risk/reward ratio of learning to trade.
Put in a slightly different way, one could just sum it up as learning to trade is learning to think probabilistically about an unpredictable world, which is arguably a very valuable meta-skill to have in our increasingly volatile era.
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