Week Ahead

WEEK AHEAD – April 7 to 11
Global tension + key macro data = high volatility in FX , Bond markets And Crypto.

Here’s what to watch out for

USA – Pressure on consumers, interest rates & the dollar

• Trump’s tariffs = shockwaves in equities, yields, and USD
• Michigan Sentiment (Friday): expected to drop sharply
• CPI / PPI (Thursday–Friday): critical for the pace of rate cuts
• Fed Minutes (Wednesday): what’s the real intent for a June cut?
• Money Markets: already pricing in -111bps by end of 2025 (!)
  

The market expects aggressive cuts, but if inflation data comes in hot, the Fed may hold back.

Eurozone – Light calendar, but...

• Watching for potential retaliation on tariffs
• German production data & CPI coming up
• The euro is indirectly affected by the U.S. and risks in global trade cycles.
  

UK – Light at the end of the tunnel?

• GDP & Industrial Production (Friday): may show slight recovery
• Boost from government spending, but external risks remain

GBP could find support if data surprises on the upside.

China – Signs of deflation & response to tariffs

• CPI / PPI (Thursday): key signals for domestic demand pressure
• Possible support measures from the PBOC

Any stimulus or intervention could bring flows into CNY and Asian risk assets.

Asia – Central banks in the spotlight

• New Zealand (Wednesday): expected cut of -25bps
• Australia (Thursday): RBA Governor speech – potential dovish shift
• Japan: comments from Ueda (BOJ) on wages and next rate hike

NZD, AUD, and JPY are vulnerable to any shifts in rate expectations.

Markets are expecting rate cuts, but if inflation stays high, the Fed might not act as quickly as anticipated. Global trade is tightening, risks are rising, and this week could reveal whether we're heading into calm waters… or fresh turbulence. The world is at a place that we haven't seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

Posted Using INLEO