Reciprocal Tariffs Or A Declaration Of War?

In a shocking 48-hour period, Donald Trump announced a universal 10% base tariff on all imports starting April 5, while special reciprocal tariffs are being imposed on 60 countries based on what they charge the U.S. For example:

China: 54%
EU: 20%
Japan: 24%
Vietnam: 46%
India: 26%
Cambodia: 49%
Switzerland: 31%

Markets in Decline

Stocks initially rallied, hoping for a lighter implementation, but collapsed later in the day as the full severity of the package became clear. The S&P 500 ETF fell 2.5% after market close. Companies with production in Asia were hit hardest:

Apple -5.6% (Production in China, India, Vietnam)
Nike -6.4%,
Lululemon -9.6%,
Abercrombie -7.7%,
Gap -11%

Bonds & Currencies

10-year Treasury yields pushed higher (4.21%)

U.S. dollar fell (-0.2%)

Increased long positions in Treasuries as the market expects the Fed to cut rates to avoid recession

Gold & Bitcoin
Gold: New rally to $3,124/oz (+0.4%)

Bitcoin: +1.8% to ~$86,800, After the announcement it fell by 5.1%

Production Impact

The shift from China to Vietnam now seems pointless: Vietnam—a major supplier for Nike, Adidas, Lululemon—got hit with one of the highest tariffs (46%). Giants like Fast Retailing (Uniqlo) and H&M are also exposed.

Consumers & Inflation

Trump promised tax breaks on car loans for U.S.-made vehicles and pledged not to touch Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. However, the cost of food, fuel, and basic goods is already rising.

Congress & Taxes

The Senate is fast-tracking a $5.5 trillion tax cut package, paired with a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase. Republicans are making no effort to maintain fiscal balance. The package may pass next week.

Private Investment – or Not?

Since his re-election, Trump has “announced”:

$1.6 trillion in investments

426,000 jobs

But:

Many projects were already announced under Biden

The Softbank-OpenAI-Oracle “Stargate” deal claims $500 billion, but its Texas hub will create just 57 permanent jobs

Most job figures include construction workers, drivers, and electricians—not high-tech roles

Election Strategy

Most investment pledges focus on swing states like Texas, Ohio, and Arizona, aiming to push the “Trump brings jobs and factories” narrative.

Uncertainty Everywhere

Markets are in denial mode with low retail volume, high volatility, and bull traps. All developments now hinge on the tariff package’s impact, rather than traditional economic fundamentals.

The “America First” strategy is triggering tariffs that may fuel inflation, cause a recession, and force the Fed into rate cuts. Meanwhile, Trump is pushing historic tax giveaways while promoting investment promises—many of which aren’t real.

The coming weeks will be crucial for markets—and the political future of the U.S.

Posted Using INLEO