Nvidia To Sell The H200 To China

NVIDIA & TRUMP

So, Nvidia has once again received the green light to sell its powerful H200 processors to China. Yes, you heard that right. Donald Trump himself announced on Truth Social that he approves the sale of the H200 to “approved customers” in China, on the condition that the United States receives 25% of the revenue from these sales.

Jensen Huang publicly thanked Trump, saying that this decision supports the American chip industry and creates well-paid jobs in the United States. At first glance, it looks like a positive development that gives Nvidia access once again to one of the world’s largest markets.

So far, so good. It looks like a win-win. A success story that seems to settle everything.

IS IT NOW TOO LATE?

But… yesterday, Nvidia’s stock slipped. And many analysts say this could reveal a deeper market concern: “What if it’s already too late? What if China no longer wants the H200?”

Why do they say that?

According to sources quoted by the Financial Times, China is seriously considering limiting access of local companies to the H200, even if sales are now permitted. Chinese regulators are thinking of requiring special approvals and detailed justification from companies that want to buy them, explaining why domestic solutions are not enough. This policy has a dual purpose: to protect the internal market and to strengthen China’s push for technological self-sufficiency.

In simple terms, China does not want to depend on American chips. And that’s not just speculation. Nvidia itself says it has not included significant revenue from China in its forecasts because… it does not know if China will actually buy. This alone is a sign of uncertainty. Because if Nvidia is not sure there will be demand, then this agreement might be more political than commercial.

On the other hand, major Chinese tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance still prefer Nvidia for their top-tier AI applications, since domestic alternatives still lag in performance. These companies have already built massive infrastructures based on Nvidia chips, and switching to something else is not easy. Nvidia’s performance, reliability, and support remain on a different level.

But how long will this last?

Huawei has already presented its Ascend chips, and according to Huang himself, they are “possibly comparable” to the H200. If that’s true, then China may already have its Plan B. Or rather, it has already activated it. At the same time, the Chinese government is moving ahead with subsidies, tax incentives, and other measures to boost domestic chip production.

China is investing heavily in its own chip industry. It wants full technological independence. Because, as one analyst put it, being “locked” into Nvidia is like living with the sword of geopolitical uncertainty hanging over your head. Any change in US policy can once again jeopardize access to critical technology.

INVESTMENT VIEW

So, what’s the conclusion?

No one really knows. Things are fluid. The announcements are positive, but the truth will be seen in practice. Will China eventually buy? Will it allow its tech giants to invest in Nvidia chips, or will it pressure them to shift to domestic solutions?

Posted Using INLEO