War or Peace and Death of Nations

Hi Everyone,

Image created using Grok 4.0

In 2022, I wrote several posts about war. The situation was bad then. It is even worse now. According to the Copenhagen Peace Report 2025, the world is experiencing the highest number of active military conflicts since World War 2 (TVP World).

The Global Peace Index (GPI) indicates a continuous decline in peace. This is propelled by the consistently increasing number of conflict deaths, conflicts fought, and the intensity of these conflicts. See Figure 1 for GPI and Figure 2 for conflict indicators.

Figure 1: GPI Overall Trend and Year-on-Year Percentage Change (2008-2023)

Figure 2: Trends in Key Ongoing Conflict Indicators (2008-2024)

Source: Global Peace Index

The two most concerning wars are the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas/Gaza war. The Russia-Ukraine war is deeply concerning because Russia is a military superpower and the Ukrainian military are being strongly supported by NATO. A direct conflict between Russia and NATO could lead to World War 3. The Israel-Hamas/Gaza war might be even more concerning. The scale of the war is considerably smaller, but the potential for widespread escalation is huge. The outcome of this could be devastating for both Israel and Palestine. There is also a much bigger and larger plan in action, which involves the USA and Europe.

Russia-Ukraine War

In 2022, I wrote several detailed posts about the Russia-Ukraine war. In my first post, Russia Invades Ukraine: What is going on?, I discussed the likely reasons for the war and the possible objectives for both sides.

In my next two posts, Russia-Ukraine War 2022: Winners and Losers (Part One: Losers) and Russia-Ukraine War 2022: Winners and Losers (Part Two: Winners), I discussed the many likely losers and winners from this war. The losers are very easy to identify. In short, they are the people of Europe. The people fighting and dying in the war. The civilians in Ukraine who lose their homes and property and even their lives. The people in Europe who suffer because of the sanctions.

The predictions of the post have mostly come true.

The winners are a little less obvious. Some of these winners include oil companies, the military-industrial complex, the banks, and the countries that have avoided the sanctions war.

In my fourth post, Are we heading for World War 3?, I revisit the start of the original civil war, which began with a colour revolution and coup facilitated by the West. I discuss the wide division in Ukrainian society between pro-West Ukrainians in West Ukraine and pro-Russian Ukrainians in East Ukraine. I discuss the escalations within the first year of the broader war and my opinions about if the war will escalate into World War 3. I discuss the high likelihood the war would continue until Donald Trump became president of the US again.

Donald Trump has been president since January 2025, and sadly, the war rages on. An important part of Donald Trump’s election campaign was to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. He claimed it would be easy to do so. In theory, he should have been correct. Ukraine is now little more than a vassal state to the West. Donald Trump is supposed to be the leader of the West (i.e., leader of the free world). In practice, it is a little more difficult.

As president of the US, Donald Trump is still only the face of the Establishment (see my post, Faces for the Faceless). He might have been given a considerably longer leash than most other leaders, but he still would not be allowed to push back against the agenda. It appears that the continuation of the Ukraine-Russia war is still an important part of the agenda, which the Western Establishment are not ready to move on from yet.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown a strong desire to end the war by remaining open to negotiations. His core demands have remained the same for years. These include:

• Neutrality of Ukraine (i.e., no NATO membership and demilitarisation)
• Recognition of the regions of Crimea, Sevastopol, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson as Russian
• Protection of ethnic Russians and Russian culture in Ukraine (e.g., denazification of Ukraine)
• Lifting of sanctions and return of illegally seized assets.

Source: Newsweek

Considering Russia’s military dominance, these demands should appear reasonable. However, they have remained unacceptable to Ukraine’s Western backers. They continue to insist that Russia return all captured land and that Ukraine come under the protection of the West. They also insist on an immediate ceasefire prior to even attempting to negotiate with Russia (NATO). Russia refuses an immediate ceasefire and claims they would rather negotiate a permanent peace based around the core issues that caused the war (Institute for the Study of War). Therefore, peace talks stall before they can even begin.

In stark contrast to the Western leaders and Ukraine’s puppet leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian people strongly desire peace and an end to the war. This desire continues to grow stronger; see Figure 3 below.

Figure 3: Which of the following statements about the war with Russia comes closest to your personal views?

Note 1: The trend represents data aggregated from multiple surveys conducted each year in Ukraine. Data were aggregated to increase robustness and differ slightly from previously published estimates for 2022 and 2023.
Note 2: In 2023, 2024 and 2025, some occupied territories with entrenched Russian control were excluded due to lack of coverage by Ukrainian mobile operators. The exclusion represents approximately 10% to 13% of the population.
Source: Gallup

Considering the lack of advancement of peace talks because of the unwillingness of the West to negotiate, it is impossible to truly assess Vladimir Putin’s actual desire for peace. I believe it is unlikely Vladimir Putin wants to end the war now. The war has strong support from the Russian public, and this support appears to be growing; see Figure 4 below.

Figure 4: Do you personally support or not support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine?

Source: Statista

It is also likely that the Russian leadership would like to capture Odessa. Russia has strong historical connections with Odessa. Capturing Odessa would also leave Ukraine landlocked and significantly weakened economically and militarily. The people of Odessa are likely to be accepting of Russian rule, considering that the majority of the people have voted for pro-Russian candidates in the past (Wikipedia). However, I believe it is unlikely that Russia will venture too far west, as their rule would be strongly rejected.

If the war reaches a military solution, Russia will mostly control the South and East. This is roughly the same outcome that I predicted in my 2022 post, Russia Invades Ukraine: What is going on?. What I did not account for back in 2022 was the West Establishment’s obsession with this war.

The West has provided Ukraine with over $100 billion worth of weapons since the start of the war (The Kyiv Independent). This obsession could lead to direct military intervention by the West (i.e., NATO). Eventually, Ukraine will reach a point where it can no longer continue the war (i.e., its nation will be destroyed). When this time comes, will the Western Establishments be able to let this war go? It is likely they will not. On this basis, European nations will be in direct conflict with Russia. The combined population of European NATO countries is significantly greater than that of Russia. This could lead to decades of war.

Why are the Western Establishment/s so obsessed with Russia? I believe there are three possible reasons.

The Western Establishment wants to control Russia because of its vast resources. Russia has by far the largest landmass of any country in the world. This land is rich in resources. Western businesses would like to have unfettered access to these resources. This could be done through direct control over Russia or by installing a puppet leader who would give them this access. I consider this unlikely, as the Russian people would strongly oppose Western or pro-Western leadership. However, it is possible that the Western Establishment believes its propaganda is capable of swaying Russian opinion.

The Western Establishment wants a forever war with Russia and its allies. Russia has a large, powerful military that is extremely difficult to defeat on its home soil. NATO has an even larger military and a far greater population base. It could attack Russia indefinitely. This scenario benefits the elites on both sides. A forever war would be a powerful control mechanism. Governments would be able to implement almost any policy it wants in the name of defence. In doing so, the masses will be suppressed and the elites will become richer. Forever wars were described in the George Orwell book ‘1984’.

The Western Establishment wants to destroy the European countries and possibly even the USA. The West is facing numerous different crises. A prolonged war would deepen these crises and could eventually lead to the collapse of countries. These countries could become rolled into one United State of Europe (a more formal and authoritarian replacement for the current European Union). This would lead to the centralisation of power and enable the elite’s greater control. Democracy as we know it would no longer exist. However, the newly developed culture from mass immigration would not necessarily require it.

It is also possible that the goal is a mixture of two or three of the above goals. All of which is catastrophically bad for most Europeans, which would also include Russians.

Israel-Hamas/Gaza War

For the most part, the majority of the fighting has been confined to the Gaza Strip, which is only about 365km². Despite what seems like a limited war, it is garnering an enormous amount of attention from the rest of the world.

NGO-sponsored (e.g., Open Society) ‘pro-Palestine’/anti-Israel protests have occurred across Europe and the USA almost every week for two years; some of these protests have attracted hundreds of thousands of people.

Almost all mainstream media in Europe and the USA have consistently featured the war on an almost daily basis (Grok 4.0).

Since the October 7 Hamas attack, the United Nations Security Council has met over 80 times regarding the war. (Grok 4.0).

Why is this war receiving so much attention, and why might it be the most significant current conflict in the world?

In December 2023, in three posts of my ‘Global Collapse’ series, I discussed at length the Israel-Hamas/Gaza war. In Part 3, I discussed the start of the war and the world’s response to it. In Part 4, I discussed the history between the Palestinians and the Israelis from the creation of modern-day Israel. In Part 5A, I discuss how the war might progress and expand, the impact on the West, and a few popular conspiracy theories.

Almost two years have passed since I wrote those posts. The war has reached a ceasefire. Donald Trump claims his 20-point peace plan has ended the war. However, as of October 29, phase one is not even fully completed yet.

So far, Hamas has returned all remaining living hostages, the Israel Defence Force (IDF) has retreated from Gaza City to an agreed position (yellow line), which gives them control over roughly half of Gaza, and Israel has released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. However, Hamas has not returned all the remaining bodies of dead hostages, and Israel has placed restrictions on the amount of aid entering Gaza (NPR).

Phase 2 of negotiations has been reported to be underway. This phase focuses on Hamas demilitarisation, destruction of Hamas tunnels/infrastructure and weapon production facilities, amnesty for compliant Hamas members, and deployment of an international stabilisation force (Pravada USA). This phase will be difficult to implement.

Hamas rejects full disarmament and the destruction of their network of tunnels. They demand a full and permanent withdrawal of the IDF from all Gazan territories, security guarantees from Arab or UN-backed forces from Qatar, Turkey, or Egypt, immediate unrestricted aid for rebuilding, and a pathway to a Palestinian state, which includes the West Bank. If these conditions are met, they will agree to gradually disarm to a Palestinian-led army (Grok 4.0).

The most likely outcome is a break of negotiations during Phase 2, which will likely lead to the continuation of the war. How this breakdown occurs is important. Hamas will want to prolong negotiations. A long ceasefire is to their advantage; they can reorganise and rearm. Israel could feel compelled to remain patient until the US Government (Donald Trump) gives them clearance to continue the war. To give such authority to another nation, even a close ‘ally’, should be considered unacceptable. However, resuming the conflict without US support would likely lead to close to complete global isolation and a possible green light to the nations that seek to destroy Israel.

The Conspiracy (Greater Israel)

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There have been plenty of conspiracy theories regarding the war. One of the most popular conspiracy theories is the ‘Greater Israel’ project. The argument is that October 7 was a false flag event aimed at justifying Israel’s invasion and capturing of Gaza. This would lead to the expelling and/or massacring of the Gazans. This would be followed by the annexation of the West Bank/Judea and Samaria and eventually taking Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, parts of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. See the map in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Map of Greater Israel Accredited to Theodor Herzl

Source: Middle East Eye

This conspiracy theory has been reinforced by:

• the slow progress of the investigation into the events and failures that occurred on October 7 (Jerusalem Post)
• accusations of the IDF carrying out the Hannibal Directive (permission to attack enemies holding hostages, thus putting the hostages’ lives in danger) on October 7 (ABC News)
• the mainstream media reports of collective punishment, mass starvation, and genocide in Gaza
• the frequent condemnation of Israel’s action by most countries on the United Nations Security Council
• a United Nation’s report claiming Israel is committing genocide in Gaza (United Nations)
• the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) cases against Israel and Israeli leaders (Arab Center Washington DC)

Despite what many might consider strong evidence for the ‘Greater Israel’ conspiracy, there are several holes in the theory. Israel has not captured any new land from other states since the Six-Day War in 1967. Since then, it has returned land to Egypt (Sinai Peninsula in 1982) (Center for Israel Education), it has allowed partial Palestinian governance in the West Bank and Gaza (1990s Oslo Accords (Britannica)), and it has allowed full internal Palestinian control of Gaza from 2005 (Britannica).

The number of deaths within the two years of war does not threaten to wipe out a significant portion of the Gazan people (population of over two million people). According to the United Nations, as of October 22, approximately 68,000 Palestinians have been killed. This does not break down civilian and militant deaths. The United Nations are using figures reported by Gaza’s Ministry of Health (run by Hamas). According to The Guardian, leaked data from the IDF reveals a civilian death rate of 83%, which is around 5 civilian deaths to 1 combatant. A similar civilian death rate was reported for the Iraq War (Jewish News Syndicate). To the contrary, there are also reports that the civilian death rate could be somewhere between 50% and 66% (Times of Israel).

Even if we assume the worst-case scenario, these numbers over two years fall short of genocides in other countries. For example, in Rwanda in 1994, between 500,000 and one million Rwandan Tutsi were massacred in just 100 days (United States Holocaust Memorial Musuem). The recent mass killings in Syria more closely resemble genocide. Thousands of Alawites, Christians, Druze, Kurds, and other minorities have been killed this year. In just two days in March, over a thousand Alawites were executed (Times of India). In just one week in July, over a thousand Druze were murdered (NDTV World).

The number of civilian deaths in Gaza is significantly higher than it could have been because Egypt has refused to help evacuate Gazans from the war zone. Instead, they have increased border security to ensure they are unable to escape (Washington Intitute and Foreign Policy). Israel has provided warning prior to attacks. However, Hamas has actively prevented civilians from leaving these areas. This is to protect themselves and to increase the number of civilians killed to enhance their own propaganda. Hamas also operates out of buildings within populated areas, thus putting more civilian lives at risk (ABC News).

The Real Conspiracy (Based on My Observations)

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The real conspiracy is the destruction of Israel. Hamas is merely a pawn to reach this endeavour. The main perpetrators are key actors within the global Establishment. These are governments of European and Middle Eastern countries, multinational corporations, mainstream media, global organisations, and a considerable faction of the US Establishment. Non-Government Organisations (NGOs), trade unions, and universities have been used as tools to turn public opinion against Israel. Public opinion can be used as justification for Western ‘democracies’ to turn their foreign policy against Israel.

Below, in Figure 6, are the results of surveys from various countries regarding their favourability towards Israel.

Figure 6: Israel’s Favourability by Country as of Spring 2025

Source: Pew Research Center

The reason Hamas attacked on October 7 was to solicit a response from Israel. The kidnapping of the hostages gave them protection and bargaining chips to prolong the war. Prolonging the war gives them more time to erode Israel’s reputation. It gives the NGOs more time and opportunities to fund and organise large protests. It gives the mainstream media more time to run stories about the suffering in Gaza. This has been particularly true in the UK and European countries. This is less so in the US, where Fox News and Evangelical channels have remained pro-Israel. Since the US is Israel’s strongest ally and the Republican voter base, who mostly watch Fox News, and Evangelical Christians are the most ardent supporters of Israel, it would not make sense for these channels to promote anti-Israel propaganda.

The United Nations have looked unfavourably on Israel and their relationship with Palestine since modern-day Israel’s inception in 1948. The initial proposed borders were created to cause instability between Israelis and the Arabs (discussed in my post, History of Tensions). Since October 7, the United Nations’ position on Israel has hardened. This is in terms of:

• the excessive number of Security Council meetings
• the strong rhetoric from Security Council members
• the UN published reports condemning Israel
• the UN charity and aid organisations’ condemnation of Israel
• the protection of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and their presence in Gaza despite their links to the events of October 7 and the propaganda campaigns within Gaza

At the UN General Assembly in September, many Western countries declared their recognition for a Palestinian state. This declaration would not have occurred if the events of October 7 had not happened. It showed a strong symbolic reward for terrorism and sent a message to the Muslim nations that the majority of the West no longer supports Israel.

It is important to note that the US (Establishment) has strong influence in the UN. They could have influenced many of the countries to not recognise a Palestinian state. However, did not do so. The same holds true of other anti-Israel actions and statements made by these countries. We could argue that the US Establishment is deliberately attempting to isolate Israel to gain more control over it. Let's discuss the US's position further.

On its own, it is relatively insignificant if the European countries drop their support for Israel because the most important country to them is the US. Currently, the US may have one of the most pro-Israel Governments in history. Despite this, US citizens’ sympathy for Israel is falling.

Figure 7 compares the percent of respondents who sympathise with Israelis with the percentage of respondents who sympathise with Palestinians. Figure 8 compares the trends in approval and disapproval of Israel’s military action in Gaza. Figure 9 looks at the trends in US opinion regarding the deaths of civilians in Gaza.

Figure 7: Americans' Sympathies in the Middle East Situation, 2001-2025

Source: Gallup

Figure 8: Approval of Israel’s Military Action in Gaza

Source: Gallup

Figure 9: US Citizens’ Opinions Regarding Deaths of Civilians in Gaza

Source: New York Times

The decline of support and sympathy for Israel is primarily coming from Democrat voters; see Figure 10.

Figure 10: Approval of Military Based on Political Support

Source: Gallup

We could argue that this decline is not that important, as Donald Trump’s base still strongly supports Israel. However, this support could be on the verge of falling as well. Republican voters over 50 strongly support Israel, but only around 50% of Republican voters under 50 years old support them, and this support is falling (Newsweek). Prominent conservatives such as Candice Owens, Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Steve Bannon, and Megyn Kelly have criticised Israel’s actions in Gaza and towards Palestinians in general (Newsweek and The Week).

On October 13, the day the remaining hostages held by Hamas were returned, Donald Trump delivered a very powerful and compelling speech in the Knesset (Parliament of Israel). In short, he declared the end of the war and victory for Israel. With Hamas still armed, this appears highly unlikely. I believe the point of the speech was to convince Israeli citizens that the war need not continue and to demonstrate to US citizens that he has played his part in securing peace in the Middle East. I believe this implies that if, or more likely when, the peace process falls apart, the US’s role would be limited.

Since Donald Trump’s speech, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff claimed to have felt betrayed by Israel’s attack on Qatar (CBS News). US Vice President JD Vance strongly criticised the vote in the Knesset to annex the West Bank, calling it an ‘insult’ (AP News). Is this the US’s way of distancing itself from Israel or just messaging to the Arabs, the Qataris in particular?

At the end of 2026 there are the US midterm elections. If the war in the Middle East continues and if the US is perceived to be firmly supporting Israel, the Republicans could lose both the House and the Senate, thus making Trump an openly lame duck president for his final two years.

If the war in Gaza continues and Israel no longer has US support, the chances of a broader war in the Middle East increase significantly. Israel could recklessly attack one of the Muslim nations, or one of them could stage a false flag event blaming Israel. The Muslim nations would attack Israel in response to this attack or claimed attack.

Considering military strength, proximity, and control over Syria, the biggest threat to Israel would be Turkey. Turkish citizens are most likely to support an invasion, and proxies in Syria could initiate the first part of an attack. It is also possible other countries such as Egypt could join the war as well; they have had a large number of troops (40,000) in the Sinai Peninsula for months (Military Africa).

Why Would the West Want Israel to Fall and/or Allow the Persecution of Jews?

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Israel has been an important strategic ally to the West. Why would they choose to abandon them or even wish for their destruction? Europe is moving towards an Islamic world. It appears to be the chosen religion because Muslims can be easily controlled through their religion and culture (discussed in my posts, Global Collapse – Part 5B: Global Civil War and Would You Rather Live in a Democracy or a Dictatorship?). They do not require the Establishment to maintain the facade of democracy. The new Middle Eastern countries (the majority of which were created post-World War 1) have shown that elites can prosper and control the masses with minimal resistance. Neither Judeo nor Christian values are compatible with this new world order. Since October 7, hate crimes towards Jews have increased sharply in Europe (FRA)

Judaism is widely recognised as one of the oldest monotheistic religions. Despite this long existence, the number of Jews in the world is relatively low compared with other major but newer religions. The main reason for is because of the many massacres over the centuries. Below are some of the worst.

• The Babylonians massacred tens of thousands of Jews in 597 BC (Ligonier Ministries).
• The Romans may have killed over a million Jews in the first Jewish-Roman War (66-73 CE) (History of Information).
• The Romans killed another half million Jews in the Bar Kokhba Revolt (132-136 CE) (World History Encyclopedia).
• In 1146, the Almohads massacred 220,000 Jews in Morocco and Marrakesh (Rescue in the Holocaust).
• In Ukraine, in the Khmelnytsky Uprising (1648-1657), an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 Jews were massacred (Wikipedia).
• During the Holocaust of World War 2, around six million Jews were massacred by the Nazis (Holocaust Encyclopedia).
• Thousands more Jews have been killed in numerous pogroms across the Middle East (Jewish Virtual Library).

The Jews have often been minorities in Christian and Muslim countries, thus making them an easy target for discrimination. This is more of an enabling factor than a core reason. I believe the reason relates more to success. Jews, Ashkenazi Jews in particular, have been very successful. For example, Jews make up less than 0.2% of the world population but comprise 22% of Nobel laureates (Haaretz). They are also disproportionately represented in the Forbes 400 (25%-35%) and chess grandmasters based on Elo ratings (50% of the top hundred) (RAESE and Jews in Chess).

Their success makes them a threat. Some is good for progress, but too many could lead to threatening competition with the existing elites or even the potential for new domination. Hence, those with power decide to cull them to keep that from happening.

Conclusion

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If a peace deal is not reached, Ukraine appears almost destined for complete destruction. The next question is whether any other European nation will become directly involved. No European nation or even a collective of European nations (e.g., coalition of the willing) could defeat Russia without incurring massive losses. If a ‘1984’-style forever war is their goal, this is a likely outcome.

Israel is not necessarily destined for destruction. However, it is in a very precarious position. It has lost the support of European Governments and the public. It could soon lose the support of the US and will lose support if the Democrats take control of the Government. Israel can secure its borders from terrorist forces and proxies (e.g., establish defined borders with Palestinian West Bank territories) and can maintain reasonable diplomatic relations with the Muslim nations. If a broader war breaks out, Israel is in grave danger. It would need quick resolution.

Another war is brewing; this one is between the US and Venezuela. The US wants a regime change in Venezuela. They desire to replace the existing political system with a Western-style democracy (i.e., make Venezuela a vassal state to the US). In exchange, they want to gain access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. This could prove to be very profitable to major US oil companies (e.g., Chevron and ExxonMobil (Newsday)). I do not believe this war would be as significant as the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas wars.

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The Sapien Loop Series

I am writing a trilogy of books titled Sapien Loop. The first in the series is Sapien Loop: End of an Era and the second is Sapien Loop: Frozen in Time. I published both of these books as ebooks on Amazon, and I have posted completed chapters to my @captainhive account. I anticipate publishing the third book in early 2027. I expect to title this book Sapien Loop: Worlds Collide. In 2025, I plan to write short stories about some of the characters and their adventures. I will post these to my @captainhive over the course of the year.

Brief Summary of Sapien Loop: End of an Era

This story is based on the fictional planet Sapia and its sole country, Sapey. Sapey is portrayed as a form of utopia for all its citizens. No poverty. No war. Almost no crime. Opportunities for all.

This was enough for most citizens, but not all. In one of the small regions, some of the citizens had become discontent. They felt something important was missing in their lives. Their discontent did not go unnoticed. Some of the Sapey elite wanted to weaponise this discontent to gain more power. This created more chaos than they anticipated. This led to further widespread social unrest.

On top of the chaos, ambition and greed provoked another enemy. This enemy was on a mission to settle both new and old scores.

Brief Summary of Sapien Loop: Frozen in Time

This story is based six years after the original story. The Downs Region is still suffering from a serious health crisis caused by the contaminated water. The main characters are desperately trying to find a cure for the illness that has been caused by the water.

One of the main characters has discovered frozen humanoids in hidden chambers. It appears they have been frozen for a long time. These chambers connect to a vast network of tunnels. While exploring the tunnels, one of the frozen humanoids disappears. It appears he has been stolen.

The story takes a step back in time to tell the story of the frozen humanoids. How and why were they frozen? This part of the story also explains the fall of ancient Sapey and the birth of the Sapiens. Can those from the past be able to coexist with those from the present?

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