The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation (Appendices, End Notes, and References)
Below are the appendices, end notes, and references for the paper The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation.
Appendix A
Table 9: Results of BHAP Capacity Projects Evaluated with CARP
| Project | Funding | Project Name | NPV ($) | BCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | BHAP | Cairns SAC Stage 3 – Kate St to Aumuller St | -77,213,044 | 0.03 |
| C3 | NB2 | Cairns SAC Stage 2 – Robert Rd to Foster Rd | 45,820,000 | 2 |
| C4 | BHAP | Edmonton to Gordonvale Duplication | -156,797,288 | 0.48 |
| C11 | BHAP | Townsville Northern Access – Intersections | -25,251,631 | 0.34 |
| C13 | NB2 | MacArthur & Melton Black Drives Intersection | 24,411,154 | 2 |
| C16 | BHAP | Bowen Intersection Upgrade | -25,713,888 | 0.04 |
| C19 | BHAP | Knobels Rd Intersection Upgrade | 6,000,000 | 2.2 |
| C20 | BHAP | Mackay Northern Access Upgrade - Stage 2 | -30,352,887 | 0.24 |
| C21 | NB2 | Mackay Northern Access Upgrade | 12,370,545 | 1.12 |
| C23 | NB2 | Mackay Intersection Upgrades Stage 2 | 13,610,000 | 2.4 |
| C24b | BHAP | Mackay Ring Road Stage 1 Construction | 606,633,413 | 2.35 |
| C26 | BHAP | Hay Point Road to Mackay Duplication | -218,508,625 | 0.44 |
| C27 | BHAP | Hay Point Road Intersection Upgrade | -15,145,614 | 0.43 |
| C28 | BHAP | Sarina to Hay Point Road Duplication | -191,770,422 | 0.34 |
| C29 | NB2 | Sarina Northern Access Upgrade - Coast Rd | -4,515,257 | 0.69 |
| C30 | BHAP | Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S2 | -80,876,381 | 0.15 |
| C31 | BHAP | Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S1 | -72,730,761 | 0.04 |
| C32 | BHAP | Rockhampton Intersection upgrades | -19,097,193 | 0.59 |
| C42 | BHAP | Tinana Interchange | 23,851,426 | 1.48 |
| C43 | BHAP | Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 built) | -44,268,686 | 0.11 |
| C43 | BHAP | Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 not built) | -39,240,964 | 0.22 |
| C44 | BHAP | Gympie Northern Approach Intersection Upgrades (Section D built) | -112,261,525 | 0.12 |
| C45/C46 | BHAP | Cooroy to Curra - Section D (Stages 1 & 2) | -505,185,103 | 0.75 |
| C47 | BHAP | Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D built) | 376,668,653 | 1.63 |
| C47 | BHAP | Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D not built) | 346,013,096 | 1.58 |
| C49 | NB2 | Cooroy to Curra - Section A | -124,540,496 | 0.84 |
| C50 | BHAP | Maroochydore Road Interchange Upgrade - Stages 1 & 2 | -43,642,984 | 0.79 |
| C51 | BHAP | Caloundra Road to Sunshine Motorway - Stage 4 (Stages 1 – 4) | -1,408,359,418 | 0.25 |
| C53 | BHAP | Boundary Road Interchange Upgrade | -2,788,076 | 0.97 |
| C54 | NB2 | Managed Motorways - Gateway Motorway | 370,704,869 | 2.72 |
| -- | -- | Total | -1,765,183,215 | 0.78 |
| Source: TMR 2013 | - |
|---|
Table 10: Results of BHAP Flood Immunity Projects Evaluated with CARP
| Project | Funding | Project Name | NPV ($) | BCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F3 | BHAP | Meunga/Sunbeam/Lily | -26,644,493 | 0.65 |
| F4 | BHAP | Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation | -702,502,989 | 0.11 |
| F4/F5 | BHAP | Cattle/Ingham/Cardwell | -763,858,109 | 0.18 |
| F5 | NB2 | Cattle and Frances Creek Upgrade | -109,714,804 | 0.21 |
| F6 | BHAP | Haughton River Upgrade | -397,283,384 | 0.11 |
| F8 | BHAP | Burdekin Deviation Stages 1 and 2 | -377,662,248 | 0.74 |
| F9 | NB2 | Yellow Gin Creek Upgrade | -43,725,950 | 0.09 |
| F10 | NB2 | Sandy Gully Bridge Upgrade | -70,035,637 | 0.07 |
| F11 | BHAP | Goorganga Plains Upgrade – Preserve | -304,170,956 | 0.07 |
| F12 | BHAP | Jumper Creek Upgrade | -9,116,930 0.37 | |
| F13 | NB2 | Yeppen Floodplain South Upgrade | -149,309,621 | 0.49 |
| F14 | BHAP | Currajong Creek Bridge Upgrade | -44,566,698 | 0.16 |
| F15 | BHAP | Saltwater Creek Bridge Upgrade | -38,291,244 | 0.25 |
| F16 | BHAP | Tiaro Flood Immunity Upgrades | 240,839,436 6.20 | |
| -- | -- | Total | - 1,983,825,834 | 0.49 |
| Source: TMR [2] | - |
|---|
Appendix B
Table 11: Capital Costs and Estimate Stage (Capacity Projects)
| Project | Type | Project Name | Capital Cost ($) | Estimate Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | BHAP | Cairns SAC Stage 3 – Kate St to Aumuller St | 80,000,000 | P90 |
| C3 | NB2 | Cairns SAC Stage 2 – Robert Rd to Foster Rd | 58,000,000 | P90 |
| C4 | BHAP | Edmonton to Gordonvale Duplication | 300,000,000 | P90 |
| C11 | BHAP | Townsville Northern Access – Intersections | 30,000,000 | Other |
| C13 | NB2 | MacArthur & Melton Black Drives Intersection | 26,000,000 | P50 |
| C16 | BHAP | Bowen Intersection Upgrade | 20,000,000 | Other |
| C19 | BHAP | Knobels Rd Intersection Upgrade | 5,000,000 | Planning |
| C20 | BHAP | Mackay Northern Access Upgrade - Stage 2 | 40,000,000 | Other |
| C21 | NB2 | Mackay Northern Access Upgrade | 80,000,000 | Other |
| C23 | NB2 | Mackay Intersection Upgrades Stage 2 | 9,000,000 | Other |
| C24b | BHAP | Mackay Ring Road Stage 1 Construction | 450,000,000 | Planning |
| C26 | BHAP | Hay Point Road to Mackay Duplication | 390,000,000 | Strategic |
| C27 | BHAP | Hay Point Road Intersection Upgrade | 20,000,000 | Strategic |
| C28 | BHAP | Sarina to Hay Point Road Duplication | 290,000,000 | Other |
| C29 | NB2 | Sarina Northern Access Upgrade - Coast Rd | 11,000,000 | Other |
| C30 | BHAP | Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S2 | 95,000,000 | Unit Rates |
| C31 | BHAP | Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S1 | 75,000,000 | Unit Rates |
| C32 | BHAP | Rockhampton Intersection upgrades | 30,000,000 | Strategic |
| C42 | BHAP | Tinana Interchange | 50,000,000 | Other |
| C43 | BHAP | Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 built) | 50,000,000 | Other |
| C44 | BHAP | Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 not built) | 110,000,000 | Other |
| C45/C46 | BHAP | Gympie Northern Approach Intersection Upgrades (Section D built) | 2,050,000,000 | Concept |
| C47 | BHAP | Cooroy to Curra - Section D (Stages 1 & 2) | 600,000,000 | Concept |
| C49 | NB2 | Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D built) | 790,000,000 | Concept |
| C50 | BHAP | Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D not built) | 209,000,000 | Unit Rates |
| C51 | BHAP | Cooroy to Curra - Section A | 1,875,000,000 | Prelim |
| C53 | BHAP | Maroochydore Road Interchange Upgrade - Stages 1 & 2 | 110,000,000 | Prelim |
| C54 | NB2 | Caloundra Road to Sunshine Motorway - Stage 4 (Stages 1 - 4) | 215,000,000 | Strategic |
| Source: TMR [27] | - |
|---|
Table 12: Capital Costs and Estimate Stage (Flood Immunity Projects)
| Project | Funding | Project Name | Capital Cost ($) | Estimate Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F3 | BHAP | Meunga/Sunbeam/Lily | 80,000,000 | Concept |
| F4 | BHAP | Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation | 810,000,000 | PPR |
| F4/F5 | BHAP | Cattle/Ingham/Cardwell | 145,000,000 | PPR/Concept |
| F5 | NB2 | Cattle and Frances Creek Upgrade | 955,000,000 | Concept |
| F6 | BHAP | Haughton River Upgrade | 460,000,000 | Tender |
| F8 | BHAP | Burdekin Deviation Stages 1 and 2 | 1,430,000,000 | Prelim |
| F9 | NB2 | Yellow Gin Creek Upgrade | 49,000,000 | Prelim |
| F10 | NB2 | Sandy Gully Bridge Upgrade | 80,000,000 | P90 |
| F11 | BHAP | Goorganga Plains Upgrade - Preserve | 340,000,000 | PPR |
| F12 | BHAP | Jumper Creek Upgrade | 15,000,000 | Prelim |
| F13 | NB2 | Yeppen Floodplain South Upgrade | 296,000,000 | Prelim |
| F14 | BHAP | Currajong Creek Bridge Upgrade | 55,000,000 | P90 |
| F15 | BHAP | Saltwater Creek Bridge Upgrade | 52,000,000 | Strategic |
| F16 | BHAP | Tiaro Flood Immunity Upgrades | 60,000,000 | Strategic |
| Source: TMR[28] | - |
|---|
Appendix C
Figure 1: Map of the Bruce Highway and Proposed Projects
Source: TMR [2]
End Notes
- Appendix C contains a map of the Bruce Highway, which includes the locations of all the BHAP projects.
- BHAP is referred to as both the funding body as well as the strategic action plan that encapsulates the NBP1, NB2 and BHAP funded projects.
- MRS defines the number of carriageways, seal width and accident rate for a specific road type (TMR 2011a)[8]
- Projects may have been ranked prior to the CBA using alternative methods such as multi-criteria analysis.
- The BCR has been presented in the BHAP report rather than the NBIR as the BCR was stated as the requirement from the TMR BHAP committee.
- Although this assumption is unrealistic, in order to compare project results, all projects need to be evaluated over the same period.
- Chartview is an ARMIS database containing road characteristics and traffic data.
- Q50 Bridge is built to a standard where it will only flood during a 50-year or worse flood event.
- Maintenance costs are based on information provided by the Regions.
- Projects are recommended based on obtaining a BCR above one for the Flood Immunity Program of Works rather than each project achieving a BCR above one.
- SIDRA Intersection is a well-known software package used worldwide for intersection capacity, level of service and performance analysis by traffic design, operations and planning professionals [21].
- VOC have been calculated within CARP as the SIDRA fuel consumption data was not provided with the other SIDRA data, which was recorded in a spreadsheet.
- ‘Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) cover any technology applied to transport and infrastructure to transfer information between systems for improved safety, productivity and environmental performance’ [22].
- The upstream area is the section of road immediately preceding the overtaking lane [8].
- The downstream area of the overtaking lane is the section of road immediately following the overtaking lane [8].
- The results covered in this section are just a broad overview of the program. A detailed discussion of the benefit and cost streams of each project or even the program as a whole would require another paper. The TMR BHAP report contains more information regarding the results.
- Maintaining a program NPV of greater than one is important to demonstrate the overall viability of the program form a strategic approach even though the benefits of some of the projects are understated.
- P50 estimate is an estimate with a 50% confidence of not being exceeded at project completion, while not being conservative [25].
- P90 estimate is an estimate with a 90% confidence of not being exceeded at project completion, while not being conservative [25].
References
[1] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Action Plan “Out of the Crisis”, Queensland Government
[2] Transport and Main Roads (2013), Benefit Cost Analysis – Bruce Highway Action Plan Economic Evaluation, Queensland Government, Brisbane (Unpublished)
[3] Nemhauser, G. L. and Ullmann, Z. (1969), Discrete Dynamic Programming and Capital Allocation, Management Science, 15, (9), 494-505
[4] Gear, T. E. and Cowie, G. C. (1980), A Note on Modeling Project Interdependence in Research and Development, Decision Science, 11, 738-748
[5] Fox, G. E., Baker, N. R. and Bryant, L. J. (1984), Economic Models for R&D Project Selection in the Presence of Project Interactions, Management Science, 30, 890-902
[6] Tao, X. and Schonfeld, P. (2006), Selection and Scheduling of Interdependent Transportation Projects with Island Models, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1981, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 133-141
[7] Davies, W. (2012), Road Program Evaluation: Assessing the Bigger Picture, 25th ARRB Conference
[8] Transport and Main Roads (2011), Cost-benefit Analysis Manual: Road Projects, Queensland Government, Brisbane
[9] Austroads (2005), Economic Evaluation of Road Infrastructure Investment Proposals: Harmonisation of Non-Urban Road User Cost Models, Austroads, AP-R264/05
[10] Austroads (2001), Economic Evaluation of Road Investment Proposals: Improved Predictions Model for Road Crash Savings, Austroads, AP-R184
[11] Road Transport Authority (2004), Accident Reduction Guide, NSW Government
[12] Austroads (2012), Guide to Project Evaluation – Part 4: Project Evaluation Data (Updated Road User Effects Unit Values), Austroads
[13] Austroads (1996), Benefit Cost Analysis Manual, Austroads, Sydney
[14] Australian Transport Council (2006): National Guidelines for Transport Systems Management in Australia, 5 Background material, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra
[15] Campbell, H. F. and Brown, R. P. C., (2007), Benefit-Cost Analysis Financial and Economic Appraisal Using Spreadsheets, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
[16] Davies, W. (2011), Advanced Methods of Evaluating Benefits from Improved Flood Immunity in Queensland, Australasian Transport Research Forum 2011
[17] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Upgrade (Cooroy to Curra), Queensland Government (Unpublished)
[18] Transport and Main Roads (2011), Boundary Road Interchange Upgrade, Queensland Government
[19] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Action Plan – Project Descriptions, Queensland Government (Unpublished)
[20] Transport and Main Roads (2010), National Managed Motorways Discussion Paper, Queensland Government (Unpublished)
[21] VIASTRADA (2008), SIDRA Solutions, VIASTRADA LTD, available at http://viastrada.co.nz, accessed 27/05/2013
[22] Department of Infrastructure and Transport (2013), Intelligent Transport Systems, Australian Government, available at www.infrastructure.gov.au, accessed 27/05/2013
[23] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Widening, Queensland Government, Brisbane (Unpublished)
[24] Department of Infrastructure and Transport (2013), A Ten Year Plan for a Better, Safer Bruce Highway, Australian Government
[25] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Project Cost Estimating Manual Fifth Edition, Queensland Government
[26] Miller, E. M. (2005), The Cutoff Benefit-Cost Ratio Should Exceed One.: An article from:
Engineering Economist, Institute of Industrial Engineers.
[27] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Capacity Projects – 20120829, Queensland Government (Unpublished Spreadsheet)
[28] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Flooding Projects – 20120829, Queensland Government (Unpublished Spreadsheet)
@spectrumecons side note, I was reading through a Sapiens Loop post that came through my feed, I think even though it's fiction, it is political fiction, or science fiction with a political aspect, it might be reasonable to add in a #Politics if there is tag space remaining.
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There is a political aspect to several of the chapters. It is a little late to add the tag to the book 2 chapters. I will consider it for the next book and even the short stories.
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@alohaed(10/20) tipped @spectrumecons