Escalation Presale Day One Analysis

Introduction

This post is going to focus on Escalation mini-set presale and will attempt to make a projection if the mini-set is going to sell out and also look at the Escalation leaderboard and try to determine if there is value in sniping a position on the leaderboard. Obviously I would need to follow up this post with a post that is a day or so away from the end of the presale in order to better understand where the sniping opportunities might be.

Current State of the Escalation Presale

Now that we are more than a day into the Escalation presale we see some of the initial sale numbers. There was a total of 500,000 Escalation packs available and we have 362,277 packs still available which means that 137,723 packs have sold so far.

If we were to price these in credits then at $5 a pack we have $688,615 spent on Escalation packs in just a day. That is the most optimistic revenue number for Splinterlands though. The reality is that purchases are probably a mix of DEC, Credits and SPS. SPS is actually the cheapest way to buy Escalation packs at this time. And according to @clayboyn less than a thousand packs has been sold for credits so far.

You are paying 350 SPS per pack and at $0.0065 cents buying using SPS is:
350*0.0065=$2.275 per Escalation pack or a 55% discount of the official price of $5 per pack! That is definitely a good deal if you have SPS or decide to acquire some at these very low levels! If everyone paid in SPS the sales so far would be worth only $313,319.83 in the middle of a brutal bear market for crypto...

You could also use DEC to buy packs and in that case you are paying around 59% of the $5 Escalation pack value or a discount of 41% off of the official price of $5. In this case you are paying 5000*0.0005877=$2.9385 per pack, also not a bad price as you are getting Escalation pack at under three dollars. If we assumed that all packs were bought in DEC we would get $404,699 spent on the Escalation presale so far.

So if we assume that 1000 packs was sold using credits that makes it $5,000 for credits and probably around 80% of the Escalation packs were sold for SPS, so my estimate of sales so far would be:

137,723 - 1000 = 136,723
136,723 * 80 = 109,378 sold for SPS
27,345 packs sold for DEC

$5000 Credit Sales
$80,352 DEC Sales
$248,835 SPS Sales

For the total of $334,187 in Escalation Pack Sales in total so far. This is really close to the number that was produced using all SPS pack sales of $313,319. I would be curious what the official numbers would be, I asked about an API that could be called to see the pack mix and if that becomes available I would be able to give more precise numbers.

Escalation Leaderboard

If we take a look at the Escalation Presale Leaderboard so far we would see that there is a sharp drop off in the number of packs even in the top tier with first and second place whales at 10K packs so far with 6th place at only 3510. I don't think the number will stay at three thousand, I would expect it to be at five thousand or more by the end of the Escalation Presale to get the Summoner Design right and Max Level Regular Foil, Gold Foil and Balck Foil copies. There is just too much additional value between sixth and seventh place.

At the time of this writing there is only one legendary summoner in a Black foil available for sale and it is $888 dollars! There are three max level Gold foil legendary summoners for sale and if we were to take a conservative value of $200 that would mean over $1000 in value already plus a max level legendary archon in a regular foil and those run between $60 and $238 so another $100+ in value by my conservative estimate for the total of around $1,200 in additional value to go for the sixth place.

At the current value of of the pack for SPS of $2.275 the difference between seventh and sixth place should be at around 527 Escalation packs.

The next value cutoff is at twenty packs where you loose a black foil promo card and instead get a single one BCX gold card of Doldrus. Right now you would have to have over 1450 packs to get the twentieth place. There are quite a few people close to that number so this is likely to change as well:

At number thirty you are the last one to get a legendary title The Ascendant that gives really nice production bonus on land, I am sure there will be people interested in this title. At this time you have to buy 1,244+ packs to get it and once again plenty of people close to this number so it will also change:

The next cut off after top 100 where you get rare title instead of epic title and you loose one BCX of Doldrus gold foil.

These pack numbers are much smaller and it would be interesting to watch where the top one hundred will end up. Two hundred three packs is what it would take to get into top one hundred right now.

And finally to get the rare title it only takes nine packs right now!

And finally, another interesting number to get the full legendary promo is 1100 packs. Right now it also gets you an epic title and one BCX of gold Doldrus. That would take 385,000 of SPS tokens and would cost you $2,502.

It would be interesting to watch the sale and see where the final numbers end up, but I don't see all 500,000 packs selling out in presale.