How much revenue is being generated by Trump's tariffs?

There has been some debate as to whether President Trump's tariffs are a negotiating tactic to get better terms of trade, or whether they are a revenue-raising policy.

It now looks like it's about revenue raising. The "drama" is simply about normalising the higher tariff rate. Example: tariffs on China were set at 34% on Liberation Day (April 2nd), the markets swooned, Trump jacked them up to 145% for four weeks, so the markets were mightily relieved when they came down to 30%. 30% has been normalised for China.

It looks like tariffs will settle in the 10% to 30% range. 10% for countries like the UK and Australia with whom the US has a trade surplus or balanced trade. 20% for places like the EU and Korea with whom the US runs a large trade deficit. 30% for China which is a strategic rival.

So how much money has been raised from these tariffs?

The US Customs Service collects tariffs daily when goods arrive in US ports. On the 22nd of each month, they send the money to the US Treasury. Here is a graph showing cumulative tariff receipts by the Treasury this year:

source

Tariff receipts are $29 billion more than this time last year.

Bear in mind that from April 9th most of the world experienced a temporary tariff of 10%. And that from April 9th to May 12th, the tariff on China was 145%, and the ships stopped sailing, so tariff receipts would have been zero on goods from China for that period because no Chinese goods were arriving.

Once we're past July 9th and most of the world is put on a 15% to 30% tariff, the money rolling in should increase.

Of course some of these tariffs are being passed to the consumer in the form of higher prices. But those are price rises from a low base.

If - and it's a big if - the tariffs raise sufficient revenue to reduce the budget deficit, no future administration is going to get rid of them, even though they are a stealth tax.