Thinking Through the "Price" of Aura Licenses and Midnight Potions...

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So I'm a little mercenary when it comes to Land, and I've been trying to figure out whether it's worth it to spunk some of my precious research points on an aura license...

Details here... https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@splinterlands/midnight-potions-a-new-era-of-land-based-crafting

NB in the calculations below I'm working on double PP for magical, I can't imagine that many people are going to be producing AURA on a regular plot, it's just not worth it!

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It's 60K DEC for a license...

In terms of opportunity cost.... or what you could earn producing and selling base resources compared to staking to get back that 10K research....

  • 100 000 PP staked to LAND would yield you 10 research and hour, it would take you 41 days to earn 10 000 research.
  • To be able to claim that research you also need wood/ stone/ iron, so the actual cost in PP is actually 400K PP
  • (I'm discounting the cost of grain as that's just universal across any resource)
  • 400 000 PP staked to Wood, the cheapest resource would yield you just under 60K DEC over 41 days.

So you'd need to sell 60K DEC's worth of potions before you're in profit..

And the cost of producing Aura...

It's the same as ORE, doubled.

  • So 100K PP on Aura would yield you 60 potions a day, not bad!
  • But you'd need an additional 400K PP to be able to harvest that (wood, stone, ore)
  • Over a month that's 2400 potions
  • If they sell for 25 DEC, that's the same income as above from just selling wood.
  • Factor in the cost of the license (the capital cost) = double that for the first month
    = You need to make 50 DEC per potion to make it worth switching from base resources.

NB you'd need to make slightly more if yer comparing to Stone OFC.

Thoughts...

I'll be opening up an aura lab, just one because...

  1. I have a nice chunk of research just sitting there anyway, doing nothing.
  2. It's only opportunity cost for the license.
  3. I may as well spend that research now, when it comes to the SoP, the main use case there's almost 100% my rewards will be based on a dice roll, I'm not a whale.
  4. I just want to DO SOMETHING with my land!
  5. I can always revert back after a month!
  6. DEFI logic says potions will be overpriced for a week or two, so SELL!
  7. There may be more use cases for AURA!
  8. I might just spunk some Time Crystals too.

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13 comments
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Well, the whole midnight potion thing has been a bit of a frustrating rollercoaster for me. First blow was finding out that there was a min Research requirement to produce the Permit for an Aura Lab. I never really focused on Research and only has 6.5K when the 10K requirement was announced. At least 10K was in the lower end of expectations, and not out of reach

So, I bought another Magical rare , and fired it up for Research, calculating I'd have the requisite 10K Research in time for April 29th, only to then see a fresh announcement that all the Research had to ne in the same region (this was not the case initially), so now I will be short on Research on day one and miss the early flush of demand.

Rather annoying, but at lease I should be able to produce my own potions for my Alchemy packs sometime near pack opening day.

C'est la vie, I'm used to being behind the curve, but a cohesive and ahead of time announcement would have been nice, I could have done things differently

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Oh man that is rough! The same region thing sucks! I guess just stick with it and push for that research, producing your own will be better in the long run at least.

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If someone needs to produce research now to be able to buy a permit, that's a bad deal.

If someone already has research, and since only current research is spent, not lifetime research, it may very well be worth it, at least in the beginning.

You really think their price will only be 25-50 DEC? That would be disappointing! That would be around the price of the Alchemy or Legendary potions in the shop, but which most people earn, don't buy. That won't be the case for Midnight potions, except for Land owners, who can produce their own.

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These are super cheap to produce and now all the whales are going in hard, the price is coming down, maybe 50 DEC... but then that's $0.50 for a dice roll... what is it... 0.025% chance in an alchemy pack?

Also, they're worth less for the standard packs.

It's typical SL - they are worth more to the whales, who are buying the alchemy packs, worth less to the mass of players who buy the standard packs. Whales are going to mainly make their own potions, there simply won't be the demand there from the rest.

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The prices are a classic fight to the bottom

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It's more profitable than stone until it hits around 50 DEC, I'm not sure what the price will settle at, probably around that, most gold foil pack buyers are gonna generate enough for their own use.

Be interesting to see where we go from here!

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it is profitable if it sells:)

Stone always sells

Iron always sells

You don't have to find buyers for that. You sell into the pool

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