On the Uncertain Maths of Midnight Potions
If I had an eight year old kid* I'd get them into Splinterlands, not because it's a great game, but because it's a great maths exercise...
The basic maths of midnight potions...
According the most excellent Streemlit app there is currently...
- 153 000 000 PP (boosted) on AURA.
- That is enough to produce 76 500 Aura an hour (153M * 0.0005)
- Or 45 900 potions a day.
- That's roughly enough for 9K packs a day.
- Or 135K packs by the 14th May.
Current sales figures are:
- 10K legendary
- 50K alchemy
- 100K standard
= 160K packs...
So currently there will not be enough potions assuming people want to open around 75% of their packs on 13 May and use potions on ALL of them.
However if people are prepared to WAIT a few days, then it's only going to take an additional 3 days for sufficient potions to be produced to open ALL packs using potions.
Assuming all surplus potions are listed.
HOWEVER, and this is the big HOWEVER.... people may decide it's simply not worth using potions on standard packs, the chances of getting a black foil card are so ridiculously small that if you've read the small-print, you probably wouldn't bother using them on standard packs....
Black foil chances...
- Legendary = 0.125%
- Alchemy = 0.25%
- Standard = 0.025%
So obvs if yer buying midnight potions then you're getting much more value if you're using them on Alchemy packs, it hardly seems worth buying them for use on standard packs.
Currently potions are selling for $0.08, and for that you're getting a dice role of an additional 0.025% per card. NB that's pretty much the same odds as getting three dice all showing the same number... maybe that will tempt you, who knows...?
The unknowns...
There are AT LEAST four unknown variables....
- Impatience around pack opening...?
- The differential demand for potions on different packs...?
- The whale floor...?
- The last minute demand for Conclave Arcana packs...?
Impatience...
There is going to be some pressure given that people are going to want to load up their conflict wagons, but then again is a week or two really that much time to have to wait...? Especially if people have to buy more wagons...
Differential demand for potions based on packs...
You're getting 10 times the increased odds from using a midnight potion on an alchemy pack compared to a standard pack, and 5 times for a leg, I'd say there will be 100% usage on the two expensive packs, probably NOT on the standard packs.
The whale floor...
Vugtis controls around 10% of the demand, the next few whales down probably up to 25%, it's not enough for a cabal to control the price, but it will impact a little in the first few weeks of pack opening IF the top Aura producers insist on keeping the majority of their potions listed at a certain price.
Last minute demand...?
There probably will be a last minute rush, I think it's unlikely CA is gonna be anywhere near a sell-out, I just don't think there's enough demand out there ATM, but this is unknown.....
Final thoughts...
I just can't see the price of midnight potions going much higher than the current floor price. I don't think black foil cards are going to be that well priced. They may well look nice, but their utility isn't that much greater than regular cards after all. They cool down quicker, they give you an extra 20% SPS, not that big a deal IMO.
Of course I am more than happy to be wrong about this, but I'm pricing my potions below the 10 cents mark all the way!
*Note I'm working on the principle that my eight year old would be pretty advanced for a UK child, a statistical impossibility by US standards, or a retard by Chinese standards, but that's by the by.....
FYI...
https://peakd.com/hive-13323/@splinterlands/introducing-conclave-arcana
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Thanks for sharing! - @azircon
Look up again. Vugtis can increase production at will. Also his production cost is the lowest probably between 1 cent and 2 cents. But his requirements are also likely the highest. Vugtis can also decrease production at will. I haven’t sold any and likely will not sell any.
Wildcards are Mancer, Brave, Matt. They all have high requirements but they haven’t produced much.
Depending on how valuable blackfoils are we can light a fire under this market.
It's interesting times, very unpredictable! The Gold packs look like far the best value to me?
Yes, Alchemy packs are the only pack one should buy if they are on budget :)
I can't believe I said that.
Famous last words :)
Tomorrow I have enough Research to buy my permit :-) , I have a feeling there will be a flush of production coming on line in the near term and once ppl have satisfied their own needs a glut of supply.
The timing of those waves will be very hit and miss, too hit and miss, I reckon selling everything into the early demand is the way to go, once you have enough for your Alchemy and Legendary packs ofc
Oh! the fun of speculation...love it!!!
You don't go broke taking two birds from the bush ,as nobody says.....
I think that's it.... early demand, this IS DEFI at the end of day, you generally can't go wrong with selling into that early demand!
It's hard to predict how many packs people will open on day one. I think its more worthwhile to hold onto the legendary packs as long as possible. I unfortunately am weak willed. People might switch off aura production once they have opened as many packs as they have. Lots of variables.
It makes it pretty interesting for a while at least!
be careful with potions and witches
Will also be interesting who will be opening packs immediately and who wait and just using the packs on the wagons...
Personally i lean to last wait a bit till i collect more potions if i can control my urge to open.
I can't see that much temptation to use packs on wagons! But one cannot be sure, too many variables!
I think you can use rebellion cards combined with ca packs on a wagon if i'm not mistaken. This gives you more points per wagon 🤔
Honestly the black potions don't stand an argument about being overpriced, btw I'm not sure if they're profitable right now, too lazy to do the math. The great incognita isn't the demand imho, is what will be their utility in the future, as aura and potions will be needed to craft other objects, so maybe is clever to save some for that.