Can gas prices predict the US election...?!?
If you want to know who is going to win the US Presidential election, you should keep an eye on the Petrol Prices, at least according to this recent CNN artilce.
Fuel prices could well have more impact on the outcome than other issues such as the economy, climate change or immigration.
The average price for petrol in the US is currently around $3.59. This is about halfway between the Pandemic low of $2 and the more recent high of $5 after Russia's invastion of Ukraine.
Analysis of past presidential results suggests the outcome correlates with the price of petrol.
if the price falls towards $3, Biden should win, if it's over $4 then Trump should win.
This is because petrol prices are very visible, and volatile, we can see them changing every week, every time we drive past a petrol station.
Petrol may only make up 4% of the average American's budget, but the act of filling up once a week means you really feel that price change: $40 for a tank is a massive difference to $80!
There's nothing else quite like it - it's a sizeable chunk of money that can vary every week, and I also guess petrol is symbolic of America - it represents individual freedom, and it's a necessity for work and leisure, so basically your life!
If the price is going down, you feel good, and so you stick with the safe option, if the price is going up, you vote for change.
I mean it's maybe not that simply, but it will be interesting to keep an eye on whether the correlation holds true for this year's presidential race!
Especially when there's so much other DRAMA surrounding the election!
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Ummmmm, no.
This used to be an important metric that could sorta tell if people were conservative or liberal. And so, could tell the swing of the election.
However, today, their is too much manipulation, and this isn't really going to be an election. This is going to be war.
And the price of gasoline is completely bogus.
Gasoline is a by-product of splitting oil how we do.
(there are better ways, but they were buried to keep fuel prices and corporate profits high)
The amount of gasoline available is how much diesel is needed.
This is why gasoline is THE fuel in America, where most of the refineries are, and diesel is THE fuel in Europe.
Fair play I quite like the idea though!
The government recently released from the strategic oil reserves with no real threat on the horizon other than election day.
Congress had mandated that. And the gasoline from the northeast reserve was never intended for long-term storage. That’s what the strategic petroleum reserve is for. Gasoline has a limited shelf life.
https://apnews.com/article/gas-prices-biden-northeast-reserve-6fa669ef3c963d212852513e4b312060
Gasoline does have a shelf life. But I doubt this is the whole story.
It's like a furniture store that has had 'going out of business' sales for several years. You can always find one that actually did go out of business. One reserve tells the whole story? I'm skeptical.
Sociology 💛