RE: LeoThread 2025-12-24 04-17

avatar

You are viewing a single comment's thread:

Grok is grasping what a rival failed to understand, despite attempting coauthorship. The final version follows



0
0
0.000
3 comments
avatar

The paper argues that binary yes/no forecasts differ from continuous real-world payoffs, and that binary predictions don't always lead to optimal decisions under uncertainty, especially with fat-tailed distributions

0
0
0.000
avatar

Apparent psychological "biases" can arise from conflating those two types of outcomes

0
0
0.000
avatar

Drawing on option theory, it shows how greater uncertainty changes payoffs and questions the real-world usefulness of forecasting metrics like Brier scores

0
0
0.000