On-Chain Metrics Showing the Pain Faced by Short-Term Bitcoin Investors Since October 2025

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Since October 2025 BTC is in a Price Decline Phase with investing giving paper losses

BTC’s slide below its Bull Market Floor early this Feb noticed!

BTC fell below its Bull Floor price of $68,674 earlier this February and is now oscillating around this level, struggling to reclaim it as support. This level represents the previous cycle’s peak from November 2021 and acts as a structural reference point for determining whether BTC remains in a broader bull phase.

My earlier articles written last year had done a evaluation of evolving Crypto Market scenario – where a criterion of the Crypto Market Phase (Bull or Bear) was contingent on Total and Bitcoin maintaining support on their Bull Floor point.

Crypto Bull Floor Shock: Why the Bull Cycle Isn’t Over

Earlier declines saw Total Crypto Valuation break its Bull Floor of $3.05T while BTC held above support, current conditions show deeper weakness, with Total market capitalization now near $2.26T and BTC only recently attempting to recover above the Bull Floor zone.

It may be premature to declare a structural bear market; however, for investors who accumulated BTC since October 2025, market conditions have practically resembled a bear phase, with holdings trading below purchase value.

Tradingview chart
Will Bitcoin manage to find support at its Bull Floor Price level?

BTC’s Price decline Phase left short-term investors incurring paper losses

Let’s picture this phase where investing in BTC is unprofitable.

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BTC Whales who purchased BTC since Oct 2025 find the value of their holdings decline

BTC recently experienced a 50% decline from its Oct 2025 ATH of 124,988$ to a low of 60,200$ with this steep price decline phase getting concluded on Feb 6th.

BTC investors who invested during this timeline have incurred unrealized losses on paper.

Evaluating the BTC chart – DCA buyers who believe in buying the Dip have bought BTC – when it fell 35% from the Top with the BTC dip of Nov 20th 2025 to 80,700$ immediately bought.

Then followed a BTC accumulation phase between 83,900$ to 90,000$ zone with buyers appearing to consider BTC below 90,000$ threshold as undervalued and a reasonable price to purchase the asset.

Dip buyers again came in purchasing BTC when it fell to 60,200$ - with an accumulation phase starting with buying of BTC below its Bull Floor price.
These latest set of BTC Dip buyers who procured BTC below its Bull Floor Price have not faced paper losses.

We got to wait and watch BTC’s price action to see if BTC can find support at its Bull Floor Price for accumulation to take place here.

Gauging BTC holders profit/loss direction

The losses accumulated by BTC buyers during these severe price decline phases can be pictured noting the deviation between Market Cap Value and Realized Cap Value of BTC.

Market Cap Value of BTC is what we see reflected on CoinmarketCap, tradingview charts – it is derived multiplying the circulating supply of BTC with its spot price.

Realized Cap Value of BTC is the aggregated value of circulating BTC in the Bitcoin Network – with each BTC valued at the price it was last transacted on.

Bitcoin Network will have BTCs bought at different time-periods and price ranges still held unmoved in wallets now due to holders HOLD behavior. These BTCs will be valued at the price they were last transacted on when calculating their Realized Cap.

For ex, BTC purchased and moved into wallet on March 2023 will be priced at 20,300$, not the current price of Bitcoin. However, if this BTC gets moved now due to initiation of a sell transaction it’s price will be 68,000$.

Likewise a wallet containing BTC purchased during the BTC dip of Nov 22, 2025 to 81,000$, will be priced at that rate, not current rate when calculating Realized Cap of BTC

During Bitcoin’s bearish phases like now Market Cap of BTC declines faster than BTC Realized Cap.
Constant selling activity brings down BTC spot prices and Market Cap.

However, Realized Cap declines at a slower phase as many new buyers who brought BTC at higher prices HODL on believing BTC price will recover and appreciate over time in longer term time-frame.

At this phase the deviation between Realized Cap and Market Cap increases – depicting that BTC short-term investor holdings have declined from the Market price they were purchased on.

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Constant selling lead to spot price declines bringing value of Bitcoin’s Market Cap below its Realized Cap

During Bitcoin’s Bull Phases constant buying activity increases spot price of BTC. This leads to increase in both Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap. However, the Market Cap Value rises above the Realized Cap Value with spot prices rising constantly.

This depicts that even recent short-term buyers of BTC are making profits on paper.

Newsbtc Reference Article on the differential between Bitcoin's Market Cap and Realized Cap

MVRV-Z metric keeps score on deviation between Bitcoin’s Market Cap & Realized Cap

The MVRV-Z score measures the deviation between Bitcoin’s Market Cap and Realized Cap relative to historical norms.

A low MVRV-Z score denotes that BTC’s Market Cap is undervalued to its Realized Cap. Coinglass’s chart – shows that whenever MVRV-Z went below 0 – it coincided with BTC bottoms, providing a signal that BTC in a well corrected price zone for accumulation.

The MVRZ-Z metric Analytics procured from Coinglass
Currently the MVRV-Z score reads low at 0.46 but is still above 0.

High MVRV scores denotes that BTC Market Cap has increased considerably above its Realized Cap – and that Bitcoin’s Price may be overvalued.

The exact high MVRV score that gives a sell signal has not been consistent and is lowering each cycle. During BTC latest top formed on Oct 2025 when BTC price touch 120,500$, the MVRV score was 2.45.

This may be signalling that BTC is being brought more these years than in prior times – so with constant larger volume purchases taking BTC to price peaks – the deference between Market Cap Value and Realized Cap Value of BTC is having lesser gap.

BTC Price decline effects on Strategy’s Financial Position

Strategy is one of the whales been accumulating BTC during its current price declining phase.

Holding above 713,502 BTC, Strategy is currently the largest Corporate BTC holder. The company has been in Market News with the lingering question on the impact of BTC’s price on MSTR stock.

Strategy has been raising funds to fund its BTC acquisitions – through issuance of Equity, debt and convertibles.

Earlier there was some chatter in Market news – that since the average cost Strategy acquired BTC is around 76,000$, the company would buy BTC at this range to support BTC price to be above this threshold.

However, there is clarification from company management – that Strategy is likely to face limitation on fulfilling its debt obligation only if BTC price were to fall to 8000$, because it’s at this point Strategy’s BTC reserves will equal its debt.

Yet, flexibility for Strategy to raise capital through share issues depends on 1xMCap, that is subject to the Market Capitalisation of its MSTR stock holdings at least being equal to the Market Capitalisation of its BTC holdings. Else, shareholders are bound to lose value.

Still, Strategy’s BTC acquisition vision is governed by Bitcoin Maximalist, Michael Saylor, he believes in BTC being a hard asset that will accrue tremendous value long-term, although during down cycles stresses will be there.

During BTC price rise phases – MSTR will be trading a premium to the company’s value of BTC holdings.

Strategy will keep accumulating BTC periodically whatever Market-cycle the asset is in.

Beincrypto Reference article on Strategy

These days Corporates, institutions and other wealthy whales are accumulating BTC. There are Fund Managers maintaining BTC ETFs. Now, with BTC being a regulated, legitimized financial instrument globally, this asset will keep getting purchased in large volumes. So, there is long-term conviction on the price appreciation potential of this asset class – that’s still thought of as Web3’s original, decentralized digital gold.

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