SPS Market Analysis Oct 24 – Oct 30 2025 | Splinterlands #486

Markets spent the week reacting to macro signals as the Fed indicated that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed. Bitcoin slid below $110k price, while Ether dropped below $4K. With dumptober living up to its name, will there be a Q4 revival in November? Regardless of the choppy price action, every week, there is an increase in institutional activity in the crypto ecosystem.

Circle's USDC officially surpassed Tether's USDT in on-chain activity for the first time, according to JPMorgan. Analysts attributed the shift to regulatory clarity and institutional preference for transparency. Also, validates the impact of the Genius Act's regulatory framework. JPMorgan tokenized a private equity fund on its Kinexys blockchain platform, streamlining fund distribution and real-time settlement for private banking clients. With over 13000 BTC mined and a 54% gross margin, CleanSpark's dual-track strategy (AI and Bitcoin mining) may mark a blueprint for future miners adapting to energy constraints and post-halving economics. CEO Matt Schultz explained that combining interruptible mining loads with constant AI demand helps utilities stabilize grids while diversifying revenue streams. The week also saw new spot crypto ETFs debut for Litecoin and Hedera (HBAR), expanding the ETF universe beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Canary Capital CEO Steven McClur described the launches as a marathon, not a sprint, noting strong early volumes.

Regulatory discussions dominated Washington, where crypto executives met with Senate Democrats to push the long-awaited Market Structure Bill. Despite delays from the ongoing government shutdown, progress continues. Lawmakers across parties reaffirmed their commitment to defining spot market oversight and addressing DeFi regulation.

SPS Weekly Performance Overview

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SPS traded essentially flat this week, closing down 1.5% from $0.00708 to $0.00697. But the price action reveals an important structural shift as the market is building higher lows and compressing into a range. Market cap remained stable near $3.3-3.4M throughout the week with little to no panic selling. The defined trading band between $0.00685 support and $0.0073 resistance is narrowing, creating the conditions for a breakout or breakdown. The technical structure shows repeated upper-wick rejections at $0.00730, confirming selling pressure at higher levels. But the higher lows pattern from October 24th onward keeps the bullish bias intact. This is classic accumulation behavior, which builds tension before the next directional move.

Trading volume declined throughout the week, dropping from $49877 on October 23rd to $38298 by October 30th - 23% decline. When markets compress on falling volume, they typically resolve with increased volatility in one direction. The current setup suggests we are approaching that inflection point.

Market Analysis -- Trends

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The recent HiveFest 10, which was held in Kuala Lumpur, released a presentation,

about Splinterlands' transition from company-led to community-directed governance. The presentation highlighted how Splinterlands has evolved into a contractor for the DAO rather than the central decision-maker. The DAO now funds much of the company's work, including a recent $1.2 million investment to build a mini set where the DAO will be the full beneficiary of funds generated.

The DAO's commitment to Hive integration was emphasized. The DAO has purchased over 1 million HIVE and 150000 HBD, directly addressing past criticism about a lack of alignment with the Hive ecosystem. The DAO uses its HIVE power to curate and connect with the broader Hive community while encouraging users to post on Hive. Also, the Crypto Gaming Recovery Fund continues expanding, with the fund now supporting 9-10 failed games with double-digit player signups so far.

Personally, double-digit signups from 9-10 failed games are not moving the needle yet on the splinterlands 5K daily active users. Also, the real test is whether the new economic model (doubled chest costs, reduced drop rates, SPS staking requirements) drives sustainable engagement and an increase in new player signups. Time will tell if the DAO's direction leads to genuine growth.

Concluding Thoughts

SPS declined 1.5% this past week, which is minor in comparison to the wider crypto market. The SPS technical structure is showing higher lows since October 24th, a stable market cap, and a tightening range, all point to either a volatile breakout or breakdown. The resistance at $0.00730-$0.00740 has held firm, but support at $0.00685-$0.00690 has been defended multiple times. The DAO's financial transparency and various activities it is involved in demonstrate a long-term commitment to the ecosystem. Whether these efforts translate to sustainable player growth remains the critical question.

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