SPS Market Analysis May 23 – May 29 2025 | Splinterlands #445

Bitcoin touched $112K, fake-breaked, and went back down to $109K on renewed tariff threats. Trump wants a 50% EU import tax and dropped a $2.5B BTC treasury buy. Combine that with low ETF inflows, and the next few weeks will be crucial to determine whether the past month's positive price action moves for BTC and ETH are organic. ETH hit $2.7k and then has been giving back by bouncing around the $2.6k range. Other altcoin majors like SOL and XRP have followed a similar pattern. Switching to the long-term focus, the GENIUS Act is the first real US attempt at stablecoin regulation. If it clears, what structural change will it bring? How will it impact the macro picture? At the moment, the US Dollar is stable, equities are showing signs of drifting, and volatility is dying. All these signals point to a coiled market, and the last time we compressed like this, BTC did +30% in two weeks. Let us see if history repeats.

SPS Weekly Performance Overview

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The past seven days of SPS price have been all noise and no breakout! SPS ranged from $0.0098 to $0.0102 and closed the 29th at $0.01009. Nothing meaningful will happen unless we punch through $0.0105 with real volume. Until then, chop shop.

Market Analysis -- Trends

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The most positive thing to take away from the past week is that SPS is holding steady. While other crypto games are pulling the plug, splinterlands keeps moving forward and has surpassed its 7th year in existence. DEC's near peg and over 40M SPS were burned in the last two weeks. The SPS supply is still sitting at 2.7 billion tokens, so all the burning matters. The less SPS supply in circulation, the better, and when there is a manageable supply, maybe there will be more speculation on the SPS price.

Market Analysis -- Volumes & Liquidity

The average daily volume over the past week was $171k, but we are not seeing the growth. To break the key resistance levels, we need consistent $200K+ days. If SPS holds here without a pump, it will continue to be sustainable. If it rolls below $150K/day volume, it is at risk of slippage and breaking below support levels.

Market Analysis -- Support & Resistance

Key support levels held at $0.0098. This level has formed a new base, but it is correlated to BTC and ETH. If BTC nukes below $105K again, I expect the key support levels to break and $0.0095 to get tested quickly. On the upside: $0.0102, then $0.0105, then the ceiling at $0.0111. That range capped all upside since March. If this level breaks that then $0.012 opens, but do not count on it without a catalyst. Institutional ETF inflows, or BTC breaking through another all-time high, may be all valid triggers. Absent that, it is wishful thinking.

What is important: if we break $0.0098, there is no nearby demand until $0.0092. That is a 9% drop on thin books. Watch these levels accordingly.

Concluding Thoughts

SPS has been steady and is showing what recovery looks like in a dead Web 3.0 gaming market. While you cannot go a day without seeing another Web 3.0 game struggling and/or closing, SPS continues to survive and grind. It is not mooning but forming a solid, sustainable base. Conclave Arcana has proven to be a massive success and has also helped in having 41m SPS burnt in the past two weeks. And the kudos for this are the splinterlands community -- the hardcore base that continues to keep the game going.

Bottom line: if volume holds and $0.0098 support stays solid, SPS earns the right to reprice later this year. If not, we bleed to sub-penny and re-evaluate.

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