The Latin American Report # 694

Costa Rica

Although with the shadow of the vote from still undecided citizens influencing the analysis, a recent estimate of the results of the presidential election in Costa Rica—scheduled for this Sunday—places the right-wing incumbent government in a solid position to retain power. "Regarding voting intention, Laura Fernández, the government candidate, leads the preferences with 44% support, which would guarantee her a first-round victory," indicates the Center for Research and Political Studies affiliated with the state-run University of Costa Rica. It was back in 2010 the last time in which the first-round winner obtained the minimum percentage needed (40%) to ensure his/her triumphal arrival at 51st Street of the Zapote district in that instance; and it was precisely a woman, Laura Chinchilla, who achieved that result then.

Thus, Fernández, a political scientist expert in public policy—a great calling card in principle—would be the second woman to assume the most important office in the nation. For the moment, in line with her governing party's stance, she is betting on the hardline policy and language against organized crime that has been so successful in other countries like Argentina or Chile, heavily inspired by the Bukele model. In truth, drug trafficking has been changing the face of this Central American nation for years, which in its best days was characterized by very high levels of citizen security. If confirmed, as seems very likely, Fernández's victory would solidify the recent trend of the electorate favoring right-wing parties in local and national elections.

A New Regionalism?

In a clear sign of how much the political landscape in the region has changed, President Lula da Silva held a calm meeting with the Chilean president-elect, the ultra-conservative José Antonio Kast. Both agreed to advance in strategic areas such as infrastructure, renewable energy, trade, and tourism, as Brasilia bets on an initiative called the South American Integration Routes, which foresees the construction of bioceanic corridors to improve physical connectivity between Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina, and Chile. Note, for example, that except for the first, the rest of the countries are now strongly dominated by the right. The meeting took place at the Latin American version of the Davos Forum, held in Panama under the auspices of the Development Bank of Latin America with the presence of the main leaders of Colombia, Guatemala, Jamaica, and Ecuador. This EFE wire report elaborates on this issue, with Lula speaking of moving beyond "ideological disputes."

Ecuador

In a concerning development, the country's Prosecutor's Office raided the homes of three important politicians from former President Rafael Correa's party, including that of former presidential candidate Luisa González. Those targeted are presumed guilty of the crime of "organized crime for money laundering purposes," for allegedly channeling "illicit money (in cash) from Venezuela to finance the 2023 presidential campaign." "Instead of fighting drug trafficking, this miserable Government only knows how to persecute," denounced Correa. The electoral authority was conducting an independent—but perfectly synchronized—investigation into the handling of González's campaign accounts. She has been unable to defeat Noboa in the last two contests, although there were strong fraud allegations in last year's presidential election.

Regional news brief

• Guatemalan authorities reported the significant seizure of 5 tons of cocaine in an operation carried out in Puerto Quetzal, with a current market value of over $86 million. This is the largest seizure to date under the government of Bernardo Arévalo, a president who has shown himself to be quite pragmatic in his foreign policy.
  

• A new air accident brings mourning to the region following the fatal crash today of an aircraft from the Satena airline in the Colombian locality of Curasica, department of Norte de Santander, in which its 15 passengers lost their lives. A member of the Colombian lower legislative chamber is reported to have been on board.
  

• According to the Salvadoran monetary authority, the cumulative amount of remittances received via cryptocurrencies fell by over 30% last year, a potential indicator that Nayib Bukele's pro-Bitcoin policy has not fully taken off and become entrenched in people's daily reality. In total, approximately $58 million in crypto was transferred during 2025, equivalent to about $28 million less than the previous year. Consequently, what this represents of the total remittances received does not exceed 0.6%. According to official figures, the Salvadoran government holds 7,517 units of bitcoin, a crypto-asset it has continued to buy despite IMF misgivings and pressure.
  

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This is all for today’s report.