The Latin American Report # 690

Venezuela exceeded 1,080,000 barrels per day in oil production last year, a dynamic that returned the country to 2019 levels, when the first Trump administration unleashed its first strong round of sanctions on Caracas. In Washington, according to what some media have tried to sell, Delcy Rodríguez's role in this growth would have been a factor in her favor in the decision about who would remain in charge of political affairs in the Miraflores Palace. Compared to 2024, the production jump is equivalent to more than 17%, according to a report by EFE. Graciela Urdaneta, the chief economist of the firm Ecoanalítica, stresses that 200,000 barrels could be added to the average daily balance this year.

The powerful president of the legislative apparatus, Jorge Rodríguez, brother of the acting president, announced that next Tuesday, in a process that will proceed, as usual, without any setbacks, the second discussion of the reform bill for the hydrocarbon law will advance. For me, this initiative is not organic. It was undertaken under pressure from Washington to make investment in oil exploration and extraction activities more attractive for foreign companies. The narrative to defend the move is as absurd as the one that says relations with the United States are to guarantee Maduro's return.

The Rodríguez siblings argue that the basis of the reform lies in the so-called "Anti-Blockade Law," but the truth is that everything is happening after January 3rd, or in other words, when Maduro is not there—I include here the recent call for a national political dialogue—, and also that the referred law speaks of a context that, in practice, is fading away. Meanwhile, the controversy around the release of allegedly political prisoners continues, as the standards and counts of the government, the opposition, and civil society organizations do not match in the slightest.

This, in any case, does not explain the inoperability of the land or air forces during an attack that lasted more than an hour.

Bolivia

Is there more than a narrative here 👇? For me, according to the conclusive evidence available so far, no.

Honduras

Between tomorrow, Sunday, and Tuesday, Honduras's political shift should materialize, moving from day to night—or from night to day, depending on perspective—in ideological terms following the reconfiguration of the legislative power and the presidency, in both cases favorable to the right. Honduran elections were, at least among the cases I have been able to see and analyze in real time, some of the most horrible, crude, and scandalous in all history, between events and "arguments." I am not saying that, for example, in the case of the presidential election, Nasry Asfura is not the legitimate winner, only that transparency was violently kidnapped.

Regional news brief

• Ecuadorian police conducted three raids in the violent coastal province of Guayas, resulting in the arrest of 11 alleged criminals, and the seizure of 12 kilos of marijuana, $100,000 in cash, as well as weapons and ammunition. Violence started the year as it ended the previous one, on the rise, especially in the coastal zone.
  

• In Colombia, joint operations by the Armed Forces ended with the death of two FARC-EP dissidents in the central department of Meta—including the security chief of an important leader—and the capture of two others in the southwestern and violent department of Cauca. In the first case, the military forces struck the so-called General Staff of Blocks and Fronts, while the operation in Cauca was carried out against the Central General Staff, with one of the two arrestees alleged to be the third leader of the largest dissident group of the extinct FARC.
  

This is all for today’s report.