The Latin American Report # 683
This last Friday was marked by new developments that allow us to continue building a profile of the new era opened in Venezuela after the violent, contested capture last Saturday of the de facto president there, Nicolás Maduro. Given that we haven't talked much about this in some time, I want to briefly zoom in on why I defend referring to Maduro as the former, de facto Venezuelan president, and not simply as the president, a category that major agencies and media like AP or even Axios did recognize for him. For me, the reason is that the veteran Chavista leader never managed to certify his victory transparently, while, if evidence is concerned, the opposition was at least more efficient and proactive in defending its case. Now imprisoned in New York, I don't know if he is aware of everything happening in the old Miraflores Palace, from where a process aimed at re-establishing diplomatic relations with Washington was announced.
Obviously, this is a legitimate move, but, again, the timing and especially the narrative are disastrous. I emphasize the narrative because Caracas is producing rather bland and incoherent propaganda. Are they seriously going to defend the re-establishment of relations as an action that will allow them to discuss, within the framework of the "international order," the blatant aggression of January 3rd? Also important, who is calling the shots? Chavismo is showing, outwardly, unity, but we don't know to what extent there is consensus among all the important actors that make up its leadership, namely Cabello, Padrino—both indicted in the same case against Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores—, and the Rodríguez siblings. The truth is that, for the moment, everything lords it over Trump. Another quite disconcerting message is this one from the Ministry of Hydrocarbons:
The U.S. and Venezuela achieve the return of the vessel Minerva to Venezuelan waters
The authorities of the United States and Venezuela announce the successful joint operation for the return to the country of the vessel Minerva, which sailed without payment or authorization from Venezuelan authorities.
Thanks to this first successful joint operation, the vessel is navigating back to Venezuelan waters for its safeguarding and pertinent actions.
Caracas, January 9, 2026.
Meaning, the Venezuelan government is now also collaborating in the maritime blockade of oil shipments that, for years, they have been forced to carry out using the so-called dark or ghost fleet. At the same time, it seems as if they are acknowledging in the cited communiqué a sort of insubordination, whether from within some government authority—a potential manifestation of internal tensions—or even from those managing the tanker, that is: its crew or the final recipients of the crude, who contracted its services.
Yesterday Friday, during the meeting with leaders of major oil companies, many of them were cautious about any possible large involvement in the Venezuelan market, deemed "uninvestable" in its current configuration by Exxon's CEO Darren Woods. "There has to be durable investment protections, and there has to be change to the hydrocarbon laws in the country," Wood said, perhaps marking for Trump the next key demand he must make to Caracas. A senior official from the Spanish company Repsol, which has remained active in Venezuela to the extent that it had the blessing of the OFAC, told Trump instead that they are ready to triple their current, rather poor, production in Venezuela of 45,000 barrels per day. The South American country owns the largest oil reserves in the world, amounting to more than 300 billion barrels of crude.
Regional news brief
The former Minister of Public Works, Services and Housing of Bolivia Édgar Montaño was captured as part of an investigation into alleged economic damage to the state, valued at approximately 2.5 million dollars, during the previous administration. The very Luis Arce is also charged and in preventive detention, although for acts attributed to him during his tenure as a minister under his mentor-turned-rival Evo Morales. Lawfare mode activated there.
Also in Bolivia, the Central Obrera Boliviana—the country's main trade union federation—has broken off dialogue with the government and has called instead for a "national revolution" in the context of protests against the controversial elimination of the fuel subsidy decreed by the new president Rodrigo Paz, which many experts label as necessary to clean up the national accounts. Yesterday, more than 50 roadblocks were reported, with the participation of teachers, merchants, and other social actors. In this sense, seven Colombian tourists even missed their flight as a result of these blockades, while there is also talk of stranded Norwegians and a group of 50 Peruvians traveling by bus who have not been able to cross into their country.
This is all for today’s report.
